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Friday, August 24, 2007

Day One Preview

IAAF preview

The first event, the men's marathon, begins at 6:00 PM (Eastern) today. I guess if you don't live in the Eastern time zone, you're used to figuring out the offset--I'm not, and even though I have a mathematics degree I always screw it up. Thank you, World Clock!

Net coverage: WCSN at 6 PM tonight and 5:45 AM tomorrow

TV coverage: CBC 3:00-6:00 PM tomorrow; Versus 6:00-8:00 PM tomorrow

Final events:
6:00 PM: Men's marathon (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN preview, Let's Run preview)
all day: Women's Heptathlon, day one (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN preview)
7:40 AM: Men's shot put (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN preview)
8:50 AM: Women's 10,000m (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN preview, Let's Run preview)

I'm going to do a write-up on a more or less daily basis, but the timing of this meet couldn't be worse for me. Tomorrow is my team's first meet, tonight's pre-meet dinner begins at 6:00, and the first (and therefore busiest) week of school begins Monday. I won't get any analysis up until 6:00 PM at the earliest, and maybe as late as 10:00.

Track on Stupid TV

At 4 PM (Eastern) on Fox Reality Channel, Mo Greene will be on Blind Date.

Thursday, August 23, 2007

Osaka Start Lists

...are up.

All Alan Webb, Alll The Time

The always-professional Tim Layden has a nice article on Alan Webb in today's Sports Illustrated. Just yesterday he was on the front page of the Washington Post and had a writeup in USA Today. British bookies list him as the men's 1500m favorite (2-1 odds).

All this is nice, but I can't help thinking that it's more of the same expectations that he couldn't possibly have fulfilled in the past. If Webb bombs, he'll be considered damaged goods by the media until he wins an Olympic gold medal. If he only medals, it will get an "Oh, that's nice" treatment (especially if Lagat beats him). And if he should actually win, it will be treated by the US sports media as little but a stepping stone to next year's Olympics, giving them an entire year to set up the expectations even higher. In short, nothing will be good enough.

I agree that there's almost no such thing as bad sports publicity, save corruption or crime. But the whole scene makes me a bit nervous. There are multiple distance runners in the US capable of medaling or even winning next week. Why concentrate on just one?

Predictions comparison

T&FN finally mailed out its preview the other day. There's an essential dilemma in doing this kind of stuff; you want to have enough time to read and digest the material before the meet, but you also want the details to be up-to-date.

Anyway, I did my pre-meet picks before theirs were released. For the most part, I've picked the same winners as they have. When we disagree, it's probably because they're better at making picks than I am. But I thought I'd at least defend mine.

Men's 800m
Their pick: Yuriy Borzakovskiy (Russia)
My pick: Belal Mansour Ali (Bahrain)
Justification: Ali is listed for the 800 but apparently not running it. I think Borza will be runner-up anyway due to his unimodal and overly-simplistic race strategy.

Men's 1500m
Their pick: Bernard Lagat (USA)
My pick: Belal Mansour Ali (Bahrain)
Justification: They say Lagat because of big-meet experience and recent good races. I say he's old and even his best races were inferior to Ali's. Note that British bookmakers' odds have Ali at 9-2 and Lagat at 16-1, with Webb as the favorite at 2-1.

Men's 5000m
Their pick: Tariku Bekele (Ethiopia)
My pick: Eliud Kipchoge (Kenya)
Justification: Kipchoge has very good speed, which he has used to win big meets before. If T&FN can use "experience" to justify picking someone to win, so can I.

Men's Pole Vault
Their pick: Brad Walker (USA)
My pick: Steve Hooker (Australia)
Justification: Walker has been too inconsistent.

Men's Hammer Throw
Their pick: Koji Murofushi (Japan)
My pick: Ivan Tikhon (Belarus)
Justification: Murofushi, 11th on the yearly list, has thrown over 77 meters only once this year.

Men's Decathlon
Their pick: Brian Clay (USA)
My pick: Andrey Kravchenko (Belarus)
Justification: Clay has only finished one decathlon in the last two seasons. Kravchenko is a star on the rise.

Women's 100m
Their pick: Torri Edwards (USA)
My pick: Veronica Campbell (Jamaica)
Justification: When conditions are taken into account, Campbell's times are clearly superior to Edwards'. While 200m results should be taken with a grain of salt, Campbell thrashed Edwards at the distance in London.

Women's 800m
Their pick: Olga Kotlyarova (Russia)
My pick: Kenia Sinclair (Jamaica)
Justification: None.

Women's Long Jump
Their pick: Lyudmila Kolchanova (Russia)
My pick: Tatyana Lebedeva (Russia)
Justification: Lebedeva is a supreme big-meet competitor and Kolchanova is still a bit green. But I'm probably going to be wrong here.

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Osaka Marathon Preview

Picking these kinds of races are always damn near impossible. Marathon careers are so short that once someone proves themselves a consistent big-time winner they're almost over the hill. And unlike the big-city invitational marathons, every dark horse is here. So I'm not doing it.

Instead, I'll look at how the race might affect the World Marathon Majors standings.

MEN
Abderrahim Goumri (Morocco) is the only athlete in the top ten of the 2006-07 standings even entered in the race. This is only his second marathon ever. If he did win, he'd move up to a tie for second, which pays out...nothing. However, he'd take the lead in the 2007-08 standings and put himself in a very good position for next year's payout. The only athletes I could see outrunning him are the Japanese.

WOMEN
Zhou Chunxiu (China) is T&FN's favorite and currently seventh in the 2006-07 standings, and even with a win she could only get to second. Galina Bogomolova (Russia) is also entered (currently third, could move to second by winning). So there's nothing on the line here for this year's championship.

As far as next year's championship goes, though, there is a lot on the line. Zhou won in London and another win here would put her in the driver's seat. Noting that she's completed twelve marathons in the last four years, I'd say she's approaching the downside of her career so she'd better not waste any opportunities she has. No one else who has scored any points in the '07-'08 competition is entered.

Osaka Multis Predictions

Men

Gold - Andrei Krauchanka (Belarus). Has won twice this year, including beating Šebrle at Götzis.

Silver - Roman Šebrle (Czech Republic).

Bronze - Dmitriy Karpov (Kazakhstan). If he wins, we'll get to find out if his national anthem is really the one from Borat, or if they just made it up.

Women

Gold - Carolina Klüft (Sweden). Until she's beaten, she'll always be the favorite.

Silver - Lyudmila Blonska (Ukraine).

Bronze - Jessica Ennis (Great Britain).

Monday, August 20, 2007

IAAF World Rankings Kaput

Officially.
Discuss.

The IAAF unveiled its own World Rankings a few years back. They were somewhat akin to those used in professional tennis and golf, but but not quite as useful. In fact, sometimes they were downright awful.

I respect and honor Track & Field News' annual world rankings; the format is simple, the criteria are objective, and a subjective "town meeting" of great minds determine the results. They have been recocgnized as THE world rankings for over half a century.

Still, the teeming millions hunger for more. tafnut: "perhaps someone could use the T&FN methodology (assuming T&FN is too busy itself to do it) to come up with a 'better mousetrap' to serve the world's real fans." on an interim basis. Well, I was going to wait a year to roll this out, as I am in no way ready, but I'll at least explain my idea.

The IAAF more or less pioneered the system of a season-long points race (the Grand Prix circuit) that qualified the top athletes to a season-ending championship (the GP Final). NSACAR and the PGA have stolen the idea. Nowadays they call it the World Athletics Tour and the World Athletics Final. The tour encompasses every invitational meet that means anything, and they still keep season-long standings. I like it because you can see exactly what one athlete needs to do in order to leapfrog another.

But the points standings system has drawbacks. First, it doesn't encompass all meaningful meets. The upcoming World Championships don't count, and neither does the World Final. International and regional games and cups (e.g., Pan-Am, Euro Cup) don't count, and neither do national championships. Indoor track and cross country are totally left out. The now-defunct World Rankings addressed this, but attempted to shove everything into a one-size-fits-all formula and obviously it didn't work. More to the point, the IAAF's rankings were heavily based on marks and used place in the competition as merely a supplement. It really should be the reverse.

And that's just what I'm going to do. In any competition, an athlete will earn points for place just like on the World Athletics Tour, and just like on the tour the bigger meets score more points. Athletes can earn up to ten bonus points in a meet based on their mark. The eight best competitions for the year will count. The top athletes will be the ones who consistently place high in the biggest meets and consistently put up good marks.

I will have one major departure from tradition, though. This year we've seen athletes wander into events other than their major emphasis, such as Allyson Felix in the 400 or Alan Webb in the 800. Success in related events has some meaning and we all know this. So up to two of the eight competitions can be in other events.

This is an experiment, one that I won't even be able to get off the ground until next season. I've played around with it in the men's 100 meters and here's what I've got (scoring only seven best meets since the season isn't to its climax yet):
1. Tyson Gay (134)
2. Derrick Atkins (119)
3. Asafa Powell (99)
4. Marlon Devonish (77)
5. Francis Obikwelu (74)
5. Churandy Martina (74)
7. Shawn Crawford (70)
8. Walter Dix (64)
9. Nesta Carter (61)
10. Trindon Holliday (59)

This is not any prediction of how they'll run at the Worlds or even a merit ranking in the manner of T&FN's. It's merely a way of tabulating what they've done; Powell ranks lower than he should due to the fact that he's only run six races this year (five 100s and a 200). In fact the numbers aren't even quite right as I haven't awarded time points for any 200m races (if I did, Gay would be even farther ahead).

Where this is superior to any other system is for determining some kind of jackpot winner. The Golden League (and its predecessor, the Golden Four) have always paid off the undefeated. This rewards not neccessarily the dominant athletes but sometimes the ones with no competition. At the end of the season there's no drama except for spoilers. Bo-ring.

Suppose instead we havea hot rivalry between two really good, say for example, hurdlers. They just about split their head-to-head meetings, rarely if ever lose to anyone else, and put up great marks in the process. That's the kind of competition that should be rewarded; in my setup they'd almost assuredly have the highest point totals of any athletes in any events. And they'd have to battle to the end of the year for a jackpot. Exciting!

As I say, this is merely an experiment. We'll see how it goes somewhere around next May.

Osaka 10k Predictions

Men

Gold - Kenenisa Bekele (Ethiopia).

Silver - Zersenay Tadesse (Eritrea).

Bronze - Sileshi Sihine (Ethiopia).

Women

Gold - Tirunesh Dibaba (Ethiopia).

Silver - Mestawet Tufa (Ethiopia).

Bronze - Kayoko Fukushi (Japan). I'll bet no one else is picking her to medal, so remember you heard it here.

Osaka 5k Predictions

IAAF Distance Preview

Predicting the 5k and 10k is always difficult for several reasons. First, we're not always sure exactly who is going to run what event until the last minute. Second, the lack of pacemakers in championship races often makes them quite different from the the races we've seen over the summer. And finally, the ability to peak at the right time plays a role as well. I'm calling these picks little but a crapshoot.

Men

Gold - Eliud Kipchoge (Kenya).

Silver - Craig "Buster" Mottram (Australia).

Bronze - Sileshi Sihine (Ethiopia).

Women

Gold - Meseret Defar (Ethiopia).

Silver - Tirunesh Dibaba (Ethiopia).

Bronze - Mariem Alaoui Selsouli (Morocco).

Sunday, August 19, 2007

Osaka Javelin Throw Predictions

Men

Gold - Tero Pitkämäki (Finland). His only loss this year was after a grisly accident in Rome took the spirit out of him.

Silver - Andreas Thorkildsen (Norway). Remarkably consistent.

Bronze - Breaux Greer (USA). Has lost to no one but the above two, and beat Thorkildsen in Oslo.

Women

Gold - Christina Obergföll (Germany). Undefeated.

Silver - Steffi Nerius (Germany). The 35-year-old vet has a winning record against all but Obergföll.

Bronze - Barbora Špotáková (Czech Republic).

Osaka Hammer Throw Predictions

Men
Koji Murofushi is a home favorite, but he just hasn't done enough this year for me to figure him into the medals.

Gold - Ivan Tsikhan (Belarus).

Silver - Primož Kozmus (Slovenia). Split his four meetings with Tsikhon this year.

Bronze - Krisztián Pars (Hungary). The only other thrower to beat Tsikohn this year, and has a 3-3 record versus next best thrower Libor Charfrietag.

Women
World record setter Tatyana Lysenko is out.

Gold - Yipsi Moreno (Cuba). Has a winning record versus all major competitors.

Silver - Ivana Brkljacic (Croatia).

Bronze - Betty Heidler (Germany).

Osaka Info

Provisional start lists are up. Final start lists will be available Thursday.

Saturday, August 18, 2007

Osaka Discus Throw Predictions

Men

Gold - Virgilijus Alekna (Lithuania). One of the safer bets in the whole meet.

Silver - Gerd Kanter (Estonia).

Bronze - Piotr Malachowski (Poland).

Women

Gold - Franka Dietzsch (Germany).

Silver - Darya Pishchalnikova (Russia).

Bronze - Vera Pospíšilová-Cechlová (Czech Republic).

Street Vault

Every year I do a local five-miler. It's part of a fair in Pemberville, a small town just ten miles outside of Bowling Green. This year I saw in the fair booklet that they were going to have a street vault the next day, so I thought I'd go take a look.

I got into town just as the fair's parade was beginning.

City slickers such as myself might think the whole scene could make Norman Rockwell wretch, but over the years I've come to understand how it's actually honest and real. Small-town people are who they are and don't pretend otherwise (as opposed to modern American suburbia, which is based almost entirely on its inhabitants projecting an image rather than reality). After being briefly sidetracked by my favorite part of any parade,I took a walk over to the "street" vault.

I'd never been to one of these before. Michigan had a big beach vault last month, and there's a whole bunch of vaults like this all over. This one really wasn't a "street" vault, more of a "school parking lot" vault.
When I showed up, the high school boys were at 12 feet. I figured it would just be some local kids and when the bar got up to 13' 6" or so it would come to an end. How wrong I was. It turned out that quite a few top kids came for this. Two were still left at 16 feet, Miek Uhle and Anthony Amore. Uhle made the height:and went on to try a new "state record" of 16' 7" (he didn't make it). Last week Uhle set the record at 16' 6". It won't ever be considered official in any way, but it will appear as a footnote on my state lists.

After two hours of watching this I'd had my fill and didn't stay around for the open competition. It featured college kids, local high school coaches, and even one of the world's best in the 60-65 age group. When I get results, I'll post 'em.

Osaka Shot Put Predictions

IAAF Throws Preview

Men

Gold - Reese Hoffa (USA). The rap on Hoffa used to be that he threw poorly under pressure, but not anymore. His biggest threat, Christian Cantwell, didn't make the US team. I'd be very surprised if Hoffa didn't win.

Silver - Rutger Smith (Netherlands). Madrid and London were the major meetings of top putters this summer; in the former Smith beat Hoffa, and in the latter he beat all but Hoffa and Cantwell.

Bronze - Dan Taylor (USA). Runner-up at the USATF and fairly consistent on the GP circuit.

Women

Gold - Nadzeya Ostapchuk (Belarus).

Silver - Anna Omarova (Russia).

Bronze - Petra Lammert (Germany).

Friday, August 17, 2007

Osaka Triple Jump Predictions

Men
Heavy favorite Christian Olsson out with injury.

Gold - Jadel Gregorio (Brazil).

Silver - Aarik Wilson (USA).

Bronze - Oh hell, I dunno now that Olsson is out.

Women

Gold - Tatyana Lebedeva (Russia). Again.

Silver - Marija Šestak (Slovenia).

Bronze - Yargelis Savigne (Cuba).

Osaka Long Jump Predictions

Men
World leader Loúis Tsátoumas (Greece) is out injured.

Gold - Irving Saladino (Panama). The long jump is generally not prone to big upsets and I certainly don't expect one here.

Silver - Andrew Howe (Italy). No, that name doesn't sound Italian. He was born in LA and moved to Rieti when he was five years old.

Bronze - Dwight Phillips (USA). It looks like his streak of World championships is going to end at two.

Women

Gold - Tatyana Lebedeva (Russia).

Silver - Lyudmila Kolchanova (Russia). The defending European champion has improved significantly each year since hitting the world stage.

Bronze - Naide Gomes (Portugal).

Thursday, August 16, 2007

Osaka Pole Vault Predictions

Men

Gold - Steve Hooker (Australia).

Silver - Brad Walker (USA). If he's on he's unbeatable, but he does have his down days.

Bronze - Danny Ecker (Germany). Appears to be the best of the Europeans this year.

Women

Gold - Yelena Isinbayeva (Russia).

Silver - Svetlana Feofanova (Russia).

Bronze - Monica Pyrek (Poland).

Osaka High Jump Predictions

IAAF Jumps Preview

Men

Gold - Stefan Holm (Sweden). The reigning European Indoor champ is a heavy favorite.

Silver - Yaroslav Rybakov (Russia). Always does well in the biggest meets.

Bronze - Tomáš Janku (Czech Republic). Jumping fairly consistently and appears to be peaking.

Women

Gold - Blanka Vlašic (Croatia). Bet the farm on this one.

Silver - Yelena Slesarenko (Russia). The Euro Cup champ has rarely lost to anyone but Vlašic, and beat her in Oslo.

Bronze - Kajsa Bergqvist (Sweden).

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Osaka 400m Hurdle Predictions

Men

Gold - James Carter (USA). Has a winning record against all major competitors.

Silver - Kerron Clement (USA). Tends to be a bit unpredictable but is getting more consistent.

Bronze - LJ Van Zyl (South Africa).

Women

Gold - Yulia Nosova-Pechonkina (Russia).

Silver - Jana Pittman-Rawlinson (Australia).

Bronze - Sheena Johnson (USA). This was a tossup choice with Yevgenia Isakova (Russia).

Osaka High Hurdle Predictions

IAAF Hurdles Preview

Men

Gold - Liu Xiang (China). Has lost only once this year and has put up the best series of marks.

Silver - Dayron Robles (Cuba). If you went purely by marks on the world list, you'd have to pick him for third. I think he's a better hurdler than Trammell, though.

Bronze - Terrence Trammell (USA).

Women

Gold - Michelle Perry (USA). Pretty clear-cut here; Perry has lost just twice this year.

Silver - Susanna Kallur (Sweden). Only once this year has she been beaten by anyone but Perry.

Bronze - Lolo Jones (USA). Consistently the next best after these two.

Monday, August 13, 2007

Osaka Steeplechase Predictions

Men
The two best steeplers are out. Saif Saaeed Shaheen has been injured and will not run, and World Athletics Tour leader Paul Kipsiele Koech did not make Kenya's team.

Gold - Ezekiel Kemboi (Kenya). You simply must take any Kenyan steeplechase champion seriously. Kemboi's not just any Kenyan champ, either. He's having a good year with several big wins (aside from the Paris debacle). He has a good record in big meets, too; in the last three WC/OG meets, he's only lost to Shaheen, who's not going to be there this time.

Silver - Richard Kipkemboi Mateelong (Kenya).

Bronze - Brimin Kiprop Kipruto (Kenya). Theoretically, Bob Tahri (France) or Mustafa Mohamed (Sweden) could break up the medal sweep, but that's only if one of the Kenyans falls. I wouldn't bet on it.

Women
Not much history here, so it's a bit harder to handicap. Defending World Champ Dorcus Inzikuru is out (pregnancy).

Gold - Gulnara Galkina-Sabitova (Russia)

Silver - Eunice Jepkorir (Kenya)

Bronze - Donna McFarlane (Australia)

Hal Davis obit

Hal Davis, probably the greatest sprinter who never won an Olympic title, has died.
Davis, who held the "World's Fastest Human'' title from 1941-43 after winning just about every major sprint title during that period, was a member of the original National Track and Field Hall of Fame, a class that included Jesse Owens.
In the 1940-43 seasons, Davis lost only three times at 100y/100m and was undefeated at 220y/200m. Discuss.

Sunday, August 12, 2007

Osaka 1500m Predictions

Men
If we've learned anything over the last two decades, it's that championship races without a rabbit reward a slightly different set of abilities than the GP circuit's high-speed time trials. This adds a layer of complexity.

Gold - Belal Mansoor Ali (Bahrain). The fact that he's won his last three outings at 1500m on the World Athletics Tour is meaningful, but that he's also won twice at shorter distances is much more meaningful. The 800m and 1k require a bit more speed-endurance, and also require a bit more actual racing skill.

Silver - Alan Webb (USA). Clearly he's running better than any miler in the world right now. He also has a history of running poorly in races where he may have to think on his feet. I'm not ready to jump on the Webb bandwagon yet, but counting him out of the medals would be stupid.

Bronze - Asbel Kiprop (Kenya). A big question mark. He's won four big meets in Africa (World Junior XC, Kenyan Championships, All-Africa Games, Kenyan Trials) and ran poorly in his two European outings. Note that the experts say an altitude-trained athlete needs time to acclimate to sea level before he has any "snap" in his legs, so those two WAT races might not mean much. Reasonable people have even picked him to win.


Women

Gold - Maryam Yusuf Jamal (Bahrain). Has lost only to Soboleva this summer and her history at championship meets is very good.

Silver - Yelena Soboleva (Russia). Running great, but doesn't do so well at the big meets.

Bronze - Irina Lishchynska (Ukraine). A safe pick.

Saturday, August 11, 2007

Olympic Trials countdown



It's more or less a done deal now. This morning I bought my airline ticket to Eugene for next summer's Olympic Trials. I'm going with Track & Field News Tours (I had to get on their wait list, and finally got in just a while ago).

I went with the T&FN gang once before, to the 2001 World Championships in Edmonton. Some say their tours are overpriced. I'm not so sure. For my estimated final tab of $1400 I get eleven nights of lodging, prime tickets for all eight days of the meet, and a snooty lunch where I get to meet some stars. It's possible that I could have beaten the price doing all the legwork myself, but not by more than a hundred dollars or so and I'm virtually certain my seating wouldn't be nearly as good doing it myself.

Osaka 800m Predictions

IAAF Middle Distance Preview

Men
The picture is muddled to say the least. Only three runners have as many as two wins this year in Grand Prix meets, and all of them have bombed at times. Usually you can count on Kenya to send a fine group but even here we basically have a trio of unknown quantities (while Bungei is a very good runner he has a history of running poorly at championships).

That would make prognosticating difficult enough, but then we've got the additional issue of how the race will be run, which will make a huge difference in who gets the medals. T&FN's early favorite, Yuriy Borzakovskiy, always hangs back in the first lap and attempts to come storming to the front in the final 200 meters. Nick Symmonds has also picked up this strategy (but isn't nearly as extreme); two of his races show its strengths and weaknesses.

At the Prefontaine meet, Khadevis Robinson took out the pace hard (50.7) while Symmonds ran behind all but Borzakovskiy. Robinson tired and it was fairly easy for Symmonds to pass a strung-out field. But at the USATF meet, Robinson held back a bit (51.1) and held on for the win, while a tighter pack of runners boxed in Symmonds and then he had to swing wide on the homestretch. Four-tenths of a second might not seem like a lot, but in these two races it was the difference between winning and losing.

Which way will it go? Well, big-time races have been run this way. Munich '72, Seoul '88, and Athens '04 jump to mind. But these jump to mind because they are unusual. So I'm going to guess that the race will not begin at a suicidal pace, and Borzakovskiy will come up short and win silver.

Gold - Belal Mansoor Ali (Bahrain). I don't yet know if he will run this event in Osaka.

Silver - Yuriy Borzakovskiy (Russia).

Bronze - Abraham Chepkirwok (Uganda). Here I'm more or less throwing darts at a list of names.

Women

Gold - Kenia Sinclair (Jamaica). Has lost only once this year on the World Athletics Tour (to Mutola at Eugene) and avenged that loss in Lausanne.

Silver - Maria Mutola (Mozambique). We can only assume she has a painting of an old and very slow Mutola in her attic.

Bronze - Olga Kotlyarova (Russia). Had a so-so summer until the recent Russian Championships, where she ran very well to win.

Friday, August 10, 2007

Anti-Doping News

Breaking news: Moroccon 1500m star Adil Kaouch failed a test and is provisionally suspended pending B-sample confirmation.
The International Federation of Athletics (IAAF) has provisionally suspended Moroccan athlete Adil Kaouch after he failed a drug test during the last Golden League meet in Rome, MAP quoted a Moroccan Royal Athletics Federation statement as saying on Thursday (August 9th). Kaouch won the men's 1,500m on July 13th. The statement said Kaouch continues his preparations for the World Championships in Osaka, confident in the final results of the test. The IAAF has carried out anti-doping tests on many Moroccan athletes since the beginning of the year, the statement said, and all these tests were negative.
Due to looming declaration deadlines, Kaouch is virtually certain to miss the Worlds even if his B-sample comes out negative. Note that just a few weeks ago French Athletics Federation president Bernard Amsalem warned us about coming scandals involving many athletes in the western Mediterannean basin.

Discuss: Old farts / Young punks

Osaka 400m Predictions

Men

Gold - Jeremy Wariner (USA). In Stockholm he removed any doubts. He is as close to a lock as there is in a running event.

Silver - LaShawn Merritt (USA). He has not been worse than second all year and has a winning record against all but Wariner.

Bronze - Here's where it gets dicey. Gary Kikaya (Congo) looked very good early, then bombed in Rome a month ago and hasn't raced since. If he's at his best, he could even get second. I'm going to play it safe, though, and go with Angelo Taylor (USA).

Women
The two best in this event, Sanya Richards and Allyson Felix, will not be competing, thus making the choices slightly more complex.

Gold - Novlene Williams (Jamaica). Has a winning record against all who will run.

Silver - Amy Mbacke Thiam (Senegal). Probably the best of the rest.

Bronze - A tossup between Natasha Hastings (USA) and Mary Wineberg (USA). At their best, it's no contest -- Hastings is a much better runner. However, it's been a very long year for the NCAA indoor/outdoor champ, and Wineberg has been improving all summer, beating Hastings handily in Stockholm. But it was the first time all year and Hastings has several weeks to get it back together. I'm going with Hastings because she doesn't even have to be at her best, only just good enough.

I reserve the right to re-arrange these predictions in the unlikely but possible occurrence that DeeDee Trotter drops out of the Worlds and Sanya Richards competes.

Thursday, August 09, 2007

More Worlds Predictions

On to the 200 meters.

Men
Gold - Tyson Gay (USA). Just flat-out better than anyone else

Silver - Usain Bolt (Jamaica). Has split his four meetings with Spearmon and appears to be peaking better.

Bronze - Wallace Spearmon (USA).

Women
Gold - Allyson Felix (USA). Has only run the 200 three times this outdoor season, as she's dabbled in other distances. Undefeated and showing good form at 100 meters and great form at 400.

Silver - Sanya Richards (USA). Has only lost to Felix, and just set a big 100m PR.

Bronze - Veronica Campbell (Jamaica). Lost to Felix and Richards in Sheffield a few weeks ago, but then thrashed Torri Edwards in London. No one else could touch her.

Worlds Predictions

We're now in a bit of a dead time before the World Championships begin on August 25. I'll throw my hat into the prediction ring on a day-by-day basis.

Today I'll call the 100 meters for men and women.

IAAF Sprints Preview

Men
Gold - Tyson Gay (USA). When I saw him in person, the level of dominance was ridiculous. Even though he doesn't look quite in the same form now, no one else has moved up even to his "bad day" level.

Silver - Asafa Powell (Jamaica). Hasn't been beaten this season in the 100 meters.

Bronze - Derrick Atkins (Bahamas). Has lost to each of the two above but no one else.

Women

Gold - Torri Edwards (USA). This one is a bit harder to call. Edwards has lost to Cambell but not lately (except for a sound thrashing at 200 meters in London last week). Edwards has lost to no one else.

Silver - Veronica Campbell (Jamaica). Has lost to no one but Edwards.

Bronze -A tough call. Me'Lisa Barber (USA) appears to be the world's third-best right now, but she didn't make the USA team. Kim Gevaert (Belgium) is up there but inconsistent. Lauryn Williams (USA) is a past big-time champ but not running particularly well either. I'm going out on a limb and picking Carmelita Jeter (USA) based on three recent strong showings.

EDIT: After taking a second look at things, I've changed my mind.
Gold - Campbell

Silver - Edwards

Bronze - I'm really going out on a limb and picking Tezzhan Naimova (Bulgaria). Provided, of course, that she's not caught up in the same problems as other top Bulgarian women.

Track on TV

Friday, August 10
Sports Time Ohio, 7:00-8:00 PM
Jesse Owens Returns to Berlin
(repeats 8/12 at 1 AM, 8/13 at 3:30 AM, 8/16 at 2:30 AM, and 8/19 at 1 AM)

Saturday, August 11

Fox College Sports Atlantic, 6:30-8:30 AM
SEC Outdoor Championships

Saturday, August 25
CBC, 3:00-6:00 PM
World Championships

Versus, 6:00-8:00 PM
World Championships

Sunday, August 26
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM and 6:00-8:00 PM
World Championships

NBC, 12:30-2:30 PM
World Championships

CBC, 3:00-5:00 PM
World Championships
(repeats at 12:30 AM)

Monday, August 27
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 9:00-11:00 AM, 3:00-5:00 PM, 7:00-9:00 PM
World Championships

Tuesday, August 28
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 9:00-11:00 AM, 3:00-5:00 PM, 7:00-9:00 PM
World Championships

Wednesday, August 29
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 9:00-11:00 AM, 3:00-5:00 PM, 7:00-9:00 PM
World Championships

Thursday, August 30
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 9:00-11:00 AM, 3:00-5:00 PM, 7:00-9:00 PM
World Championships

Friday, August 31
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 9:00-11:00 AM, 3:00-5:00 PM, 7:00-9:00 PM
World Championships

Saturday, September 1
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 9:00-11:00 AM, 9:00-11:00 PM
World Championships

CBC, Noon-1:00 PM and 4:00-6:00 PM
World Championships

NBC, 12:30-2:30 PM
World Championships

Sunday, September 2
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 6:00-8:00 PM
World Championships

NBC, 1:00-3:00 PM
World Championships

Monday, September 3
CBC, 12:30-2:30 AM
World Championships

Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 4:00-6:00 PM
World Championships

Saturday September 8
CBC, 2:00 PM
Zurich Golden League

Saturday September 15
CBC, 2:30 PM
Brussels Golden League

Sunday September 16
CBC, 4:00 PM
Berlin Golden League

December 1
NBC, 4:30-6:00 PM
Ironman Triathlon World Championships

Wednesday, August 08, 2007

Tuesday, August 07, 2007

DN Galan live blog

Meet website

Swedish webcast (on now)

WCSN webcast begins at 1 PM EDT

Live results

Let's Run thread

Right now we're in the "warm-up" events and the webcast is all in Swedish. The language sounds strangely familiar.

Men's 100m B-final: Jaysuma Saidy Ndure (Norway) ran 10.07 into a -1.0 headwind. That's equal to 10.01 in neutral conditions, which ties him for sixth on the yearly wind/altitude-adjusted world list.

Men's 800 meters: Mulaudzi has switched to the 1000m, making it a tremendous race.

Men's Triple Jump: Gregario is not competing (don't know why). Marion Oprea beats Aarik Wilson in a mild upset.

Women's 100 meters: Me'Lisa Barber wins, Richards runs a significant PR (and maybe onto the USA 4x100?), and Simpson proves she will not be a factor in Osaka.

Men's 400 meters: Wariner 43.50. Continues to amaze.


Men's 100 meters A-final: Powell wins, but only by .01 over Derrick Atkins in a relatively pedestrian 10.05 (10.02 corrected for wind/alt).

Women's 5k: Kastor wins in dominating fashion (14:52.23 unpressed, good for #3 on the US list), albeit over a less-than-deep field.

Men's 110m hurdles: Aries Merritt breaks the stadium record (13.09) and gets one of the coveted diamonds. Ohio's Ryan Wilson .01 behind.

I am forced to abandon the live experience to go get a CT scan (attempting to find out why my hearing has deteriorated so rapidly in my 30s).

Men's 1000 meters: Miler Mansoor wins, with 800m star Mulaudzi second and Lagat third. A very deep field.

Men's Javelin Throw: Favorite Thorkildsen wins, just missing a stadium record.

Men's 200 meters: JJ Johnson wins over a fairly weak field.

Men's Steeplechase: I got back just in time to see Koech come down the homestretch and break the 8:00 barrier (and earn a stadium-record diamond).

Men's High Jump: Holm wins with 2.35.

Women's High Jump: Vlasic clean through 2.01 and the only one left jumping.
UPDATE: Makes 2.03 on her second attempt. Now trying 2.07, which would be a PR.
UPDATE 2: Barely missed on her first two attempts.
Update 3: Made it! The best outdoor jump since the inception of random out-of-competition testing (i.e., the real WR).

Women's 100m Hurdles: Susanna Kallur wins (12.66) with enthusiastic support.

Women's Pole Vault: Apparently they are not going to break a tie between Pyrek and Feofanova.

Men's 3000 meters: Bekele through 2k at 4:59.88. Huge lead.
UPDATE: Won by a lot in 7:25.79, missed WR, set stadium record. Teg in fourth.
Hampered by what eldrick called "f******g broke-dick pacers"

Women's Long Jump: All five of Kluft's five marks would have won. She probably has a spot in the World Athletics Final if she wants it.

Women's 400 meters: A stunner. Allyson Felix out-leans Sanya Richards in stadium-record time, 49.70. Was doubling a mistake for Richards? And what the heck has happened to DeeDee Trotter (way back in seventh at 52.17)?

Men's 4x100m Relay: The USA team was listed as "mixed", so I must assume they weren't all Americans. Unfortunately Poland DQ'd and Jamaica didn't compete, making it a rather uninteresting affair.

Anti-Doping News

The AP reports the latest revelation in the Justin Gatlin saga.
The top assistant to track coach Trevor Graham gave Justin Gatlin an injection, which he believed to be vitamin B12, two weeks before the world record-sharing sprinter tested positive for steroids.

After Randall Evans gave Gatlin the shot, the sprinter was given what he was told were anti-inflammatory pills as a follow-up, a person with knowledge of the case told The Associated Press on Monday.
Just so you know, Barry Bonds says he thought he was getting B12 injections too.

At the ,T&FN message board the story is a non-starter. eldrick:
iirc correctly, the testo detected was consistent with a cream/gel preparation, NOT an injectable form, so this sounds like a red herring



Monday, August 06, 2007

DN Galan Preview

Meet website
IAAF preview
WCSN says they'll webcast it, but details are sketchy

Start list breakdown, by meet timetable converted to EDT

10:30 AM: Men's 100 meters (B final)

Marcus BRUNSON
IAAF World Rank: #5

Nester CARTER
Currently tied for sixth in the World Athletics Tour standings

also:
Dariusz KUC
Bernard WILLIAMS
Kim COLLINS
Johan ENGBERG
Jaysuma Saidy NDURE
Xavier CARTER

10:45 AM: Men's 400 meters (B final)

Alleyne FRANCIQUE
IAAF World Rank: #5

also:
Andreas MOKDASI
Thomas NIKITIN
Talkmore NYANGANI
Fredrik JOHANSSON
Tyree WASHINGTON
Paul MCKEE

11:30 AM: Women's 100 meters (B final)

Stephanie DURST
IAAF World Rank: #5
currenlty tied for seventh in the WAT standings

Malin STRÖM
Emma RIENAS
Shelly Ann FRASIER
Mechelle LEWIS
Tahesia HARRIGAN

12:30 PM: Men's 800 meters

Mbulaeni MULAUDZI
IAAF World Rank: #1
currently fourth in the WAT standings (a win would move him to first)

also:
Richard KIPLAGAT
Eugenio BARRIOS
Michael RIMMER
Mattias CLAESSON
Arnoud OKKEN
Dmitrijs MILKEVICS
Mohcine CHEHIBI

12:35 PM: Men's Triple Jump

Jadel GREGORIO
IAAF World Rank: #2
currently second in the WAT standings

Aarik WILSON
IAAF World Rank: #3
current WAT standings leader

Marian OPREA
IAAF World Rank: #4

Randy LEWIS
IAAF World Rank: #12
currently sixth in the WAT standings

Leevand SANDS
currently fifth in the WAT standings

also:
Anton ANDERSSON
Tarik BOUTAYEB
notable absence: Christian Olsson

12:35 PM: Women's Pole Vault

Monika PYREK
IAAF World Rank: #2
currently fifth in the WAT standings (first or second would move her into second place, provided she beats Feofanova)

Fabiana MURER
IAAF World Rank: #3

Jennifer STUCZYNSKI
IAAF World Rank: #4
currently ninth in the WAT standings

Svetlana FEOFANOVA
IAAF World Rank: #5
currently sixth in the WAT standings (a win would move her to second place)

Yulia GOLUBCHIKOVA
IAAF World Rank: #6 (tie)
currently second in the WAT standings

Katerina BADUROVA
IAAF World Rank: #8
currently third in the WAT standings

Shuying GAO
IAAF World Rank: #11

Caroline HINGST
currently tenth in the WAT standings

also:
Hanna-Mia PERSSON
Chelsea JOHNSON

12:40 PM: Women's 100 meters (A final)

Sherone SIMPSON
IAAF World Rank: #1

Me'Lisa BARBER
IAAF World Rank: #3

Kim GEVAERT
IAAF World Rank: #4

Debbie FERGUSON
IAAF World Rank: #6

Sheri-Ann BROOKS
IAAF World Rank: #9 (tie)

Brianna GLENN
currently tenth in the WAT standings

also:
Angela WILLIAMS
Kerron STEWART
Sanya RICHARDS (PR: 11.34)

12:45 PM: Men's High Jump

Stefan HOLM
IAAF World Rank: #2
currently second in the WAT standings

Linus THÖRNBLAD
IAAF World Rank: #3

Tomas JANKU
IAAF World Rank: #5
currently third in the WAT standings

Jesse WILLIAMS
IAAF World Rank: #6 (tie)
current WAT standings leader

Donald THOMAS
IAAF World Rank: #6 (tie)
currently seventh in the WAT standings

Germaine MAISON
currently fourth in the WAT standings

also:
Yuriy KRYMARENKO
Vyacheslav VORONIN
Jim DILLING

12:50 PM: Men's 400 meters (A final)
Jeremy WARINER
IAAF World Rank: #1
Currently fifth in the WAT standings (a win would move him to second)

Andrew ROCK
IAAF World Rank: #9

Sanjay AYRE
IAAF World Rank: #12
Currently fourth in the WAT standings

Darold WILLIAMSON
currently sixth in the WAT standings

also:
Lewis BANDA
Ricardo CHAMBERS
Kerron CLEMENT
Johan WISSMAN

1:00 PM: Men's 100 meters (A final)

Asafa POWELL
IAAF World Rank: #1

Derrick ATKINS
IAAF World Rank: #3
Currently leads the WAT standings

Francis OBIKWELU
IAAF World Rank: #4
Currently third in the WAT standings (needs fifth or better to move to second)

Churandy MARTINA
IAAF World Rank: #8
Currently fourth in the WAT standings (two points behind Obikwelu)

Michael FRATER
IAAF World Rank: #12

also:
Leroy DIXON
JJ JOHNSON
Samuel FRANCIS
notable absence: Tyson Gay

1:05 PM: Men's Javelin Throw

Andreas THORKILDSEN
IAAF World Rank: #1
current WAT standings leader

Magnus ARVIDSSON
IAAF World Rank: #5
currently fourth in the WAT standings

Sergey MAKAROV
IAAF World Rank: #6

Aleksandr IVANOV
IAAF World Rank: #8

Eriks RAGS
IAAF World Rank: #9
currently seventh in the WAT standings

Teemu WIRKKALA
currently eighth in the WAT standings

also:
Daniel RAGNVALDSSON
Jarrod BANNISTER
Gabriel WALLIN
Jarkko KOSKI-VÄHÄLÄ

1:10 PM: Women's 5000 meters

Christin JOHANSSON
Sara SLATTERY
Katie MCGREGOR
Zakia MRISHO
Renee METIVIER
Sylvia KIBET
Jennifer RHINES
Linet MASAI
Eloise WELLINGS
Jelena PROKOPCUKA
Lauren FLESHMAN
Steph TWELL
Deena KASTOR
Olga KOMYAGINA

1:25 PM: Women's High Jump

Blanka VLASIC
IAAF World Rank: #1
Current WAT standings leader

Tia HELLEBAUT
IAAF World Rank: #2
currently fourth in the WAT standings

Kajsa BERGQVIST
IAAF World Rank: #3
currently third in the WAT standings

Amy ACUFF
IAAF World Rank: #7
currently fifth in the WAT standings

Nicole FORRESTER
IAAF World Rank: #9 (tie)

Anna CHICHEROVA
IAAF World Rank: #9 (tie)

also:
Deidre RYAN
Ebba JUNGMARK
Emma GREEN
Viktoria STYOPINA

1:45 PM: Men's 110m Hurdles

Anwar MOORE
IAAF World Rank: #4
currently leads the WAT standings

Aries MERRITT
IAAF World Rank: #6
currently seventh in the WAT standings

David PAYNE
IAAF World Rank: #8
currently second in the WAT standings

Ryan WILSON
IAAF World Rank: #10
currently third in the WAT standings

Ron BRAMLETT
IAAF World Rank: #11
currently eighth in the WAT standings

also:
Robby HUGHES
Robert KRONBERG

2:00 PM: Men's 1000 meters

Tarek BOUKENSA
IAAF World Rank: #3 (1500m)

Bernard LAGAT
IAAF World Rank: #5 (1500m)

Gary REED
IAAF World Rank: #7 (800m)

Ali Bilal MANSOOR
IAAF World Rank: #7 (1500m)

Abdlaati IGUIDER
IAAF World Rank: #9 (1500m)

also:
Rizak DIRSHE
Alvaro FERNANDEZ
Yassine BENSGHIR
Steph TWELL
Edwin LETTING
Andrew BADDELEY
Philemon KIMUTAI
Jeffrey RISELEY
Sammy TANGUI

2:05 PM: Women's Long Jump

Oksana UDMURTOVA
IAAF World Rank: #7
currently third in the WAT standings (a top-seven finish will move her to second place)

Kumiko IKEDA
IAAF World Rank: #8
current WAT standings leader

Grace UPSHAW
currently fifth in the WAT standings

Malgorzata TRYBANSKA
currently sixth in the WAT standings

Rose RICHMOND
currently tied for seventh in the WAT standings

Carolina KLÜFT
a win could move her into second in the WAT standings

also:
Karen MEY
Bianca KAPPLER

2:15 PM: Men's 200 meters

Jaysuma Saidy NDURE
IAAF World Rank: #9
Currently fourth in the WAT standings (a win would move him to first)

JJ JOHNSON (doubling back from 100m)
currently sixth in the WAT standings

Brian DZINGAI
currently tied for ninth in the WAT standings

also:
Ricardo WILLIAMS
Bernard WILLIAMS (doubling back from 100m)
Clement CAMPBELL
Patrick JOHNSON (doubling back from 100m C final)
Marcin JEDRUSINSKI


2:25 PM: Men's Steeplechase

Paul Kipsiele KOECH
IAAF World Rank: #1
currently leads the WAT standings

Mustafa MOHAMED
IAAF World Rank: #6

Tareq Mubarak TAHER
IAAF World Rank: #10

Reuben KOSGEI
currently fifth in the WAT standings

Steve SLATTERY
currently ninth in the WAT standings

Mike KIPYEGO
currently tenth in the WAT standings

also:
Yoshitaka IWAMIZU
Henrik SKOOG
Abdellatif CHEMLAL
Youcef ABDI
Per JACOBSEN
Günther WEIDLINGER
Kamal Ali ABUBAKER
Hamid EZZINE
Luis Miguel MARTIN
Collins KOSGEI
John LANGAT

2:50 PM: Women's 100m hurdles

Michelle PERRY
IAAF World Rank: #1
current WAT standings leader

Susanna KALLUR
IAAF World Rank: #2
currently third in the WAT standings

Lolo JONES
IAAF World Rank: #5
currently second in the WAT standings

Danielle CARRUTHERS
IAAF World Rank: #12
currently ninth in the WAT standings

Josephine ONYIA
currently fourth in the WAT standings

also:
Aurelia TRYWIANSKA
Dawn HARPER
Jenny KALLUR

3:05 PM: Men's 3000 meters (will be a record attempt)

Kenenisa BEKELE
IAAF World Rank: #1
currently third in the WAT standings (any position in the top seven moves him to first, provided he beats Songok by two or more places)

Edwin SOI
IAAF World Rank: #4

Micah KOGO
IAAF World Rank: #7

Jonas CHERUIYOT
IAAF World Rank: #8
currently sixth in the WAT standings

Boniface SONGOK
IAAF World Rank: #9
currently fourth in the WAT standings

Matt TEGENKAMP
IAAF World Rank: #13

also:
Thomas LONGOSIWA
Chris SOLINSKY
Erik SJÖQVIST
Manuel PENAS
Kevin SULLIVAN
Ali MAATAOUI
Remmy Limo NDIWA
Shadrack KOSGEI
Musir Salem JAWHER
Ed MORAN
Sahle Warga BETONA
Edwin KIPKORIR
Robert SIGEI
Bernard KIPTUM
Churchill KIPSANG

3:15 PM: Women's 400 meters
The most loaded event of the day

Sanya RICHARDS
doubling back from 100m
IAAF World Rank: #1
current WAT standings leader

Novlene WILLIAMS
IAAF World Rank: #2
currently third in the WAT standings

Mbake Amy TIAM
IAAF World Rank: #3
currently second in the WAT standings

Dee Dee TROTTER
IAAF World Rank: #4
currently seventh in the WAT standings

Shericka WILLIAMS
IAAF World Rank: #6
currently fourth in the WAT standings

Natasha HASTINGS
IAAF World Rank: #9
currently eleventh in the WAT standings (anything but last moves her to eighth)

Mary WINEBERG
IAAF World Rank: #10
currently sixth in the WAT standings

Allyson FELIX
currently fifth in the WAT standings (a top-five finish moves her to fourth)

3:35 PM: Men's 4x100m relay
This is one of the qualifying meets for the Worlds

USA (38.25)
POLAND (38.62)
JAMAICA (38.75)
SWITZERLAND (39.31)
NETHERLANDS (39.35)
QATAR
SWEDEN, U23
FINLAND

Sunday, August 05, 2007

New York Half-Marathon

Gebrselassie wins in 59:24. Abdi Abdirahman second. Women's race was a three-way sprint to the finish.
Race website
AP story
Let's Run discussion
Video highlights

and a nice article on Geb at Sports Illustrated

Saturday, August 04, 2007

Lagat Doubling in Osaka

Race Results Weekly (via Let's Run) is reporting that Bernard Lagat will compete in both the 1500 meters and 5000 meters at the World Championships:
That Bernard Lagat won today's 1500m at the Norwich Union Super Grand Prix was not a surprise, but his decision to double in both the 1500m and the 5000m at the IAAF World Championships in Osaka certainly was.

"Tonight I informed USATF that I have decided to double at both 1500m and 5000m in Osaka," Lagat wrote in an e-mail message sent to Race Results Weekly by his long-time manager, James Templeton.

At last June's AT&T USA Championships, Lagat also did the 1500m/5000m double, placing third in the shorter event and winning the longer. At that time, he was leaning towards just doing the 1500m, but said that he had not ruled anything out. As his summer track season progressed, Lagat seemed off form at 1500m, finishing a distant 7th in Paris and third in Sheffield. That led to speculation that he would move up to the longer event, but the two-time Olympic medalist indicated that he was ready for the challenge of the double.

"I have had some stomach problems which affected my recent races in Paris and Sheffield," Lagat wrote. "However, these problems have cleared up in recent weeks. I've felt good in training and tonight felt very strong in the 1500 in London. I'm very excited about competing for USA for the first time and I believe I can be a strong contender in both events in Osaka."
The meet schedule allows for such a double.
Saturday, August 25: 1500m heats
Monday, August 27: 1500m semis
Wednesday, August 29: 1500m final
Thursday, August 30: 5k heats
Sunday, September 2: 5k final

Friday, August 03, 2007

London Super GP roundup

Let's Run discussion
Start lists & Results
Live audio - live video

I was right about the event of the day. The men's shot did not disappoint, with Cantwell taking the lead on the second-to-last throw and then Hoffa taking it back with a final-throw stadium/personal record.

The men's 200 saw a mild upset. Bolt now has a 2-2 record this year against Spearmon. Another mild upset was in the women's 3k, where Lauren Fleshman beat Jo Pavey in a new PR. Other events went more or less according to form; Lagat won the 1500 in fairly dramatic fashion, showing he's regained his finishing speed.

BBC post-meet report and video highlights

Doping Apologists

Two recent Washington Post columns can only be described as supporting the theory that doping really doesn't mean anything.

Joel Garreau, in a column titled "Is It Time For a Flex Plan? Techno-Athletes Change The Definition of Natural" says "The old rules are increasingly untenable. Especially the one that goes: Enhancement is indistinguishable from cheating." He quotes Jame Hughes, an "ethicist" from Trinity College:
"This anxiety about athletes cheating with self-medication is a relatively recent phenomenon. It coincides with the professionalization of sports. To be truly superhuman in their capacities, people train 12-hour days, are hooked up to computers, have swimming gear" that costs hundreds of dollars. "That's natural -- everything else is unnatural. It's wildly inconsistent. There's a certain amount of double-think. If you have a cold, you take antihistamines to bring you up to your natural level of performance. But in sports, you would be taken out of competition," as some have.
At best, this statement is made in ignorance, and Hughes could be accused of intentionally misleading the reader. First of all, the level of antihistamine use that triggers a drug DQ is far above the recommended dose for over-the-counter medications; that's a totally specious claim. But the anxiety about doping is virtually indistinguishable from 20th-century athletics; the IAAF banned doping in 1928, seven years prior to the isolation of testosterone and 24 years prior to its first suspected use in sports. Nor is this anxiety limited to athletes; FIFA and UCI banned doping in order to protect the lives of their athletes, and Jay Silvester's poll of 1972 Olympians found the majority both used steroids and thought them unethical.

Sally Jenkins' "Winning, Cheating Have Ancient Roots" is much of the same argument that she made on Wednesday's Diane Rehm Show. She argues, as does Garreau's "ethicist" above, that doping is omnipresent and impossible to stamp out; the dopers are always several steps ahead of the testers. Furthermore, we can't even agree on what doping is because the list of banned substances is so long and constantly being changed. Finally, the fans must not be turned off by doping, considering the number of people who support Barry Bonds and the ever-expanding attendance at Major League Baseball games. All this means we should give up the fight.

It's an interesting argument if not a new one. But let's see how this logic stands up to being placed in any other context. Let's not assume doping in sport is a shocking moral failure, rather it's simply one type of corruption. Read the following and see what you think.
Congressional corruption has always been with us and we cannot stamp it out. There are so many more lobbyists than investigators. We can't even agree what constitutes corruption; the number of laws against it are staggering and Congress is constantly adding new ones while deleting others. Ordinary every-day people come to the defense of those charged with corruption, like Ted Stevens and William Jefferson; and the number of people voting in congressional elections continues to rise. Apparently, all this noise about corruption is being made by moralists with no understanding of how the world works. Senators and Representatives should be allowed to do as they please.
Any political pundit who makes this argument should be removed from his/her job immediately; if he/she doesn't even pay lip service to the notion of controlling corruption, we'd know that person has been in Washington too long and has lost grip on reality. Sports columnists...well, they do spend all their time around athletes. And sometimes they've just plain run out of things to write about.

Thursday, August 02, 2007

ESPN notices track

The Worldwide Leader in Self-Promotion and Endless Talking Heads has an article up on the world's greatest sport. Actually, it's an article in the new edition of ESPN Magazine, and more specifically it's about Bernard Lagat.

It's a good article, but in general it's hard for me to complement ESPN these days. The cable channel basically does not acknowledge track's existence, and the magazine does so only about once or twice a year.

The men's 100 meter world list

I know what you're thinking. The IAAF keeps it here. And it's the official world list, but if you're trying to compare performances it's less than ideal.

Wind speed and altitude can have tremendous effects on 100-meter times. This nifty widget can factor those out and give an roughly equivalent time run at sea level and in still air. Here's what I've come up with: (adjusted time, actual time, athlete, site/date):


9.82 (9.84) Tyson Gay Indianapolis, Jun-22
9.86 (9.76w) Tyson Gay New York, Jun-2
9.90 (9.79w) Tyson Gay Carson, May-20
9.91 (9.97) Tyson Gay Indianapolis, Jun-22
9.92 (9.90) Asafa Powell Rome, Jul-13
9.93 (9.83w) Derrick Atkins New York, Jun-2
9.93 (9.93) Walter Dix Sacramento, Jun-8
9.96 (9.95) Derrick Atkins Athens, Jul-2
9.97 (10.02) Tyson Gay London, Aug-3
9.99 (9.94) Asafa Powell Oslo, Jun-15
9.99 (10.00) Derrick Atkins Paris, Jul-6
10.00 (9.97) Asafa Powell Beograd, May-29
10.00 (10.02) Mickey Grimes Atlanta, Jun-2
10.01 (9.88w) Darrel Brown Port-of-Spain, Jun-23
10.02 (10.06) Walter Dix Gainesville, May-25
10.03 (10.09) Leonard Scott Indianapolis, Jun-22
10.04 (10.02) Derrick Atkins Rome, Jul-13
10.05 (10.05) Walter Dix Gainesville, May-25
10.05 (10.07) Trindon Holliday Columbia, May-26
10.06 (10.06) Trindon Holliday Sacramento, Jun-8
10.06 (10.09) Walter Dix Indianapolis, Jun-22
10.06 (10.06) Churandy Martina Rio, Jun-23
10.06 (10.04) Derrick Atkins Lausanne, Jul-10
10.06 (10.03) Usain Bolt Rethimno, Jul-18
10.06 (9.96w) Shawn Crawford New York, Jun-2

This makes it pretty apparent who's the best. Gay is much better than everyone else; Powell is next, followed closely by Atkins (Dix has ended his season). Averaging their best three marks, you get 9.86 for Gay, 9.96 for Atkins, and 9.97 for Powell. Gay and Powell are undefeated this year; Atkins has lost only to these two.

New IAAF Website, fantasy league

The IAAF just unveiled a revamped website. The content is still basically the same, with one notable exception: they have a "fantasy league". Really, it's just a prediction contest for the World Championships. It does, however, have the option of creating private leagues, as you might at Yahoo! Fantasy Sports. And some nice prizes:
The overall winner of IAAF Fantasy Athletics will receive a trip for two to a World Athletics Tour event near them, including airfares and accommodation. In addition, the player who achieves the highest score each individual competition day will receive an Osaka 2007 t-shirt signed by one of the elite athletes competing in Osaka.
They can just save themselves some trouble and send those things to me right now.

Wednesday, August 01, 2007

London Super GP preview

This Friday's meet will be on WCSN beginning at 1 PM. It will be the second-to-last major meet before the Worlds.
Meet Website
Discuss

An event-by-event rundown of the start lists...

MEN
100 meters
TYSON GAY USA
IAAF World Rank #2; currently #2 on the all-time wind/altitude adjusted list
I can't see anyone beating him this year, Asafa Powell included

MARK DEVONISH GBR
Currently fourth in the World Athletics Tour standings
Second at Sheffield GP (to Gay)
Named to Britain’s World Championships team

FRANCIS OBIKWELU POR
IAAF World Rank: #4
Currently fifth in the World Athletics Tour standings
Third at Sheffield GP

CRAIG PICKERING GBR
Named to Britain’s World Championships team

Also:
JOSHUA ROSS AUS
LEON BAPTISTE GBR
TYRONE EDGAR GBR
JAMES ELLINGTON GBR
JASON GARDENER GBR
DWAYNE GRANT GBR
MARK LEWIS FRANCIS GBR
YOHAN BLAKE JAM
LEROY DIXON USA
MICKEY GRIMES USA
DARVIS PATTON USA
J-MEE SAMUELS USA

200 meters
WALLACE SPEARMON USA
IAAF World Rank: #2, behind only Gay.
Currently second in the World Athletics Tour standings (3 points behind Christopher Williams; finishing in the top 5 would put him in the lead)

USAIN BOLT JAM
IAAF World Rank: #3
Currently 7th in the WAT standings
Defeated Spearmon in Lausanne; lost to Spearmon in New York

RODNEY MARTIN USA
IAAF World Rank: #7
Currently fourth in the WAT standings
Presumably on the USA team for Osaka

also:
LUKE FAGAN GBR
CHRISTIAN MALCOLM GBR
ALEX NELSON GBR
PAUL HESSION IRL
J.J JOHNSON USA

400 meters
JEREMY WARINER USA
IAAF World Rank: #1
The odds-on favorite in any race, despite his famous oops of two weeks ago.

LaSHAWN MERRITT USA
IAAF World Rank: #2
Current WAT leader by 14 points

MICHAEL BLACKWOOD JAM
IAAF World Rank: #7

JOHN STEFFENSEN AUS
Currently third in WAT standings; a top-three finish would move him to second

DAROLD WILLIAMSON USA
Currently fifth in WAT standings; only a top-two finish would move him up

ANDREW STEELE GBR
Named to Britain’s World Championships team

also:
TIM BENJAMIN GBR
JOHAN WISSMAN SWE

1500 meters
BERNARD LAGAT USA
IAAF World Rank: #5

ANDREW BADDELEY GBR
Named to Britain’s World Championships team
Currently 10th in WAT standings

KEVIN SULLIVAN CAN
Has a painting of a very old and slow Kevin Sullivan in his attic

also:
MARK FOUNTAIN AUS
MITCHELL KEALEY AUS
STEPHEN DAVIES GBR
TOM LANCASHIRE GBR
NEIL SPEAIGHT GBR
NICHOLAS KEMBOI KEN
BERNARD KIPTUM KEN
ADRIAN BLINCOE NZL
ROB MYERS USA
PAUL HOFFMAN AUS

2 miles
BONIFACE SONGOK KEN
IAAF World Rank: 7th
Currently 4th in WAT standings

ALISTAIR CRAGG IRL
Currently 5th in WAT standings

CRAIG MOTTRAM AUS
Currently 10th in WAT standings
Always good for an interesting interview

MO FARAH GBR
Named to Britain’s World Championships team (5k)

also:
COLLIS BIRMINGHAM AUS
ANTHONY FORD GBR
MICHAEL SKINNER GBR
CHRIS THOMPSON GBR
KENSUKE TAKEZAWA JPN
YUICHIRO UENO JPN
JOHN KIBOWEN KEN
EDWIN KIPKORIR KEN
MICAH KOGO KEN
MOUMIN GEELE SOM
IAN DOBSON USA
ROD KOBORSI USA
CHURCHILL KIPSANG KEN
SHADRACK KOSGEI KEN

110m hurdles
ARIES MERRITT USA
IAAF World Rank: #6
Currently 7th in the WAT standings

DAVID PAYNE USA
IAAF World Rank: #7
Currently 2nd in the WAT standings (but even a win will not move him to 1st)

RYAN WILSON USA
IAAF World Rank: #10
Currently 6th in the WAT standings
Beat Merritt in taking 2nd (behind Terrence Trammell) at Monaco last week

ANDREW TURNER GBR
Named to Britain’s World Championships team

also:
JUSTIN MERLINO AUS
ALLAN SCOTT GBR
RON BRAMLETT USA
JOEL BROWN USA

High Jump
STEFAN HOLM SWE
IAAF World Rank: #2
Currently fifth in the WAT standings; a win would likely move him to second

TOMAS JANKU CZE
IAAF World Rank: #5
Currently tied for third in the WAT standings

JESSE WILLIAMS USA
IAAF World Rank: #6 (tie)
Currently the WAT leader; would retain lead by beating at least three jumpers

DONALD THOMAS BAH
IAAF World Rank: #6 (tie)

MARTYN BERNARD GBR
Named to Britain’s World Championships team

GERMAINE MASON GBR
Named to Britain’s World Championships team
Currently tied for third in the WAT standings

also:
JAROSLAV BABA CZE
SVATOSLAV TON CZE
MICHAL BIENIEK POL
JIM DILLING USA

Long Jump
BRIAN JOHNSON USA
Currently third in the WAT standings; a top-four finish would move him to first

CHRIS TOMLINSON GBR
Named to Britain’s World Championships team
Currently fifth in the WAT standings

also:
TIM PARRAVICINI AUS
MORTEN JENSEN DEN
JONATHAN MOORE GBR
NATHAN MORGAN GBR
NILS WINTER GER
JOHN MOFFITT USA

Triple Jump
AARIK WILSON USA
IAAF World Rank: #3
Tied for first in WAT standings
Presumably on the USA's team for Osaka

PHILLIPS IDOWU GBR
IAAF World Rank: #6
Currently ninth in WAT standings
Named to Britain’s World Championships team

RANDY LEWIS GRN
Currently seventh in WAT standings

LEEVAN SANDS BAH
Currently eighth in WAT standings

also:
JULIAN GOLLEY GBR
TOSIN OKE GBR
JAROSLAV DOBROVODSKY SVK
ALEXANDER MARTINEZ SUI

Shot Put
The deepest event of the meet!

REESE HOFFA USA
IAAF World Rank: #1
Current WAT leader
Presumably on the USA's team to Osaka

CHRISTIAN CANTWELL USA
IAAF World Rank: #2
Currently third in the WAT standings

RUTGER SMITH NED
IAAF World Rank: #3
Currently eighth in the WAT standings

RALF BARTELS GER
IAAF World Rank: #4
Currently tenth in the WAT standings
Named to Germany's World Championship team

DAN TAYLOR USA
IAAF World Rank: #5
Currently tied for fifth in the WAT standings
Presumably on the USA's team to Osaka

also:
CARL MYERSCOUGH GBR

WOMEN
200 meters
KIM GEVAERT BEL
IAAF World Rank: #1
Currently fourth in the WAT standings

CYDONIE MOTHERSILL CAY
IAAF World Rank: #8
Currently tied for eighth in the WAT standings

TORRI EDWARDS USA
On fire in the 100 meters;
took third at the USATF meet and presumably is on the USA team to Osaka

VERONICA CAMPBELL JAM
Not a 200 specialist but very good; lost only to Felix and Richards at the Sheffield GP meet

also:
JEANETTE KWAKYE GBR
KERRON STEWART JAM
CAROLINA KLUFT SWE
LASHAUNTEA MOORE USA

400 meters
SANYA RICHARDS USA
IAAF World Rank: #1
Currently second in the WAT standings; will move to first with anything but a complete disaster
NOVLENE WILLIAMS JAM
IAAF World Rank: technically #3, but soon to be #2
Currently third in the WAT standings

DEEDEE TROTTER USA
IAAF World Rank: #5/#4 (see above)
Currently fifth in the WAT standings
Presumably on the USA team to Osaka

NICOLA SANDERS GBR
IAAF World Rank: #6/#5
Named to Britain’s World Championships team

MARY WINEBERG USA
Currently sixth in the WAT standings
Presumably on the USA team to Osaka

ALLYSON FELIX USA
Currently eighth in the WAT standings
PR is 50.40

also:
DONNA FRASER GBR
SHEREEFA LLOYD JAM

800 meters
JEMMA SIMPSON GBR
Named to Britain’s World Championships team
Currently eighth in the WAT standings

MARILYN OKORO GBR
Named to Britain’s World Championships team

also:
BECKY LYNE GBR
JENNY MEADOWS GBR
MARIAN BURNETT GUY
IRENE JELAGAT KEN
SANDRA TEIXEIRA POR
LUCIA KLOCOVA SVK
TRENIERE CLEMENT USA
NIKEYA GREEN USA

3000 meters
JO PAVEY GBR
IAAF World Rank: #6
Named to Britain’s World Championships team (5k & 10k)
Currently tied for ninth in the WAT standings

DEENA KASTOR USA
The marathoner's PR in this event is 8:42.6, set seven years ago;
she ran 8:44.45 last week in Monaco

also:
SARAH JAMIESON AUS
MALINDI ELMORE CAN
MEGAN METCALFE CAN
HELEN CLITHEROE GBR
HATTI DEAN GBR
FAYE FULLERTON GBR
LAURA KENNEY GBR
SOPHIE MORRIS GBR
KATE REED GBR
STEPHANIE TWELL GBR
KATRINA WOOTTON GBR
SABRINA MOCKENHAUPT GER
MARY CULLEN IRL
LAUREN FLESHMAN USA
AMY MORTIMER USA

Pole Vault
YELENA ISINBAYEVA RUS
When was the last time she lost? No, seriously, I'm asking because I don't know.

FABIANA MURER BRA
IAAF World Rank: #3

JENN STUCZYNSKI USA
IAAF World Rank: #4
Rumored to be injured, possibly severely; dropped out of the Madrid GP meet

SVETLANA FEOFANOVA RUS
IAAF World Rank: #5
Currently eighth in the WAT standings

TATYANA POLNOVA RUS
IAAF World Rank: #6 (tie)
Currently tied for third in the WAT standings

YULIA GOLUBCHIKOVA RUS
IAAF World Rank: #6 (tie)
Currently second in the WAT standings

KATE DENNISON GBR
Named to Britain’s World Championships team

CAROLINE HINGST GER
Currently ninth in the WAT standings
Named to Germany's World Championships team

KATERINA BADUROVA CZE
Currently tied for third in the WAT standings

also:
GAO SHUYING CHN

Blogger's Thoughts on Golden League

Conway Hill at HellenicAthletes.com has some insight and ideas about the Golden League...
Major Championships...seem to have to schedule around the Golden League events. The "Majors" look to schedule around dates that the Golden League hasn't already taken - which, I'm sorry, seems backwards to me.

Then there are the National Championships, which should be one of two focused periods for the athletes. But each year, the Golden League starts right before the Championships period. Which forces athletes to decide which is more important - being ready for their Nationals, or taking time out to compete for the money.

That had some harsh effects for some athletes this year, as Sanya Richards took time out to go to Oslo and win, only to come back to the US and run sub par in her pet event, missing making the US squad by one place as a result. Similarly Asafa Powell took time to go to Oslo, only to go back to Jamaica and re-aggravate his groin injury. Our top athletes should not be put in the position to have to make these kinds of decisions.

As a result we're looking at a Golden League this year that lacks the hype and names of previous seasons.
Conway's suggestions include upping the jackpot and devising a points system. Personally, I agree the Golden League needs a revamping, although I'm not exactly sure how to do it.