Last rankings were on February 6. Changes since then in parens.
MEN
#1 Steve Hooker has started his campaign down under with 5.70 and 5.80. #5 Malte Mohr won in Leipzig. #10 Viktor Chistiakov won in Athens yesterday and was second to #6 Maksim Mazuryuk in Potsdam.
1. Steven Hooker
2 Renaud Lavillenie
3. Romain Mesnil
4. Alexander Straub
5. Malte Mohr (+3)
6. Maksym Mazuryk (+2)
7. Jeremy Scott (-2)
8. Derek Miles (-2)
9. Pavel Gerasimov (-2)
10. Viktor Chistiakov (+9)
11. Brad Walker (-3)
12. Evgeniy Lukyanenko (-1)
13. Alhaji Jeng (-1)
14. Konstantinos Filippidis (+1)
15. Kevin Rans (+3)
16. Danny Ecker (-3)
17. Aleksandr Gripich (-1)
18. Raphael Holzdeppe (+1)
19. Steven Lewis (-5)
20. Damiel Dossévi (new)
WOMEN
#1 Yelena Isinbayeva won with ease in Moscow with a world-leading 4.85. #3 Anna Rogowska beat #2 Fabiana Murer in Poland to even their season score at 1-1. These three are head-and-shoulders above the rest. Jen (Stuczynski) Suhr continues to fall in the rankings due to inactivity.
1. Yelena Isinbayeva
2. Fabiana de Almeida Murer
3. Anna Rogowska (+1)
4. Yuliya Golubchikova (-1)
5. Silke Spiegelburg
6. Svetlana Feofanova (+1)
7. Jennifer Stuczynski (-1)
8. Monika Pyrek
9. Tatyana Polnova (+3)
10. Chelsea Johnson (-1)
11. Kate Dennison (-1)
12. Lacy Janson (+4)
13. Anna Battke (-2)
14. Kristina Gadschiew
15. Carolin Hingst
16. Aleksandra Kiryashova (-3)
17. Jirina Ptácníková
18. Anna Giordano Bruno (+1)
19. Anastasiya Shvedova (-1)
19. Jillian Schwartz
Thursday, February 18, 2010
What's On The Weekend
Professional
The Ras Al Kaimah Half Marathon, an IAAF silver label road race, will be run in the United Arab Emirates on Friday.
Race website / Let’s Run preview / IAAF preview / Gulf News
The Grand Prix Sul Americano, a South American Grand Prix meet, will be held in Santiago, Chile on Friday.
Meet info (in Spanish)
The AVIVA Indoor Grand Prix, an IAAF indoor permit meet, will be held in Birmingham, UK, on Saturday.
Meet website / IAAF preview / Athletics Weekly / More Than the Games / Irish Times
The KCB Nairobi Cross, an IAAF cross country permit meet and Kenya’s World Championships trials, will be run in Nairobi on Saturday.
IAAF preview / The Nation
The Super Grand Prix Chile de Atletismo, a South American Grand Prix meet, will be held in Valparaiso, Chile on Sunday.
Meet info (in Spanish)
The Marcha Atlética da Cidade de Olhao-Algarve, a B-level event in the IAAF race walking challenge, will be held in Portugal on Sunday.
IAAF preview / Race website
College
The Big East Championships take place in Manhattan’s Armory on Saturday and Sunday. A live webcast will be available from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. on Saturday and 11 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. Sunday.
Meet website / Live webcast
The Virginia Tech Challenge will be held in Blacksburg on Friday and Saturday.
The Ras Al Kaimah Half Marathon, an IAAF silver label road race, will be run in the United Arab Emirates on Friday.
Race website / Let’s Run preview / IAAF preview / Gulf News
The Grand Prix Sul Americano, a South American Grand Prix meet, will be held in Santiago, Chile on Friday.
Meet info (in Spanish)
The AVIVA Indoor Grand Prix, an IAAF indoor permit meet, will be held in Birmingham, UK, on Saturday.
Meet website / IAAF preview / Athletics Weekly / More Than the Games / Irish Times
The KCB Nairobi Cross, an IAAF cross country permit meet and Kenya’s World Championships trials, will be run in Nairobi on Saturday.
IAAF preview / The Nation
The Super Grand Prix Chile de Atletismo, a South American Grand Prix meet, will be held in Valparaiso, Chile on Sunday.
Meet info (in Spanish)
The Marcha Atlética da Cidade de Olhao-Algarve, a B-level event in the IAAF race walking challenge, will be held in Portugal on Sunday.
IAAF preview / Race website
College
The Big East Championships take place in Manhattan’s Armory on Saturday and Sunday. A live webcast will be available from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. on Saturday and 11 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. Sunday.
Meet website / Live webcast
The Virginia Tech Challenge will be held in Blacksburg on Friday and Saturday.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
High Hurdle Rankings
Most recent rankings available here. Changes since then in parens.
MEN
1. Dayron Robles (+1)
Won all three starts (Stuttgart, Dusseldorf, Stockholm)
Ran 7.48 and 7.49
2. Terrence Trammell (-1)
Won in Boston and Leipzig
Ran 7.43 and 7.49
3. David Oliver (+1)
Second in Stuttgart and Goteborg
Ran 7.49 and 7.57
4. Ryan Brathwaite (-1) won at Tyson
5. Petr Svoboda won at Karlsruhe, second at Leipzig
6. Dexter Faulk
7. David Payne
8. Dwight Thomas 2nd at Gent, 3rd at Stuttgart and Stockholm
9. Eric Mitchum (+5) 2nd at Dusseldorf and Boston, 3rd at Karlsruhe
10. Dániel Kiss (+6) 1st at Goteborg, 2nd at Stockholm
11. Aries Merritt (-2) 2nd at Tyson
12. Ryan Wilson (-2)
13. Shamar Sands (new) 1st at Gent, 3rd at Dusseldorf, 4th at Karlsruhe
14. Xiang Liu (-3)
15. Joel Brown (-3) 4th at Goteborg
16. Antwon Hicks (-3)
17. Ronnie Ash (-2)
18. Jerome Miller (new) 3rd at Tyson
19. William Sharman (-2)
19. Andrew Turner (-2)
WOMEN
1. Priscilla Lopes-Schliep (+3)
Beat Jones in Stuttgart, the deepest race of the year so far. Won in Eubonne, bombed in Gent
Ran 7.82 and 7.91
2. LoLo Jones (-1)
Won in Dusseldorf, second in Moscow
Ran 7.85
3. Dawn Harper (-1)
Idle
4. Brigitte Foster-Hylton (-1)
5. Perdita Felicien (+2) 2nd in Boston
6. Sally McLellan (-1)
7. Delloreen Ennis-London (-1)
8. Damu Cherry (+1) won in Boston
9. Virginia Powell (-1) 3rd in Boston
10. Yvette Lewis (+6) 2nd in Dusseldorf; ran 7.90 and 7.91
11. Michelle Perry (-1)
12. Tiffany Ofili 4th in Boston
13. Derval O'Rourke (-2)
14. Lacena Golding-Clarke (+1) Won in Leipzig
15. Carolin Nytra (+2) 3rd in Stuttgart, 2nd in Leipzig
16. Nickiesha Wilson (-3)
17. Tatyana Dektyarova (new) Won in Moscow, 3rd in Dusseldorf, ran 7.94
18. Anay Tejeda
19. Jessica Ennis (-5)
20. Queen Harrison (new) ran 7.97
MEN
1. Dayron Robles (+1)
Won all three starts (Stuttgart, Dusseldorf, Stockholm)
Ran 7.48 and 7.49
2. Terrence Trammell (-1)
Won in Boston and Leipzig
Ran 7.43 and 7.49
3. David Oliver (+1)
Second in Stuttgart and Goteborg
Ran 7.49 and 7.57
4. Ryan Brathwaite (-1) won at Tyson
5. Petr Svoboda won at Karlsruhe, second at Leipzig
6. Dexter Faulk
7. David Payne
8. Dwight Thomas 2nd at Gent, 3rd at Stuttgart and Stockholm
9. Eric Mitchum (+5) 2nd at Dusseldorf and Boston, 3rd at Karlsruhe
10. Dániel Kiss (+6) 1st at Goteborg, 2nd at Stockholm
11. Aries Merritt (-2) 2nd at Tyson
12. Ryan Wilson (-2)
13. Shamar Sands (new) 1st at Gent, 3rd at Dusseldorf, 4th at Karlsruhe
14. Xiang Liu (-3)
15. Joel Brown (-3) 4th at Goteborg
16. Antwon Hicks (-3)
17. Ronnie Ash (-2)
18. Jerome Miller (new) 3rd at Tyson
19. William Sharman (-2)
19. Andrew Turner (-2)
WOMEN
1. Priscilla Lopes-Schliep (+3)
Beat Jones in Stuttgart, the deepest race of the year so far. Won in Eubonne, bombed in Gent
Ran 7.82 and 7.91
2. LoLo Jones (-1)
Won in Dusseldorf, second in Moscow
Ran 7.85
3. Dawn Harper (-1)
Idle
4. Brigitte Foster-Hylton (-1)
5. Perdita Felicien (+2) 2nd in Boston
6. Sally McLellan (-1)
7. Delloreen Ennis-London (-1)
8. Damu Cherry (+1) won in Boston
9. Virginia Powell (-1) 3rd in Boston
10. Yvette Lewis (+6) 2nd in Dusseldorf; ran 7.90 and 7.91
11. Michelle Perry (-1)
12. Tiffany Ofili 4th in Boston
13. Derval O'Rourke (-2)
14. Lacena Golding-Clarke (+1) Won in Leipzig
15. Carolin Nytra (+2) 3rd in Stuttgart, 2nd in Leipzig
16. Nickiesha Wilson (-3)
17. Tatyana Dektyarova (new) Won in Moscow, 3rd in Dusseldorf, ran 7.94
18. Anay Tejeda
19. Jessica Ennis (-5)
20. Queen Harrison (new) ran 7.97
Weekly Awards
The performance of the week award goes to Nadzeya Ostapchuk for her 21.70 meter (71’ 2¼”) shot put at the Belarus Indoor Championships. It’s not just the best performance of the week, it’s by far the best performance of the year.
I make these performance of the week choices based on a points table I’ve developed using yearly lists of the last decade as well as all-time lists. It's literally off the chart.
I make these performance of the week choices based on a points table I’ve developed using yearly lists of the last decade as well as all-time lists. It's literally off the chart.
Ostapchuk’s mark puts her at #3 on the official all-time indoor list. The way I look at it, it’s a world record. Not an indoor world record, but a world record, period.
The official world record stands at 22.63 (74’ 2¾”) by the USSR’s Natalya Lisovskaya in 1987. While that’s official, it’s not what I use to judge performances by today’s athletes any more than I’d use Uwe Hohn’s 343’ to judge javelin throwers. The rules to the javelin were rewritten in 1986 with the effect of shortening throws, and the IAAF no longer recognizes Hohn’s mark. In 1992 the rules of competition for all athletes were rewritten, but no one officially recognizes this changeover.
Two near-simultaneous occurrences led to a decrease in performance for many (but not all) events. The adoption of random out-of-competition drug testing and the implosion of east European state-sponsored sports programs led to big changes in throwing events in general and the shot put in particular, and all women’s events save the newly-emerging ones (400 hurdles, long distance, walks, pole vault, triple jump, hammer). The intersection between these sets is the women’s shot put, which has seen a bigger drop in performance than any other event.
Here is the official all-time top ten list:
22.63 Natalya Lisovskaya 1987
22.50i Helena Fibingerová 1977
22.45 Ilona Briesenick 1980
22.19 Claudia Losch 1987
21.89 Ivanka Khristova 1976
21.86 Marianne Adam 1979
21.76 Li Meisu 1988
21.73 Natalya Akhrimenko 1988
21.70i Nadzeya Ostapchuk 2010
21.69 Vita Pavlysh 1998
Note how all of the top eight were made prior to Ben Johnson’s famous episode.
Here’s my all-time top ten list (1992 to date):
21.70i Nadzeya Ostapchuk 2010
21.22 Astrid Kumbernuss 1995
21.07 Valerie Vili 2009
21.06 Svetlana Krivelyova 1992
20.96 Belsy Laza 1992
20.70 Natallia Mikhnevich 2008
20.54 Liuhong Zhang 1994
20.35 Lijiao Gong 2009
20.24 Anna Romanova 1993
20.20 Nadine Kleinert 2009
You may wonder what happened to Pavlysh’s 21.69 from the first list. I struck it from my list, as she received a doping ban in 1999 (along with a second one in 2004, that time for life). Four other athletes would have made my top-ten list but I removed them because of their “doping vacations”:
21.46 Larisa Peleshenko 2000
21.15i Irina Korzhanenko 1999
20.61 Yanina Karolchyk-Pravalinskay 2001
20.32 Irina Khudoroshkina 1996
Of course it’s impossible to say for certain whether or not these athletes were on the juice prior to a positive test. But the reason I maintain these lists is to see how today’s athletes stack up against history, and I don’t think it’s reasonable to compare today’s tightly-controlled athletes to those who at some point got into trouble.
In any case, Ostapchuk’s mark was by far the best by an athlete who has (so far) passed strict doping control. Her second-best mark of the competition, 21.23, also broke Kumbernuss’ fifteen-year-old “record”. It’s possible to argue it’s a better mark than either of Usain Bolt’s records.
In light of that, is it unreasonable to wonder if Ostapchuk’s sudden jump in performance is legitimate? Not really. After the Bernie Madoff scandal came out, all kinds of people said that an investment fund that always increased in value regardless of the larger economy was suspicious and should have been investigated. The same skeptical approach is applicable here. This was Ostapchuk’s first competition of the year, and her two measured throws both broke the “world record”.
This does not mean I’m accusing her of doping, although that’s not an unreasonable thought given the history and nature of the event. It’s also possible that something wasn’t right about the facility or the measurements. Note that in the men’s competition, Andrei Mikhnevich broke his own national indoor record four times in his six attempts. Either one of these is surprising, but both on the same day makes me wonder.
The official world record stands at 22.63 (74’ 2¾”) by the USSR’s Natalya Lisovskaya in 1987. While that’s official, it’s not what I use to judge performances by today’s athletes any more than I’d use Uwe Hohn’s 343’ to judge javelin throwers. The rules to the javelin were rewritten in 1986 with the effect of shortening throws, and the IAAF no longer recognizes Hohn’s mark. In 1992 the rules of competition for all athletes were rewritten, but no one officially recognizes this changeover.
Two near-simultaneous occurrences led to a decrease in performance for many (but not all) events. The adoption of random out-of-competition drug testing and the implosion of east European state-sponsored sports programs led to big changes in throwing events in general and the shot put in particular, and all women’s events save the newly-emerging ones (400 hurdles, long distance, walks, pole vault, triple jump, hammer). The intersection between these sets is the women’s shot put, which has seen a bigger drop in performance than any other event.
Here is the official all-time top ten list:
22.63 Natalya Lisovskaya 1987
22.50i Helena Fibingerová 1977
22.45 Ilona Briesenick 1980
22.19 Claudia Losch 1987
21.89 Ivanka Khristova 1976
21.86 Marianne Adam 1979
21.76 Li Meisu 1988
21.73 Natalya Akhrimenko 1988
21.70i Nadzeya Ostapchuk 2010
21.69 Vita Pavlysh 1998
Note how all of the top eight were made prior to Ben Johnson’s famous episode.
Here’s my all-time top ten list (1992 to date):
21.70i Nadzeya Ostapchuk 2010
21.22 Astrid Kumbernuss 1995
21.07 Valerie Vili 2009
21.06 Svetlana Krivelyova 1992
20.96 Belsy Laza 1992
20.70 Natallia Mikhnevich 2008
20.54 Liuhong Zhang 1994
20.35 Lijiao Gong 2009
20.24 Anna Romanova 1993
20.20 Nadine Kleinert 2009
You may wonder what happened to Pavlysh’s 21.69 from the first list. I struck it from my list, as she received a doping ban in 1999 (along with a second one in 2004, that time for life). Four other athletes would have made my top-ten list but I removed them because of their “doping vacations”:
21.46 Larisa Peleshenko 2000
21.15i Irina Korzhanenko 1999
20.61 Yanina Karolchyk-Pravalinskay 2001
20.32 Irina Khudoroshkina 1996
Of course it’s impossible to say for certain whether or not these athletes were on the juice prior to a positive test. But the reason I maintain these lists is to see how today’s athletes stack up against history, and I don’t think it’s reasonable to compare today’s tightly-controlled athletes to those who at some point got into trouble.
In any case, Ostapchuk’s mark was by far the best by an athlete who has (so far) passed strict doping control. Her second-best mark of the competition, 21.23, also broke Kumbernuss’ fifteen-year-old “record”. It’s possible to argue it’s a better mark than either of Usain Bolt’s records.
In light of that, is it unreasonable to wonder if Ostapchuk’s sudden jump in performance is legitimate? Not really. After the Bernie Madoff scandal came out, all kinds of people said that an investment fund that always increased in value regardless of the larger economy was suspicious and should have been investigated. The same skeptical approach is applicable here. This was Ostapchuk’s first competition of the year, and her two measured throws both broke the “world record”.
This does not mean I’m accusing her of doping, although that’s not an unreasonable thought given the history and nature of the event. It’s also possible that something wasn’t right about the facility or the measurements. Note that in the men’s competition, Andrei Mikhnevich broke his own national indoor record four times in his six attempts. Either one of these is surprising, but both on the same day makes me wonder.
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Olympic Imagery
On last Thursday's Colbert Report, David Ross makes some very good points about the changes in Olympic imagery and how they are now bland and broing.
| The Colbert Report | Mon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c | |||
| David Ross | ||||
| ||||
Friday, February 12, 2010
What's On the Weekend
Professionals
The Reunión Internacional Ciudad de Valencia, an IAAF indoor permit meet, will take place in Valencia, Spain, on Saturday.
Meet website
The USATF cross country championships will be run in Spokane on Saturday. Headliners are 5k/10k aces Dathan Ritzenhein and Shalane Flanagan. Flocast will have a live webcast of the meet.
Meet website / Flotrack coverage / Live webcast link / USATF preview
The Toyota Indoor Flanders, another IAAF indoor permit meet, will take place in Gent, Belgium, on Sunday.
Meet website
The Chiba International Cross Country, an IAAF cross country permit meet, will take place in Chiba, Japan, on Sunday.
IAAF preview / Kyodo News
Colleges
The Iowa State Classic will be held in Ames on Friday and Saturday.
Flocast coverage
The Husky Classic will be held in Seattle on Friday and Saturday.
Info & preview / Live webcast / Flocast coverage
The Tyson Invitational will be held in Fayetteville on Friday and Saturday.
Info & preview
The Texas A&M Challenge, a matchup between the Big 12, SEC, and Conference USA, will be held in College Station on Saturday.
Flocast coverage
The Reunión Internacional Ciudad de Valencia, an IAAF indoor permit meet, will take place in Valencia, Spain, on Saturday.
Meet website
The USATF cross country championships will be run in Spokane on Saturday. Headliners are 5k/10k aces Dathan Ritzenhein and Shalane Flanagan. Flocast will have a live webcast of the meet.
Meet website / Flotrack coverage / Live webcast link / USATF preview
The Toyota Indoor Flanders, another IAAF indoor permit meet, will take place in Gent, Belgium, on Sunday.
Meet website
The Chiba International Cross Country, an IAAF cross country permit meet, will take place in Chiba, Japan, on Sunday.
IAAF preview / Kyodo News
Colleges
The Iowa State Classic will be held in Ames on Friday and Saturday.
Flocast coverage
The Husky Classic will be held in Seattle on Friday and Saturday.
Info & preview / Live webcast / Flocast coverage
The Tyson Invitational will be held in Fayetteville on Friday and Saturday.
Info & preview
The Texas A&M Challenge, a matchup between the Big 12, SEC, and Conference USA, will be held in College Station on Saturday.
Flocast coverage
Thursday, February 11, 2010
High Jump Rankings
Previous rankings available here. Changes since then in parens.
MEN
1. Ivan Ukhov
Two more wins, one in Arnstadt on Saturday (2.32) and one in Moscow on Sunday (2.35)
2. Yaroslav Rybakov
Second to Ukhov in Arnstadt with 2.33
3. Andra Manson (+1)
Won with 2.32 in Poland yesterday
4. Jesse Williams (-1)
5. Linus Thörnblad
6. Jaroslav Bába 2nd in Brno, 4th in Poland
7. Aleksandr Shustov (+3) 2nd in Moscow with 2.32
8. Andrey Tereshin (-1) 3rd in Poland
9. Dusty Jonas (-1) tied for 3rd in Moscow
10. Aleksey Dmitrik (+3) won in Brno with 2.31
11. Raul Spank (-2)
12. Kyriakos Ioannou (+5) 2nd in Poland win 2.30
13. Osku Torro (-2)
14. Dmytro Dem'yanyuk (-2)
15. Viktor Shapoval (-1)
15. Tora Harris (-1)
17. Sylwester Bednarek
18. Sergey Mudrov (-2)
19. Alessandro Talotti
20. Samson Oni
WOMEN
1. Blanka Vlašic
Two big wins in Arnstadt (2.06) and Stockholm (2.01)
2. Ariane Friedrich
Idle this week
3. Ruth Beitia
Won in Brno with 1.98
4. Irina Gordeeva 3rd at Arnstadt, 4th in Stockholm
5. Svetlana Shkolina (+5) 2nd in Arnstadt with 2.00
6. Chaunté Howard Lowe (-1) 5th at both Arnstadt and Stockholm
7. Anna Chicherova
8. Marina Aitova (-3) 7th at Arnstadt
9. Viktoriya Klyugina (-1) 6th at Arnstadt
10. Antonietta Di Martino (-1)
11. Emma Green (+1) 2nd in Stockholm
12. Iva Straková (-1) 3rd in Brno
13. Meike Kröger (+5) 4th in Arnstadt with 1.96
14. Levern Spencer (-1) 8th at Arnstadt, 3rd at Stockholm
15. Melanie Melfort 4th in Brno
16. Nicole Forrester (new) 2nd in Brno
17. Nadiya Dusanova (-3)
18. Elena Slesarenko (-3)
19. Jessica Ennis (-2)
20. Amy Acuff (-1)
MEN
1. Ivan Ukhov
Two more wins, one in Arnstadt on Saturday (2.32) and one in Moscow on Sunday (2.35)
2. Yaroslav Rybakov
Second to Ukhov in Arnstadt with 2.33
3. Andra Manson (+1)
Won with 2.32 in Poland yesterday
4. Jesse Williams (-1)
5. Linus Thörnblad
6. Jaroslav Bába 2nd in Brno, 4th in Poland
7. Aleksandr Shustov (+3) 2nd in Moscow with 2.32
8. Andrey Tereshin (-1) 3rd in Poland
9. Dusty Jonas (-1) tied for 3rd in Moscow
10. Aleksey Dmitrik (+3) won in Brno with 2.31
11. Raul Spank (-2)
12. Kyriakos Ioannou (+5) 2nd in Poland win 2.30
13. Osku Torro (-2)
14. Dmytro Dem'yanyuk (-2)
15. Viktor Shapoval (-1)
15. Tora Harris (-1)
17. Sylwester Bednarek
18. Sergey Mudrov (-2)
19. Alessandro Talotti
20. Samson Oni
WOMEN
1. Blanka Vlašic
Two big wins in Arnstadt (2.06) and Stockholm (2.01)
2. Ariane Friedrich
Idle this week
3. Ruth Beitia
Won in Brno with 1.98
4. Irina Gordeeva 3rd at Arnstadt, 4th in Stockholm
5. Svetlana Shkolina (+5) 2nd in Arnstadt with 2.00
6. Chaunté Howard Lowe (-1) 5th at both Arnstadt and Stockholm
7. Anna Chicherova
8. Marina Aitova (-3) 7th at Arnstadt
9. Viktoriya Klyugina (-1) 6th at Arnstadt
10. Antonietta Di Martino (-1)
11. Emma Green (+1) 2nd in Stockholm
12. Iva Straková (-1) 3rd in Brno
13. Meike Kröger (+5) 4th in Arnstadt with 1.96
14. Levern Spencer (-1) 8th at Arnstadt, 3rd at Stockholm
15. Melanie Melfort 4th in Brno
16. Nicole Forrester (new) 2nd in Brno
17. Nadiya Dusanova (-3)
18. Elena Slesarenko (-3)
19. Jessica Ennis (-2)
20. Amy Acuff (-1)
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
National College Rankings, Women
A follow-up on yesterday's post. Remember, these are based on USTFCA national and regional rankings, and more or less project ability to compete at a conference-type meet.
1. Texas A&M
2. Clemson
3. Arkansas
4. LSU
5. Texas
6. Oregon
7. BYU
8. Auburn
9. Penn State
10. Florida
11. Arizona
12. Tennessee
13. Stanford
14. Baylor
15. Georgia
16. South Carolina
17. Louisville
18. Texas Tech
19. Nebraska
20. North Carolina
21. Minnesota
22. Southern Ill
23. Miami (Fl)
24. Mississippi
25. Virginia Tech
Leaders by conference...
Big Ten: Penn State
Big 12: Texas A&M
MPSF: Oregon
SEC: Arkansas
ACC: Clemson
Big East: Louisville
Conference USA: Houston
Mountain West: BYU
Atlantic 10: Charlotte
America East: Boston U
Atlantic Sun: Jacksonville
Big South: Liberty
Big Sky: Sacramento St
Great West: Utah Valley
Horizon League: Butler
Ivy League: Princeton
MAAC: Manhattan
MAC: Miami (OH)
MEAC: Hampton
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
NEC: Monmouth
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Patriot League: Bucknell
Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee
Summit League: North Dakota St
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
Southern: Appalachian St
SWAC: Grambling
WAC: Louisiana Tech
1. Texas A&M
2. Clemson
3. Arkansas
4. LSU
5. Texas
6. Oregon
7. BYU
8. Auburn
9. Penn State
10. Florida
11. Arizona
12. Tennessee
13. Stanford
14. Baylor
15. Georgia
16. South Carolina
17. Louisville
18. Texas Tech
19. Nebraska
20. North Carolina
21. Minnesota
22. Southern Ill
23. Miami (Fl)
24. Mississippi
25. Virginia Tech
Leaders by conference...
Big Ten: Penn State
Big 12: Texas A&M
MPSF: Oregon
SEC: Arkansas
ACC: Clemson
Big East: Louisville
Conference USA: Houston
Mountain West: BYU
Atlantic 10: Charlotte
America East: Boston U
Atlantic Sun: Jacksonville
Big South: Liberty
Big Sky: Sacramento St
Great West: Utah Valley
Horizon League: Butler
Ivy League: Princeton
MAAC: Manhattan
MAC: Miami (OH)
MEAC: Hampton
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
NEC: Monmouth
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Patriot League: Bucknell
Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee
Summit League: North Dakota St
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
Southern: Appalachian St
SWAC: Grambling
WAC: Louisiana Tech
New Millenium Records?
Starting the record book over at the new millenium has been thrown around as a way to get unapproachable dirty marks off the books (and to recognize rules changes in the pole vault). Track & Field News has listed them off. Apparently, they've forgotten when the millenium ended, as some of their marks are from 2000, but that's not important.
Since the ostensible reason for such a clearing of the books is to clean them, paired with this proposal should be a requirement to strip records from athletes who are given major (multi-year) doping bans. Changes to T&FN's list of records would be thus:
MEN
3000m: Ali Saïdi-Sief's 7:25.02 out, Kenenisa Bekele's 7:25.79 in
20k Walk: Vladimir Kanaykin's 1:17:06 out, Jefferson Pérez's 1:17:21 in
Hammer throw: Ivan Tikhon's 86.73 out, Koji Murofushi's 84.86 in
WOMEN
1500m: Süreyya Ayhan's 3:55.33 out, Maryam Yusuf Jamal's 3:56.18 in
20k Walk: Olimpiada Ivanova's 1:25:41 out, Olga Kanaskina's 1:25:42 in
Shot put: Larisa Peleshenko's 21.46 out, Nadzeya Ostapchuk's 21.09 in
Discus throw: Natalya Sadova's 69.38 out, Irina Yatchenko's 69.14 in
Since the ostensible reason for such a clearing of the books is to clean them, paired with this proposal should be a requirement to strip records from athletes who are given major (multi-year) doping bans. Changes to T&FN's list of records would be thus:
MEN
3000m: Ali Saïdi-Sief's 7:25.02 out, Kenenisa Bekele's 7:25.79 in
20k Walk: Vladimir Kanaykin's 1:17:06 out, Jefferson Pérez's 1:17:21 in
Hammer throw: Ivan Tikhon's 86.73 out, Koji Murofushi's 84.86 in
WOMEN
1500m: Süreyya Ayhan's 3:55.33 out, Maryam Yusuf Jamal's 3:56.18 in
20k Walk: Olimpiada Ivanova's 1:25:41 out, Olga Kanaskina's 1:25:42 in
Shot put: Larisa Peleshenko's 21.46 out, Nadzeya Ostapchuk's 21.09 in
Discus throw: Natalya Sadova's 69.38 out, Irina Yatchenko's 69.14 in
Tuesday, February 09, 2010
Curtis Beach
Way down the page in Let's Run's weekly recap, they compare Curtis Beach's high school decathlon record to Roman Sebrle's world record. Not a valid comparison; Sebrle was 26 years old when he set that record.
A more valid comparison is with an up-and-coming decathlete who was also an age-group ace. Andrey Krauchenka of Belarus is #3 on the all-time junior (under-20) list. Marks for Krauchenka are first, Beach second.
100m: 11.09 / 11.05
LJ: 7.46 / 7.19
SP: 14.51 / 11.00
HJ: 2.00 / 2.04
400m: 48.98 / 47.96
110H: 14.55 / 14.77
DT: 43.45 / 32.96
PV: 4.50 / 4.70
JT: 52.34 / 42.13
1500: 4:28.46 / 4:25.40
Beach leads in five of the ten events (blue), but where he's behind (red) it's huge--ten feet in the shot, 35 in the disc, 30 in the jav. Fortunately, those are the events where large improvements are possible. If he can become an adequate thrower, he's going to be a monster.
A more valid comparison is with an up-and-coming decathlete who was also an age-group ace. Andrey Krauchenka of Belarus is #3 on the all-time junior (under-20) list. Marks for Krauchenka are first, Beach second.
100m: 11.09 / 11.05
LJ: 7.46 / 7.19
SP: 14.51 / 11.00
HJ: 2.00 / 2.04
400m: 48.98 / 47.96
110H: 14.55 / 14.77
DT: 43.45 / 32.96
PV: 4.50 / 4.70
JT: 52.34 / 42.13
1500: 4:28.46 / 4:25.40
Beach leads in five of the ten events (blue), but where he's behind (red) it's huge--ten feet in the shot, 35 in the disc, 30 in the jav. Fortunately, those are the events where large improvements are possible. If he can become an adequate thrower, he's going to be a monster.
National College Rankings
The USTFCA came out with their national rankings today. Mine are based on theirs, and more or less reflect how competitive teams are at a conference-type meet.
These are for men. Women's rankings are coming soon (tomorrow if I get another snow day). Last week's ranking in parens.
1. Texas A&M (1)
2. Arkansas (2)
3. Georgia (4)
4. Nebraska (3)
5. Tennessee (11)
6. LSU (4)
7. Texas (5)
8. Florida (17)
9. Oregon (6)
10. Arizona St (9)
11. Arizona (7)
12. Stanford (8)
13. Oklahoma (15)
14. Baylor (10)
15. UCLA (new)
16. Alabama (new)
17. Illinois (19)
18. Florida St (16)
19. Mississippi (new)
20. Washington St (14)
21. Minnesota (13)
22. Louisville (25)
23. Texas Tech (new)
24. Ohio State (22)
25. Houston (new)
Changes in conference leaders...
Big Ten: Illinois
Big Sky: Sacramento State
Horizon League: Butler
Ivy League: Cornell
NEC: Long Island
Sun Belt: Louisiana
Southland: Texas-San Antonio
These are for men. Women's rankings are coming soon (tomorrow if I get another snow day). Last week's ranking in parens.
1. Texas A&M (1)
2. Arkansas (2)
3. Georgia (4)
4. Nebraska (3)
5. Tennessee (11)
6. LSU (4)
7. Texas (5)
8. Florida (17)
9. Oregon (6)
10. Arizona St (9)
11. Arizona (7)
12. Stanford (8)
13. Oklahoma (15)
14. Baylor (10)
15. UCLA (new)
16. Alabama (new)
17. Illinois (19)
18. Florida St (16)
19. Mississippi (new)
20. Washington St (14)
21. Minnesota (13)
22. Louisville (25)
23. Texas Tech (new)
24. Ohio State (22)
25. Houston (new)
Changes in conference leaders...
Big Ten: Illinois
Big Sky: Sacramento State
Horizon League: Butler
Ivy League: Cornell
NEC: Long Island
Sun Belt: Louisiana
Southland: Texas-San Antonio
USA versus USSR Dual Meets
Bleacher Report calls them the greatest track meets of all time. Good post, well worth reading.
A few weeks ago I noticed a several-day uptick in hits on this topical blog post. Research, perhaps?
A few weeks ago I noticed a several-day uptick in hits on this topical blog post. Research, perhaps?
What's On Tomorrow
The GE Galan, an IAAF indoor permit meet, will take place in Stockholm's Globe Arena. There will be some good matchups, and the deepest event will likely be the men's triple jump.
Meet website / IAAF preview / Let's Run
Pedo's Cup, an EAA indoor meeting, will take place in Bydgoszcz, Poland. The meet will be an all-field event affair.
Meet website (in Polish) / EAA preview
Meet website / IAAF preview / Let's Run
Pedo's Cup, an EAA indoor meeting, will take place in Bydgoszcz, Poland. The meet will be an all-field event affair.
Meet website (in Polish) / EAA preview
Shot Put Rankings
This is the first event to have its rankings updated in the new year. I'm concentrating on the events that get the most play indoors, namely field events and hurdles.
The last rankings were posted on January 27, nearly two weeks ago. Movements up or down since then are in parens.
MEN
1. Christian Cantwell
Won at Millrose with a big 21.95
2. Reese Hoffa
Second at Millrose
3. Tomasz Majewski
Second in his season-opening competition in Dusseldorf
4. Daniel Taylor
5. Ralf Bartels won in Dusseldorf
6. Andrei Mikhnevich (+1) threw 21.30 in Mogilev
7. Ryan Whiting (+1) threw 21.24 and 20.57
8. Pavel Lyzhyn (+2) threw 21.12 for second in Mogilev
9. Adam Nelson (-3) third at Millrose
10. Dylan Armstrong (-1) fourth at Dusseldorf
11. Pavel Sofin
12. Dorian Scott
12. Sultan Abdulmajeed Alhabashi
14. Maksim Sidorov
15. Zach Lloyd (+1)
16. Marco Schmidt (-2) threw 20.58
17. Maris Urtans
18. Noah Bryant
19. Cory Martin (NEW) threw 20.52 and 20.50
20. Rhuben Williams
WOMEN
1. Valerie Vili
Hasn't started her season, but still holds the top spot
2. Nadine Kleinert
3. Lijiao Gong
4. Anna Avdeeva (+1) threw 18.90
5. Natallia Mikhnevich (-1)
6. Nadzeya Ostapchuk
7. Denise Hinrichs
8. Anca Heltne
9. Petra Lammert
10. Meiju Li
11. Misleydis González
12. Michelle Carter
13. Mailín Vargas
14. Christina Schwanitz
15. Chiara Rosa
16. Ling Li
17. Yanina Privalinskaya-Karolchik (NEW) threw 18.78
18. Anna Omarova (+2)
19. Xiangrong Liu (-1)
20. Assunta Legnante (-2)
The last rankings were posted on January 27, nearly two weeks ago. Movements up or down since then are in parens.
MEN
1. Christian Cantwell
Won at Millrose with a big 21.95
2. Reese Hoffa
Second at Millrose
3. Tomasz Majewski
Second in his season-opening competition in Dusseldorf
4. Daniel Taylor
5. Ralf Bartels won in Dusseldorf
6. Andrei Mikhnevich (+1) threw 21.30 in Mogilev
7. Ryan Whiting (+1) threw 21.24 and 20.57
8. Pavel Lyzhyn (+2) threw 21.12 for second in Mogilev
9. Adam Nelson (-3) third at Millrose
10. Dylan Armstrong (-1) fourth at Dusseldorf
11. Pavel Sofin
12. Dorian Scott
12. Sultan Abdulmajeed Alhabashi
14. Maksim Sidorov
15. Zach Lloyd (+1)
16. Marco Schmidt (-2) threw 20.58
17. Maris Urtans
18. Noah Bryant
19. Cory Martin (NEW) threw 20.52 and 20.50
20. Rhuben Williams
WOMEN
1. Valerie Vili
Hasn't started her season, but still holds the top spot
2. Nadine Kleinert
3. Lijiao Gong
4. Anna Avdeeva (+1) threw 18.90
5. Natallia Mikhnevich (-1)
6. Nadzeya Ostapchuk
7. Denise Hinrichs
8. Anca Heltne
9. Petra Lammert
10. Meiju Li
11. Misleydis González
12. Michelle Carter
13. Mailín Vargas
14. Christina Schwanitz
15. Chiara Rosa
16. Ling Li
17. Yanina Privalinskaya-Karolchik (NEW) threw 18.78
18. Anna Omarova (+2)
19. Xiangrong Liu (-1)
20. Assunta Legnante (-2)
Monday, February 08, 2010
Pole Vault Rankings
MEN
There's been precious little in terms of quality marks from men's pole vaulters so far this year.
1. Steven Hooker (Australia)
Hasn't competed yet, but was so good last year he still holds the top spot.
2. Renaud Lavillenie (France)
A good mark back in December, but not all that impressive since
3. Romain Mesnil (France)
Won at Bordeaux
4. Alexander Straub (Germany) wins in Stuttgart and Dusseldorf
5. Jeremy Scott
6. Derek Miles
6. Pavel Gerasimov (Russia)
8. Brad Walker
8. Maksym Mazuryk (Ukraine)
8. Malte Mohr (Germany)
11. Evgeniy Lukyanenko (Russia)
12. Alhaji Jeng (Sweden)
13. Danny Ecker (Germany)
14. Steven Lewis (UK)
15. Konstantinos Filippidis (Greece)
15. Aleksandr Gripich (Russia)
17 Tobias Scherbarth (Germany)
18. Kevin Rans (Belgium)
19. Hendrik Gruber (Germany)
19. Raphael Holzdeppe (Germany)
19. Viktor Chistiakov (Russia)
WOMEN
1. Yelena Isinbayeva (Russia)
What, you expected someone else?
2. Fabiana de Almeida Murer (Brazil)
Opened with a big win in Stuttgart
3. Yuliya Golubchikova (Russia)
Two wins and a second behind Isi
4. Anna Rogowska (Poland) 2nd in Stuttgart
5. Silke Spiegelburg (Germany)
6. Jennifer Stuczynski
7. Svetlana Feofanova (Russia)
8. Monika Pyrek (Poland)
9. Chelsea Johnson won in New York and Boston
10. Kate Dennison (UK) won in Dresden and Wuppertal
11. Anna Battke (Germany)
12. Tatyana Polnova (Russia)
13. Aleksandra Kiryashova (Russia)
14. Kristina Gadschiew (Germany)
15. Carolin Hingst (Germany)
16. Lacy Janson
17. Jirina Ptácníková (Czech Rep.)
18. Anastasiya Shvedova (Belarus)
19. Anna Giordano Bruno (Italy)
20. Jillian Schwartz (Israel)
There's been precious little in terms of quality marks from men's pole vaulters so far this year.
1. Steven Hooker (Australia)
Hasn't competed yet, but was so good last year he still holds the top spot.
2. Renaud Lavillenie (France)
A good mark back in December, but not all that impressive since
3. Romain Mesnil (France)
Won at Bordeaux
4. Alexander Straub (Germany) wins in Stuttgart and Dusseldorf
5. Jeremy Scott
6. Derek Miles
6. Pavel Gerasimov (Russia)
8. Brad Walker
8. Maksym Mazuryk (Ukraine)
8. Malte Mohr (Germany)
11. Evgeniy Lukyanenko (Russia)
12. Alhaji Jeng (Sweden)
13. Danny Ecker (Germany)
14. Steven Lewis (UK)
15. Konstantinos Filippidis (Greece)
15. Aleksandr Gripich (Russia)
17 Tobias Scherbarth (Germany)
18. Kevin Rans (Belgium)
19. Hendrik Gruber (Germany)
19. Raphael Holzdeppe (Germany)
19. Viktor Chistiakov (Russia)
WOMEN
1. Yelena Isinbayeva (Russia)
What, you expected someone else?
2. Fabiana de Almeida Murer (Brazil)
Opened with a big win in Stuttgart
3. Yuliya Golubchikova (Russia)
Two wins and a second behind Isi
4. Anna Rogowska (Poland) 2nd in Stuttgart
5. Silke Spiegelburg (Germany)
6. Jennifer Stuczynski
7. Svetlana Feofanova (Russia)
8. Monika Pyrek (Poland)
9. Chelsea Johnson won in New York and Boston
10. Kate Dennison (UK) won in Dresden and Wuppertal
11. Anna Battke (Germany)
12. Tatyana Polnova (Russia)
13. Aleksandra Kiryashova (Russia)
14. Kristina Gadschiew (Germany)
15. Carolin Hingst (Germany)
16. Lacy Janson
17. Jirina Ptácníková (Czech Rep.)
18. Anastasiya Shvedova (Belarus)
19. Anna Giordano Bruno (Italy)
20. Jillian Schwartz (Israel)
Boston recap
My thoughts on the adidas Boston Indoor Games are coming out late. I didn’t want to put them up before the meet was on TV, and then there was this football game, and then I had to go to work. (Not that I’m above posting at work, but some network problems have made it impossible.)
First, the important stuff: I kicked ass in the fantasy league. I scored 124 out of a possible 140 points, which put me 16th on the day out of over 2000 participants. Last week’s debacle makes finishing the season in the money unlikely, but I’ve still got a chance.
TV: Not as offensive as it has sometimes been. The only cutaways were understandably during the 5k races. In them men’s race we missed Lagat leading a few laps, and the women’s race was all but an against-the-clock exhibition. No losses there. I didn’t notice as much atrocious announcing. Field events again got short shrift, with the women’s pole vault getting the usual hard-to-follow verbal rundown of makes and misses and the men’s getting no coverage at all. I give it a C; it’s passing but it won’t get you in the Honor Society.
Biggest upset: Anna Pierce was the world’s best 800/1500 runner last year, but got run down at the end by Kenia Sinclair. Big surprise there.
Best race: Men's 5k. They really set up a good one here, with two darned good Ethiopians to push the two Americans. The women's 3k was similarly well set up. Note to the rest of the world: a Worlds 1500 medalist couldn't match kicks with Ethiopia's JV team. The only secret to their dominance is that their best athletes run the longest distances, the complete opposite of everyone else.
Biggest butt-whoopin': Men's high hurdles. Everyone of note besides Trammel is on the other side of the Atlantic right now.
I Told You So: Ivory Williams winning the 60. Mike Rodgers is not nearly as well prepared for 2010 as he was for 2008 and 2009. Really, sprints are easy to predict once you have about three data points (and you can get by with two)...which makes me want to kick myself over not picking Lisa Barber.
First, the important stuff: I kicked ass in the fantasy league. I scored 124 out of a possible 140 points, which put me 16th on the day out of over 2000 participants. Last week’s debacle makes finishing the season in the money unlikely, but I’ve still got a chance.
TV: Not as offensive as it has sometimes been. The only cutaways were understandably during the 5k races. In them men’s race we missed Lagat leading a few laps, and the women’s race was all but an against-the-clock exhibition. No losses there. I didn’t notice as much atrocious announcing. Field events again got short shrift, with the women’s pole vault getting the usual hard-to-follow verbal rundown of makes and misses and the men’s getting no coverage at all. I give it a C; it’s passing but it won’t get you in the Honor Society.
Biggest upset: Anna Pierce was the world’s best 800/1500 runner last year, but got run down at the end by Kenia Sinclair. Big surprise there.
Best race: Men's 5k. They really set up a good one here, with two darned good Ethiopians to push the two Americans. The women's 3k was similarly well set up. Note to the rest of the world: a Worlds 1500 medalist couldn't match kicks with Ethiopia's JV team. The only secret to their dominance is that their best athletes run the longest distances, the complete opposite of everyone else.
Biggest butt-whoopin': Men's high hurdles. Everyone of note besides Trammel is on the other side of the Atlantic right now.
I Told You So: Ivory Williams winning the 60. Mike Rodgers is not nearly as well prepared for 2010 as he was for 2008 and 2009. Really, sprints are easy to predict once you have about three data points (and you can get by with two)...which makes me want to kick myself over not picking Lisa Barber.
Weekly Awards
The performance of the week is a tie between LaVerne Jones-Ferrette for her 6.97 60 meters in Stuttgart on Saturday, and Blanka Vlašic for her 6’ 9” (2.06 m) high jump in Arnstadt on the same day.
Jones-Ferrette ran the fastest time in that event in eleven years, and is now #6 on the all-time list (#4 if you discount Marion Jones and Ekaterini Thanou). Vlašic’s jump is the fourth-best ever indoors, just 2 cm off the world indoor record.
Honorable mentions go to Aleksey Drozdov’s 6300-point heptathlon, Yelena Isinbayeva’s 15’ 11” (4.85 m) pole vault, and Tatyana Chernova’s 4855-point pentathlon. Tops by an American was Carmelita Jeter’s 7.09, run well in arrears of Jones-Ferrette.
The competition of the week was the women’s pole vault at Moscow’s Russian Winter meet. Seven of my top 20-ranked vaulters were in action there.
Jones-Ferrette ran the fastest time in that event in eleven years, and is now #6 on the all-time list (#4 if you discount Marion Jones and Ekaterini Thanou). Vlašic’s jump is the fourth-best ever indoors, just 2 cm off the world indoor record.
Honorable mentions go to Aleksey Drozdov’s 6300-point heptathlon, Yelena Isinbayeva’s 15’ 11” (4.85 m) pole vault, and Tatyana Chernova’s 4855-point pentathlon. Tops by an American was Carmelita Jeter’s 7.09, run well in arrears of Jones-Ferrette.
The competition of the week was the women’s pole vault at Moscow’s Russian Winter meet. Seven of my top 20-ranked vaulters were in action there.
Saturday, February 06, 2010
National College Rankings
I've been doing my own dual-meet rankings, but I didn't update them this week. Mostly that's because there wasn't much action; the big Texas Tech-Nebraska dual meet was canceled due to extreme weather, and besides that there was maybe one or two dual/tri/quad meets this week, none of them involving top-level programs.
The national coaches' association has done national computer rankings for several years, but those are nothing more than fancied-up projections of NCAA championship scoring. Once you get past the top ten or so teams, that's not a terribly reliable indicator of how good a team is. It just tells you if they've got any individual stars, which doesn't say anything about the quality (or lack thereof) of the rest of the team.
The new results-reporting system mandated by the NCAA has allowed the coaches' association to do something new, though. Now they are using the same formula to do regional rankings, which project what would happen if nine separate regional championships were held. The result is much less about one or two big stars and a lot more about overall quality. It's a great for comparing teams within a region; rarely has a lower-ranked team beaten a higher-ranked team in a dual meet. Unfortunately, it doesn't give you any way of comparing teams from separate regions. Why? Well, for one reason, the regions are not balanced in the number of teams. It's a lot easier to run up a big score in the Mountain region (18 men's teams) than it is in the Mid-Atlantic region (31 men's teams). But even more importantly, the regions are not balanced in competitiveness. For example, the West region puts up far better marks than the Northeast region.
The solution is pretty easy, though. Total up the national rankings points for each region, and use that to pro-rate the regional points for each team. This takes both competitiveness and number of teams into account all at once. The results are more or less an accounting of how well a team would do at an average conference championship meet--which is the kind of meet that really matters for at least 95% of college teams. Here's the top 25 men's teams after such an adjustment, with their USTFCA national rankings in parenthesis:
1. Texas A&M (1)
2. Arkansas (7)
3. Nebraska (6)
4. Georgia (22)
5. Texas (29)
6. Oregon (3)
7. Arizona (23)
8. Stanford (10)
9. Arizona St (8)
10. Baylor (12)
11. Tennessee (37)
12. LSU (4)
13. Minnesota (13)
14. Washington St (25)
15. Oklahoma (9)
16. Florida St (2)
17. Florida (5)
18. California (16)
19. Illinois (46)
20. TCU (71)
21. Washington (27)
22. Ohio State (41)
23. Iowa (104)
24. Indiana (11)
25. Louisville (45)
There are some pretty big differences between the first and second numbers for most of these teams. Texas A&M is #1 no matter how you cut it (and their dual-meet thrashing of Texas becomes even more impressive now), but Florida State drops from #2 to #16. Iowa zooms from #104 to #23. The rumors of Arkansas' death are greatly exaggerated, and so on.
Another application of this analysis is to see who's favored to win each conference.
Major conferences
Big Ten: Minnesota
Big XII: Texas A&M
MPSF: Oregon
SEC: Arkansas
Big conferences
ACC: Florida
Big East: Louisville
Conference USA: Houston
Mountain West: TCU
WAC: Idaho
Mid-major conferences
Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Ivy League: Princeton
Mid-American: Akron
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
The rest
Atlantic 10: Charlotte
America East: Albany
Atlantic Sun: East Tennessee State
Big South: Liberty
Great West: Utah Valley
Horizon League: Wis-Milwaukee
MAAC: Manhattan
NEC: Monmouth
OVC: SE Missouri State
Patriot League: Navy
Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee
Summit League: Oral Roberts
Southern: Western Carolina
SWAC: Alabama State
It's early yet, and the rankings will change. I'll do an update just prior to the conference championships and see how well it does.
The national coaches' association has done national computer rankings for several years, but those are nothing more than fancied-up projections of NCAA championship scoring. Once you get past the top ten or so teams, that's not a terribly reliable indicator of how good a team is. It just tells you if they've got any individual stars, which doesn't say anything about the quality (or lack thereof) of the rest of the team.
The new results-reporting system mandated by the NCAA has allowed the coaches' association to do something new, though. Now they are using the same formula to do regional rankings, which project what would happen if nine separate regional championships were held. The result is much less about one or two big stars and a lot more about overall quality. It's a great for comparing teams within a region; rarely has a lower-ranked team beaten a higher-ranked team in a dual meet. Unfortunately, it doesn't give you any way of comparing teams from separate regions. Why? Well, for one reason, the regions are not balanced in the number of teams. It's a lot easier to run up a big score in the Mountain region (18 men's teams) than it is in the Mid-Atlantic region (31 men's teams). But even more importantly, the regions are not balanced in competitiveness. For example, the West region puts up far better marks than the Northeast region.
The solution is pretty easy, though. Total up the national rankings points for each region, and use that to pro-rate the regional points for each team. This takes both competitiveness and number of teams into account all at once. The results are more or less an accounting of how well a team would do at an average conference championship meet--which is the kind of meet that really matters for at least 95% of college teams. Here's the top 25 men's teams after such an adjustment, with their USTFCA national rankings in parenthesis:
1. Texas A&M (1)
2. Arkansas (7)
3. Nebraska (6)
4. Georgia (22)
5. Texas (29)
6. Oregon (3)
7. Arizona (23)
8. Stanford (10)
9. Arizona St (8)
10. Baylor (12)
11. Tennessee (37)
12. LSU (4)
13. Minnesota (13)
14. Washington St (25)
15. Oklahoma (9)
16. Florida St (2)
17. Florida (5)
18. California (16)
19. Illinois (46)
20. TCU (71)
21. Washington (27)
22. Ohio State (41)
23. Iowa (104)
24. Indiana (11)
25. Louisville (45)
There are some pretty big differences between the first and second numbers for most of these teams. Texas A&M is #1 no matter how you cut it (and their dual-meet thrashing of Texas becomes even more impressive now), but Florida State drops from #2 to #16. Iowa zooms from #104 to #23. The rumors of Arkansas' death are greatly exaggerated, and so on.
Another application of this analysis is to see who's favored to win each conference.
Major conferences
Big Ten: Minnesota
Big XII: Texas A&M
MPSF: Oregon
SEC: Arkansas
Big conferences
ACC: Florida
Big East: Louisville
Conference USA: Houston
Mountain West: TCU
WAC: Idaho
Mid-major conferences
Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Ivy League: Princeton
Mid-American: Akron
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
The rest
Atlantic 10: Charlotte
America East: Albany
Atlantic Sun: East Tennessee State
Big South: Liberty
Great West: Utah Valley
Horizon League: Wis-Milwaukee
MAAC: Manhattan
NEC: Monmouth
OVC: SE Missouri State
Patriot League: Navy
Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee
Summit League: Oral Roberts
Southern: Western Carolina
SWAC: Alabama State
It's early yet, and the rankings will change. I'll do an update just prior to the conference championships and see how well it does.
Friday, February 05, 2010
Fantasy League Preview
USATF's Pick'n'Win game enters its second week. As always, obsessively check changes to start lists.
My rundown on the likely winners at tomorrow's adidas Boston Indoor Games...
Men’s 60 meters
Right now, Mike Rodgers is a heavy favorite among the Pick’n’Win contestants. But so far he isn’t anywhere near the level of sharpness he showed in the last two years. Ivory Williams is running very well, and I see no reason to pick against him.
Men’s 400 meters
This is a tough call. Bershawn Jackson won the 600 yards last week over Renny Quow, who is also entered. Chris Brown has been a tough 400 runner over the last two years as well. I think it’s likely to come down to Jackson and Quow. I’m going with Quow, but I don’t think you could go too wrong with either one.
Men’s Mile
Nick Willis is probably the best runner in the field. Manzano could surprise him, but I doubt it.
Men’s 5000 meters
This is the headline race. Bernard Lagat is a great runner and is running very well for so early in the season. It’s hard to pick against him, but the field is hardly a bunch of pushovers. Bekana Daba is a sub-13:00 runner, Shedrack Korir ran 7:35 last year, and Sam Chelanga is coming off an impressive XC season. I would not pick Galen Rupp; he’s a bit under the weather and it’s not assured that he’ll be there.
Men’s 60m Hurdles
Trammell. If you’re determined to go for the upset, pick Mitchum. But you’ll be wrong.
Men’s Pole Vault
The field is short—just five athletes—and only one has cleared 5.60 so far this year. What you really want to avoid is the dreaded no-height. Based on that, I’m going to guess Jeremy Scott is the least likely to bomb out.
Women’s 60 meters
This was awfully close last week. On a hunch, I’m going with Muna Lee.
Women’s 200 meters
Shalonda Solomon has been pretty consistent at the indoor long-sprint game over the last few years.
Women’s 400 meters
The two reasonable choices are Monica Hargrove and DeeDee Trotter. Trotter has run faster than Hargrove this year, and coming off a few poor seasons I think she’s got more to prove—which, at times, is the difference between running indoor merely as a set-up to outdoor and racing it at the best you’ve got. So I’m taking Trotter.
Women’s 1000 meters
This is a decent field. Erin Donohue and Kenia Sinclair are very good runners. Neither is on the same level as Anna (Willard) Pierce, who is one of the best in the world at the middle distances. This is a no-brainer.
Women’s 3000 meters
This is a tough call. Hannah England and Sara Hall battled to the finish last week in New York. Shannon Rowbury and Christin Wurth-Thomas are both seriously good milers who have proven their 3k ability in the past. Genzebe Dibaba and Kalkidan Gezahegne are Ethiopian, and my Ethiopian rule is that they always show up ready to race well. The former, Tiru’s little sister, won an international cross-country race late last year. I think it’s going to come down to whether one of the two Ethiopians can shake all the American milers before the bell lap. I like Rowbury in this race, but I’m not confident.
Women’s 5000 meters
This is a Tiru Dibaba record attempt. The others are there to lend an appearance of competition, but we all know who will win.
Women’s 60m Hurdles
Damu Cherry quietly ran 7.47 for the 55 hurdles last week, which is as good a performance as anyone else in the race has put up yet. I think it will come down to her and Tiffany Ofili, but Cherry is a far more experienced athlete and that’s what tips the scales for me.
Women’s Pole Vault
Chelsea Johnson won in New York last week with a good 4.51 performance. But did you know that Lacy Janson is the world leader with 4.65, and has another 4.50 as well? Those are the two to pick from. I’m taking Janson.
My rundown on the likely winners at tomorrow's adidas Boston Indoor Games...
Men’s 60 meters
Right now, Mike Rodgers is a heavy favorite among the Pick’n’Win contestants. But so far he isn’t anywhere near the level of sharpness he showed in the last two years. Ivory Williams is running very well, and I see no reason to pick against him.
Men’s 400 meters
This is a tough call. Bershawn Jackson won the 600 yards last week over Renny Quow, who is also entered. Chris Brown has been a tough 400 runner over the last two years as well. I think it’s likely to come down to Jackson and Quow. I’m going with Quow, but I don’t think you could go too wrong with either one.
Men’s Mile
Nick Willis is probably the best runner in the field. Manzano could surprise him, but I doubt it.
Men’s 5000 meters
This is the headline race. Bernard Lagat is a great runner and is running very well for so early in the season. It’s hard to pick against him, but the field is hardly a bunch of pushovers. Bekana Daba is a sub-13:00 runner, Shedrack Korir ran 7:35 last year, and Sam Chelanga is coming off an impressive XC season. I would not pick Galen Rupp; he’s a bit under the weather and it’s not assured that he’ll be there.
Men’s 60m Hurdles
Trammell. If you’re determined to go for the upset, pick Mitchum. But you’ll be wrong.
Men’s Pole Vault
The field is short—just five athletes—and only one has cleared 5.60 so far this year. What you really want to avoid is the dreaded no-height. Based on that, I’m going to guess Jeremy Scott is the least likely to bomb out.
Women’s 60 meters
This was awfully close last week. On a hunch, I’m going with Muna Lee.
Women’s 200 meters
Shalonda Solomon has been pretty consistent at the indoor long-sprint game over the last few years.
Women’s 400 meters
The two reasonable choices are Monica Hargrove and DeeDee Trotter. Trotter has run faster than Hargrove this year, and coming off a few poor seasons I think she’s got more to prove—which, at times, is the difference between running indoor merely as a set-up to outdoor and racing it at the best you’ve got. So I’m taking Trotter.
Women’s 1000 meters
This is a decent field. Erin Donohue and Kenia Sinclair are very good runners. Neither is on the same level as Anna (Willard) Pierce, who is one of the best in the world at the middle distances. This is a no-brainer.
Women’s 3000 meters
This is a tough call. Hannah England and Sara Hall battled to the finish last week in New York. Shannon Rowbury and Christin Wurth-Thomas are both seriously good milers who have proven their 3k ability in the past. Genzebe Dibaba and Kalkidan Gezahegne are Ethiopian, and my Ethiopian rule is that they always show up ready to race well. The former, Tiru’s little sister, won an international cross-country race late last year. I think it’s going to come down to whether one of the two Ethiopians can shake all the American milers before the bell lap. I like Rowbury in this race, but I’m not confident.
Women’s 5000 meters
This is a Tiru Dibaba record attempt. The others are there to lend an appearance of competition, but we all know who will win.
Women’s 60m Hurdles
Damu Cherry quietly ran 7.47 for the 55 hurdles last week, which is as good a performance as anyone else in the race has put up yet. I think it will come down to her and Tiffany Ofili, but Cherry is a far more experienced athlete and that’s what tips the scales for me.
Women’s Pole Vault
Chelsea Johnson won in New York last week with a good 4.51 performance. But did you know that Lacy Janson is the world leader with 4.65, and has another 4.50 as well? Those are the two to pick from. I’m taking Janson.
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