I picked the men yesterday.
Women’s 60 meters
Carmelita Jeter will win unless she false-starts.
Women’s 400 meters
Allyson Felix will open her season here, and that makes this a bit unpredictable, but she’s so much better than anyone else entered that I consider her a safe pick.
Women’s 800 meters
Anna Willard is entered in both the 800 and 1500, and both finals are on the same day, so there’s some risk involved in picking her since she’ll drop out of one event or the other. All indications are that she’ll run the 800, and if so I can’t see her being beaten. Otherwise the favorite’s role would be shared by Alysia Johnson and Erin Donahue.
Women’s 1500 meters
Rowbury likewise is entered in both the 1500 and 3000, but it’s possible she could compete in both. She’d be a heavy favorite in the 1500. But what if she doesn’t run the 1500? Willard. And if she doesn’t run the 1500? Sara Hall. But Hall is entered in both the 1500 and 3000, so what if she doesn’t run the 1500? Then we go down to Erin Donahue...who is also entered in both the 800 and 1500, so if she’s not in this race I’d take Sara Bowman. Just keep your eyes peeled for any kind of indication of who is running what. The default position is Rowbury but stay vigilant.
Women’s 3000 meters
Rowbury, and if she drops out then Hall, and if she drops out then Desiree Davila. Again, keep up on the details.
Women’s 60m Hurdles
Lolo Jones is head and shoulders above the rest.
Women’s 3k Race Walk
Joanne Dow?
Women’s High Jump
Chaunte (Howard) Lowe for the win.
Women’s Pole Vault
Jenn (Stuczynski) Suhr was entered but dropped out, leaving Chelsea Johnson as a heavy favorite.
Women’s Long Jump
Hyleas Fountain has a (marginally) better mark in 2010 than Brittney Reese, but I like the world champ to win.
Women’s Triple Jump
No Americans have achieved a world-class mark this year, making this choice a bit hard. Oddi says Shakeema Welsch, I won’t disagree.
Women’s Shot Put
Michelle Carter is the big name, but Jill Camarena-Williams has had a superior season. I’ll go for the “upset”, if you can call it that, and take Williams.
Women’s Weight Throw
Amber Campbell.
Showing posts with label Fantasy League. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fantasy League. Show all posts
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Fantasy League Outlook, Men
My picks for this weekend's USATF Championships men's events. Women's picks coming tomorrow.
Men’s 60 meters
This is a two-man race between Ivory Williams and Mike Rodgers. Rodgers has sharpened up a little bit over the last week or two, but he’s still nowhere near what he was in either of the last two indoor seasons. I think Williams will win.
Men’s 400 meters
This is hard to pick because there’s been so little action among the contenders. Kerron Clement is probably the best athlete of those entered, but we don’t really know what kind of shape he’s in. Bershawn Jackson has been racing consistently and well. If he doesn’t win, he’ll be in the top three, and when faced with great uncertainty in fantasy leagues you want to go with safety.
Men’s 800 meters
Nick Symmonds hasn’t raced a whole lot, but there are two big reasons I think he’s ready to run very well. He led off the OTC’s record-setting distance medley in about 2:51, which indicates he’s ready for 1:46 or so. Secondly, the meet is in Albuquerque, at some 5300 feet of altitude, and he’s been training there for a month. I think he’s going to dominate.
Men’s 1500 meters
This is a bit enigmatic, but I’m going to take Leonel Manzano. He’s among the three or four best milers in the country, is a good tactician, and has done some altitude training.
Men’s 3000 meters
Unrabbited. Championship. Indoors. 3000 meters. At altitude. Every single factor which is an advantage to Bernard Lagat is present in this race. I can’t imagine him being beaten.
Men’s 60m Hurdles
It’s a two-man race between Terrence Trammell and David Oliver. The former is far more consistent than the latter. Pick Trammell.
Men’s 5k Race Walk.
Tim Seaman?
Men’s High Jump
This should be a three-way battle between Jesse Williams, Andra Manson and Dusty Jonas. I rate it as a toss-up. I’ll take Williams but I’m far from confident.
Men’s Pole Vault
Ugh. This has not been a good year so far for US men’s pole vaulters. Jason Colwick and Scott Roth are the only guys with decent clearances to their name, and they’re both collegians and not entered. Jeremy Scott has shown the best consistency.
Men’s Long Jump
Brian Johnson is the current world leader.
Men’s Triple Jump
Brandon Roulhac is the defending champ but hasn’t shown the same kind of form he had last year. Walter Davis is the man to take.
Men’s Shot Put
Christian Cantwell is everyone’s undisputed #1.
Men’s Weight Throw
This will probably come down to AG Kruger and Cory Martin. I like Kruger.
Men’s 60 meters
This is a two-man race between Ivory Williams and Mike Rodgers. Rodgers has sharpened up a little bit over the last week or two, but he’s still nowhere near what he was in either of the last two indoor seasons. I think Williams will win.
Men’s 400 meters
This is hard to pick because there’s been so little action among the contenders. Kerron Clement is probably the best athlete of those entered, but we don’t really know what kind of shape he’s in. Bershawn Jackson has been racing consistently and well. If he doesn’t win, he’ll be in the top three, and when faced with great uncertainty in fantasy leagues you want to go with safety.
Men’s 800 meters
Nick Symmonds hasn’t raced a whole lot, but there are two big reasons I think he’s ready to run very well. He led off the OTC’s record-setting distance medley in about 2:51, which indicates he’s ready for 1:46 or so. Secondly, the meet is in Albuquerque, at some 5300 feet of altitude, and he’s been training there for a month. I think he’s going to dominate.
Men’s 1500 meters
This is a bit enigmatic, but I’m going to take Leonel Manzano. He’s among the three or four best milers in the country, is a good tactician, and has done some altitude training.
Men’s 3000 meters
Unrabbited. Championship. Indoors. 3000 meters. At altitude. Every single factor which is an advantage to Bernard Lagat is present in this race. I can’t imagine him being beaten.
Men’s 60m Hurdles
It’s a two-man race between Terrence Trammell and David Oliver. The former is far more consistent than the latter. Pick Trammell.
Men’s 5k Race Walk.
Tim Seaman?
Men’s High Jump
This should be a three-way battle between Jesse Williams, Andra Manson and Dusty Jonas. I rate it as a toss-up. I’ll take Williams but I’m far from confident.
Men’s Pole Vault
Ugh. This has not been a good year so far for US men’s pole vaulters. Jason Colwick and Scott Roth are the only guys with decent clearances to their name, and they’re both collegians and not entered. Jeremy Scott has shown the best consistency.
Men’s Long Jump
Brian Johnson is the current world leader.
Men’s Triple Jump
Brandon Roulhac is the defending champ but hasn’t shown the same kind of form he had last year. Walter Davis is the man to take.
Men’s Shot Put
Christian Cantwell is everyone’s undisputed #1.
Men’s Weight Throw
This will probably come down to AG Kruger and Cory Martin. I like Kruger.
Monday, February 08, 2010
Boston recap
My thoughts on the adidas Boston Indoor Games are coming out late. I didn’t want to put them up before the meet was on TV, and then there was this football game, and then I had to go to work. (Not that I’m above posting at work, but some network problems have made it impossible.)
First, the important stuff: I kicked ass in the fantasy league. I scored 124 out of a possible 140 points, which put me 16th on the day out of over 2000 participants. Last week’s debacle makes finishing the season in the money unlikely, but I’ve still got a chance.
TV: Not as offensive as it has sometimes been. The only cutaways were understandably during the 5k races. In them men’s race we missed Lagat leading a few laps, and the women’s race was all but an against-the-clock exhibition. No losses there. I didn’t notice as much atrocious announcing. Field events again got short shrift, with the women’s pole vault getting the usual hard-to-follow verbal rundown of makes and misses and the men’s getting no coverage at all. I give it a C; it’s passing but it won’t get you in the Honor Society.
Biggest upset: Anna Pierce was the world’s best 800/1500 runner last year, but got run down at the end by Kenia Sinclair. Big surprise there.
Best race: Men's 5k. They really set up a good one here, with two darned good Ethiopians to push the two Americans. The women's 3k was similarly well set up. Note to the rest of the world: a Worlds 1500 medalist couldn't match kicks with Ethiopia's JV team. The only secret to their dominance is that their best athletes run the longest distances, the complete opposite of everyone else.
Biggest butt-whoopin': Men's high hurdles. Everyone of note besides Trammel is on the other side of the Atlantic right now.
I Told You So: Ivory Williams winning the 60. Mike Rodgers is not nearly as well prepared for 2010 as he was for 2008 and 2009. Really, sprints are easy to predict once you have about three data points (and you can get by with two)...which makes me want to kick myself over not picking Lisa Barber.
First, the important stuff: I kicked ass in the fantasy league. I scored 124 out of a possible 140 points, which put me 16th on the day out of over 2000 participants. Last week’s debacle makes finishing the season in the money unlikely, but I’ve still got a chance.
TV: Not as offensive as it has sometimes been. The only cutaways were understandably during the 5k races. In them men’s race we missed Lagat leading a few laps, and the women’s race was all but an against-the-clock exhibition. No losses there. I didn’t notice as much atrocious announcing. Field events again got short shrift, with the women’s pole vault getting the usual hard-to-follow verbal rundown of makes and misses and the men’s getting no coverage at all. I give it a C; it’s passing but it won’t get you in the Honor Society.
Biggest upset: Anna Pierce was the world’s best 800/1500 runner last year, but got run down at the end by Kenia Sinclair. Big surprise there.
Best race: Men's 5k. They really set up a good one here, with two darned good Ethiopians to push the two Americans. The women's 3k was similarly well set up. Note to the rest of the world: a Worlds 1500 medalist couldn't match kicks with Ethiopia's JV team. The only secret to their dominance is that their best athletes run the longest distances, the complete opposite of everyone else.
Biggest butt-whoopin': Men's high hurdles. Everyone of note besides Trammel is on the other side of the Atlantic right now.
I Told You So: Ivory Williams winning the 60. Mike Rodgers is not nearly as well prepared for 2010 as he was for 2008 and 2009. Really, sprints are easy to predict once you have about three data points (and you can get by with two)...which makes me want to kick myself over not picking Lisa Barber.
Friday, February 05, 2010
Fantasy League Preview
USATF's Pick'n'Win game enters its second week. As always, obsessively check changes to start lists.
My rundown on the likely winners at tomorrow's adidas Boston Indoor Games...
Men’s 60 meters
Right now, Mike Rodgers is a heavy favorite among the Pick’n’Win contestants. But so far he isn’t anywhere near the level of sharpness he showed in the last two years. Ivory Williams is running very well, and I see no reason to pick against him.
Men’s 400 meters
This is a tough call. Bershawn Jackson won the 600 yards last week over Renny Quow, who is also entered. Chris Brown has been a tough 400 runner over the last two years as well. I think it’s likely to come down to Jackson and Quow. I’m going with Quow, but I don’t think you could go too wrong with either one.
Men’s Mile
Nick Willis is probably the best runner in the field. Manzano could surprise him, but I doubt it.
Men’s 5000 meters
This is the headline race. Bernard Lagat is a great runner and is running very well for so early in the season. It’s hard to pick against him, but the field is hardly a bunch of pushovers. Bekana Daba is a sub-13:00 runner, Shedrack Korir ran 7:35 last year, and Sam Chelanga is coming off an impressive XC season. I would not pick Galen Rupp; he’s a bit under the weather and it’s not assured that he’ll be there.
Men’s 60m Hurdles
Trammell. If you’re determined to go for the upset, pick Mitchum. But you’ll be wrong.
Men’s Pole Vault
The field is short—just five athletes—and only one has cleared 5.60 so far this year. What you really want to avoid is the dreaded no-height. Based on that, I’m going to guess Jeremy Scott is the least likely to bomb out.
Women’s 60 meters
This was awfully close last week. On a hunch, I’m going with Muna Lee.
Women’s 200 meters
Shalonda Solomon has been pretty consistent at the indoor long-sprint game over the last few years.
Women’s 400 meters
The two reasonable choices are Monica Hargrove and DeeDee Trotter. Trotter has run faster than Hargrove this year, and coming off a few poor seasons I think she’s got more to prove—which, at times, is the difference between running indoor merely as a set-up to outdoor and racing it at the best you’ve got. So I’m taking Trotter.
Women’s 1000 meters
This is a decent field. Erin Donohue and Kenia Sinclair are very good runners. Neither is on the same level as Anna (Willard) Pierce, who is one of the best in the world at the middle distances. This is a no-brainer.
Women’s 3000 meters
This is a tough call. Hannah England and Sara Hall battled to the finish last week in New York. Shannon Rowbury and Christin Wurth-Thomas are both seriously good milers who have proven their 3k ability in the past. Genzebe Dibaba and Kalkidan Gezahegne are Ethiopian, and my Ethiopian rule is that they always show up ready to race well. The former, Tiru’s little sister, won an international cross-country race late last year. I think it’s going to come down to whether one of the two Ethiopians can shake all the American milers before the bell lap. I like Rowbury in this race, but I’m not confident.
Women’s 5000 meters
This is a Tiru Dibaba record attempt. The others are there to lend an appearance of competition, but we all know who will win.
Women’s 60m Hurdles
Damu Cherry quietly ran 7.47 for the 55 hurdles last week, which is as good a performance as anyone else in the race has put up yet. I think it will come down to her and Tiffany Ofili, but Cherry is a far more experienced athlete and that’s what tips the scales for me.
Women’s Pole Vault
Chelsea Johnson won in New York last week with a good 4.51 performance. But did you know that Lacy Janson is the world leader with 4.65, and has another 4.50 as well? Those are the two to pick from. I’m taking Janson.
My rundown on the likely winners at tomorrow's adidas Boston Indoor Games...
Men’s 60 meters
Right now, Mike Rodgers is a heavy favorite among the Pick’n’Win contestants. But so far he isn’t anywhere near the level of sharpness he showed in the last two years. Ivory Williams is running very well, and I see no reason to pick against him.
Men’s 400 meters
This is a tough call. Bershawn Jackson won the 600 yards last week over Renny Quow, who is also entered. Chris Brown has been a tough 400 runner over the last two years as well. I think it’s likely to come down to Jackson and Quow. I’m going with Quow, but I don’t think you could go too wrong with either one.
Men’s Mile
Nick Willis is probably the best runner in the field. Manzano could surprise him, but I doubt it.
Men’s 5000 meters
This is the headline race. Bernard Lagat is a great runner and is running very well for so early in the season. It’s hard to pick against him, but the field is hardly a bunch of pushovers. Bekana Daba is a sub-13:00 runner, Shedrack Korir ran 7:35 last year, and Sam Chelanga is coming off an impressive XC season. I would not pick Galen Rupp; he’s a bit under the weather and it’s not assured that he’ll be there.
Men’s 60m Hurdles
Trammell. If you’re determined to go for the upset, pick Mitchum. But you’ll be wrong.
Men’s Pole Vault
The field is short—just five athletes—and only one has cleared 5.60 so far this year. What you really want to avoid is the dreaded no-height. Based on that, I’m going to guess Jeremy Scott is the least likely to bomb out.
Women’s 60 meters
This was awfully close last week. On a hunch, I’m going with Muna Lee.
Women’s 200 meters
Shalonda Solomon has been pretty consistent at the indoor long-sprint game over the last few years.
Women’s 400 meters
The two reasonable choices are Monica Hargrove and DeeDee Trotter. Trotter has run faster than Hargrove this year, and coming off a few poor seasons I think she’s got more to prove—which, at times, is the difference between running indoor merely as a set-up to outdoor and racing it at the best you’ve got. So I’m taking Trotter.
Women’s 1000 meters
This is a decent field. Erin Donohue and Kenia Sinclair are very good runners. Neither is on the same level as Anna (Willard) Pierce, who is one of the best in the world at the middle distances. This is a no-brainer.
Women’s 3000 meters
This is a tough call. Hannah England and Sara Hall battled to the finish last week in New York. Shannon Rowbury and Christin Wurth-Thomas are both seriously good milers who have proven their 3k ability in the past. Genzebe Dibaba and Kalkidan Gezahegne are Ethiopian, and my Ethiopian rule is that they always show up ready to race well. The former, Tiru’s little sister, won an international cross-country race late last year. I think it’s going to come down to whether one of the two Ethiopians can shake all the American milers before the bell lap. I like Rowbury in this race, but I’m not confident.
Women’s 5000 meters
This is a Tiru Dibaba record attempt. The others are there to lend an appearance of competition, but we all know who will win.
Women’s 60m Hurdles
Damu Cherry quietly ran 7.47 for the 55 hurdles last week, which is as good a performance as anyone else in the race has put up yet. I think it will come down to her and Tiffany Ofili, but Cherry is a far more experienced athlete and that’s what tips the scales for me.
Women’s Pole Vault
Chelsea Johnson won in New York last week with a good 4.51 performance. But did you know that Lacy Janson is the world leader with 4.65, and has another 4.50 as well? Those are the two to pick from. I’m taking Janson.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Fantasy league preview
USATF’s online pick ‘em game gets started tomorrow with the Millrose Games. Until now, I was the only online advice for the fantasy league. USATF’s Vicky Oddi has entered the fray. In a few areas, I disagree with her picks.
Super 60
A lot of fans and an athlete or two have taken offense at this contest being included in the program. I don’t, as I see it as nothing more than celebrity track. The rules and objectives of the event haven’t been changed, unlike UKA’s harebrained extreme jumping getup.
Reading between the lines, this NY Times article makes it clear who should win the race. Willie Gault was better in his prime than any of the rest of these guys, and has stayed in better shape and competed more. Being some 10 to 25 years older than the rest of the sprinters isn’t likely to make a difference. It would be almost like matching Tom Kite against a bunch of guys who used to have low handicaps but don’t play much anymore. It’s hard to say how much stock to put in reports of a recent 4.27 for the 40 yards by Gault, but if true he’d still be among the NFL’s faster men. And against this crowd...it will be a butt-whuppin’ of Bolt proportions.
Men’s 60 meters
This was going to be a hard choice until Walter Dix pulled out. In his absence, I can’t see Mike Rodgers losing.
Men’s 600 yards
This is one event where I disagree with Oddi. Renny Quow is a far better quarter-miler than Bershawn Jackson, and has shown he can run on the boards. Easy pick.
Men’s 800 meters
This field is very weak. I’m going with Dmitrijs Milkevics.
Wanamaker Mile
This is the most intriguing matchup of the night. Seven-time champ Bernard Lagat is going up against T&FN’s #1-ranked Asbel Kiprop. I think Kiprop is a better runner than Lagat, but the tight board track is a factor that’s hard to figure out. Lagat has the experience and can accelerate off a dime, and Kiprop is very tall; all of these favor Lagat. On the other hand, they won’t matter if Kiprop is flat-out better that night. I’m going with the “first, do no harm” rule of fantasy leagues and pick Lagat, as I figure he’ll be second at worst.
Men’s 60m Hurdles
The only threat to Terrence Trammell will come from defending world outdoor champ Ryan Brathwaite. Trammell has a history of running at a high level in the domestic indoor season, so I’m going with him.
Men’s Mile Race Walk
Why do they make us pick this? Tim Seaman, I guess.
Men’s Pole Vault
Strangely, Oddi did not include this event in her picks. Smart players stand to pick up big points here. Renauld Lavillenie has already made heights equal to or better than the rest of the field did all of last year, but has been chosen by only 20% of Pick & Win players. He should be a heavy favorite, but apparently those Frenchy types aren’t known around these parts.
Men’s Shot Put
Oddi picked Adam Nelson. I disagree, and I think he’s far more likely to be last than first. Be smart and take Christian Cantwell, who has already thrown further than either Taylor or Nelson did all of last season.
Women’s 60 meters
This one is hard to choose. The 60 can be a crapshoot at times. Even worse, none of these athletes have raced much if at all so far this year, leaving us without knowledge of their condition. I’m taking Veronica Campbell-Brown, but any of the others could win.
Women’s 400 meters
This race is also hard to pick. Mary Wineberg has a good race under her belt, but has less upside than Monica Hargrove. Aliann Pompey has historically run well on the boards. Any of those three are serviceable picks. I don’t think Pompey will win, but I think she’s a safe pick for second or third.
Women’s Mile
There’s a dearth of good runners in this race. Sara Hall hasn’t impressed me at all in the last several years, so I think it’s going to come down to Sally Kipyego and Sara Bowman. It was a huge upset when Bowman won a similar matchup at last year’s NCAA indoor championship. I’m sure Kipyego hasn’t forgotten that and wants to even the score. I’m picking Kipyego.
Women’s 60m Hurdles
Priscilla Lopes-Schliep is head and shoulders above the rest of the field.
Women’s Mile Race Walk
If it’s a domestic race walk, always go with Teresa Vaill.
Women’s High Jump
Elizabeth Patterson is the best of a weak field.
Women’s Pole Vault
Jen (Stuczynski) Suhr has withdrawn, leaving Oddi to say that Chelsea Johnson is the favorite. Sadly, no. Aleksandra Kiryashova is the best of the remaining athletes.
Super 60
A lot of fans and an athlete or two have taken offense at this contest being included in the program. I don’t, as I see it as nothing more than celebrity track. The rules and objectives of the event haven’t been changed, unlike UKA’s harebrained extreme jumping getup.
Reading between the lines, this NY Times article makes it clear who should win the race. Willie Gault was better in his prime than any of the rest of these guys, and has stayed in better shape and competed more. Being some 10 to 25 years older than the rest of the sprinters isn’t likely to make a difference. It would be almost like matching Tom Kite against a bunch of guys who used to have low handicaps but don’t play much anymore. It’s hard to say how much stock to put in reports of a recent 4.27 for the 40 yards by Gault, but if true he’d still be among the NFL’s faster men. And against this crowd...it will be a butt-whuppin’ of Bolt proportions.
Men’s 60 meters
This was going to be a hard choice until Walter Dix pulled out. In his absence, I can’t see Mike Rodgers losing.
Men’s 600 yards
This is one event where I disagree with Oddi. Renny Quow is a far better quarter-miler than Bershawn Jackson, and has shown he can run on the boards. Easy pick.
Men’s 800 meters
This field is very weak. I’m going with Dmitrijs Milkevics.
Wanamaker Mile
This is the most intriguing matchup of the night. Seven-time champ Bernard Lagat is going up against T&FN’s #1-ranked Asbel Kiprop. I think Kiprop is a better runner than Lagat, but the tight board track is a factor that’s hard to figure out. Lagat has the experience and can accelerate off a dime, and Kiprop is very tall; all of these favor Lagat. On the other hand, they won’t matter if Kiprop is flat-out better that night. I’m going with the “first, do no harm” rule of fantasy leagues and pick Lagat, as I figure he’ll be second at worst.
Men’s 60m Hurdles
The only threat to Terrence Trammell will come from defending world outdoor champ Ryan Brathwaite. Trammell has a history of running at a high level in the domestic indoor season, so I’m going with him.
Men’s Mile Race Walk
Why do they make us pick this? Tim Seaman, I guess.
Men’s Pole Vault
Strangely, Oddi did not include this event in her picks. Smart players stand to pick up big points here. Renauld Lavillenie has already made heights equal to or better than the rest of the field did all of last year, but has been chosen by only 20% of Pick & Win players. He should be a heavy favorite, but apparently those Frenchy types aren’t known around these parts.
Men’s Shot Put
Oddi picked Adam Nelson. I disagree, and I think he’s far more likely to be last than first. Be smart and take Christian Cantwell, who has already thrown further than either Taylor or Nelson did all of last season.
Women’s 60 meters
This one is hard to choose. The 60 can be a crapshoot at times. Even worse, none of these athletes have raced much if at all so far this year, leaving us without knowledge of their condition. I’m taking Veronica Campbell-Brown, but any of the others could win.
Women’s 400 meters
This race is also hard to pick. Mary Wineberg has a good race under her belt, but has less upside than Monica Hargrove. Aliann Pompey has historically run well on the boards. Any of those three are serviceable picks. I don’t think Pompey will win, but I think she’s a safe pick for second or third.
Women’s Mile
There’s a dearth of good runners in this race. Sara Hall hasn’t impressed me at all in the last several years, so I think it’s going to come down to Sally Kipyego and Sara Bowman. It was a huge upset when Bowman won a similar matchup at last year’s NCAA indoor championship. I’m sure Kipyego hasn’t forgotten that and wants to even the score. I’m picking Kipyego.
Women’s 60m Hurdles
Priscilla Lopes-Schliep is head and shoulders above the rest of the field.
Women’s Mile Race Walk
If it’s a domestic race walk, always go with Teresa Vaill.
Women’s High Jump
Elizabeth Patterson is the best of a weak field.
Women’s Pole Vault
Jen (Stuczynski) Suhr has withdrawn, leaving Oddi to say that Chelsea Johnson is the favorite. Sadly, no. Aleksandra Kiryashova is the best of the remaining athletes.
Friday, August 21, 2009
Worlds, Day 7
Today
Results
Tomorrow
Schedule
TV: NBC, 1-3 PM (live); CBC, 1-3 PM (live); Versus, 8-10 PM (tape)
Web: UniversalSports.com, 5:35 AM (men's marathon), 11:45 AM (afternoon session); IAAF radio, 5 AM (marathon), 11 AM (afternoon session)
Highlights: M Marathon, W 5,000, M/W 4 x 100m, M Long Jump, M Pole Vault, W Hammer
My thoughts on the seventh day of the Worlds...
The 800 has a reputation as an unpredictable event, but this is ridiculous. Kaki trips over himself, Ismail DNFs, Kiprop blows chunks, and Reed doesn't make it. Does Symmonds have a medal chance in the final? I'd say he's probably the smartest racer in the final, and that helps a lot.
The USA 4x100 discovered that you actually CAN be too safe. As I'm writing this, it's still up in the air as to whether they make the final or not, but blame can solidly be placed at Doc Patton's feet. Not for screwing up, but for still being hurt from whatever screwed him up in the 100m final, which kept him from accelerating properly. Crawford slammed on the brakes and still ran up his ass.
Kudos to Versus for working with the rain delay that put everything behind by half an hour. They started half an hour late and ran their whole two hours plus an extra 10 or 15 minutes.
Results
Tomorrow
Schedule
TV: NBC, 1-3 PM (live); CBC, 1-3 PM (live); Versus, 8-10 PM (tape)
Web: UniversalSports.com, 5:35 AM (men's marathon), 11:45 AM (afternoon session); IAAF radio, 5 AM (marathon), 11 AM (afternoon session)
Highlights: M Marathon, W 5,000, M/W 4 x 100m, M Long Jump, M Pole Vault, W Hammer
My thoughts on the seventh day of the Worlds...
The 800 has a reputation as an unpredictable event, but this is ridiculous. Kaki trips over himself, Ismail DNFs, Kiprop blows chunks, and Reed doesn't make it. Does Symmonds have a medal chance in the final? I'd say he's probably the smartest racer in the final, and that helps a lot.
The USA 4x100 discovered that you actually CAN be too safe. As I'm writing this, it's still up in the air as to whether they make the final or not, but blame can solidly be placed at Doc Patton's feet. Not for screwing up, but for still being hurt from whatever screwed him up in the 100m final, which kept him from accelerating properly. Crawford slammed on the brakes and still ran up his ass.
Kudos to Versus for working with the rain delay that put everything behind by half an hour. They started half an hour late and ran their whole two hours plus an extra 10 or 15 minutes.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Worlds, Day 6 -- OMFG!
Unbe-f**king-believable, part II.
SI's Tim Layden weighs in.
Bolt has the longest stride of any sprinter in history and he turns it over like someone six to eight inches shorter than he is. He has a freaky combination of skills; it's like if you had Shaq and Chris Paul in one person -- you're not supposed to be able to do that in the same body.
Today
Results
Recaps: Let's Run morning info / World-Track / IAAF
Tomorrow
Schedule / Preview
TV: Versus, 1:30 to 3:30 PM
Web: UniversalSports.com, 3:10 AM (50k walk), 10:55 AM (evening session); IAAF Radio, 11 AM
Highlights: M 400, W 200, M High Jump, W Discus
My thoughts on the sixth day of the worlds...
I still can't say anything new about Bolt, so I won't try.
Based on times in his wake, I'd say this Berlin track is very, very fast.
Versus/NBC is getting better at doing field events live in between running events, but they're still missing huge stories. Trey Hardee is a new star, and he essentially clinched the decathlon title with three javelin PRs in a row. Not a single one made the screen. And while the very-fascinating women's high jump competition was covered more or less in real-time, the key moments were missed.
I got a bronze out of Ariane Friedrich in the fantasy league. I dropped Paula Radcliffe, because she dropped out of the marathon, and picked up Debbie Ferguson-McKenzie in the 200.
SI's Tim Layden weighs in.
Bolt has the longest stride of any sprinter in history and he turns it over like someone six to eight inches shorter than he is. He has a freaky combination of skills; it's like if you had Shaq and Chris Paul in one person -- you're not supposed to be able to do that in the same body.
Today
Results
Recaps: Let's Run morning info / World-Track / IAAF
Tomorrow
Schedule / Preview
TV: Versus, 1:30 to 3:30 PM
Web: UniversalSports.com, 3:10 AM (50k walk), 10:55 AM (evening session); IAAF Radio, 11 AM
Highlights: M 400, W 200, M High Jump, W Discus
My thoughts on the sixth day of the worlds...
I still can't say anything new about Bolt, so I won't try.
Based on times in his wake, I'd say this Berlin track is very, very fast.
Versus/NBC is getting better at doing field events live in between running events, but they're still missing huge stories. Trey Hardee is a new star, and he essentially clinched the decathlon title with three javelin PRs in a row. Not a single one made the screen. And while the very-fascinating women's high jump competition was covered more or less in real-time, the key moments were missed.
I got a bronze out of Ariane Friedrich in the fantasy league. I dropped Paula Radcliffe, because she dropped out of the marathon, and picked up Debbie Ferguson-McKenzie in the 200.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Worlds, Day 5
Today
Results
Afternoon session: recap / video-on-demand
Evening session recaps: IAAF / World Track / video-on-demand
Deca 100 / Deca long jump / Deca shot / Men's 400 semis / Men's 200 semis / Women's 200 heats / Men's disc / Men's 1500 / Women's 100 hurdles / Women's 800 / Deca high jump / Deca 400
Tomorrow
Schedule / Preview
TV: Versus, 1:30-3:30
Web: UniversalSports.com, 3:55 AM (afternoon session), 11:45 AM (evening session); IAAF Radio, 11 AM
Highlights: M 200, M 110h, W High Jump, W 400h, Decathlon Day 2
My thoughts on the fifth day of the Worlds...
The throws have been screwy. Kristian Pars and Gerd Kanter were both undefeated on the season, and neither finished in the top two. Barbora Spotakova has been nearly unbeatable in major competition, but she got beat. The Germans are competing waaay over their heads in the field events. I sure hope Ariane Friedrich comes through for me in the high jump.
I thought Bernard Lagat was the best runner in the 1500, but two little things kept him from winning. He was in great position at the head of the backstretch, but there were too many other runners still in the picture and he got boxed in right before the turn. Even then, he might have had a chance, but Mehdi Baala gave him a shove just before the homestretch that more or less killed his last chance.
Asbel Kiprop may actually have been a better runner, but boy did he run stupid. Darn near last at the bell, he had to go out to lane 3 around the last turn and still got fourth. I'm glad the IAAF fantasy league system's cutoff kept me from picking him up for the 1500 final.
Which brings me to another issue. Kenyans will win many medals with a few golds among them. You can bank on that, year in and year out. But as for predicting which Kenyans...that is always very hard to guess. It's part of the reason they give off the aura of invincibility, even though they're second-fiddle to the Ethiopians at 5k and above.
As for the Caster Semenya rhubarb, I'll refer you to the sober analysis by the Science of Sport guys. I picked her in the fantasy league, but my loyalties end there.
Decathlon? Follow it here. Summary: Leonel Suarez may be in eighth right now, but that don't mean dick when you realize how good a second-day decathlete he is. And Germany's Pascal Behrenbruch, now back in 11th, will give the crowd a thrill when he makes a run at a medal. Again, the German is competing waaay over his head.
Results
Afternoon session: recap / video-on-demand
Evening session recaps: IAAF / World Track / video-on-demand
Deca 100 / Deca long jump / Deca shot / Men's 400 semis / Men's 200 semis / Women's 200 heats / Men's disc / Men's 1500 / Women's 100 hurdles / Women's 800 / Deca high jump / Deca 400
Tomorrow
Schedule / Preview
TV: Versus, 1:30-3:30
Web: UniversalSports.com, 3:55 AM (afternoon session), 11:45 AM (evening session); IAAF Radio, 11 AM
Highlights: M 200, M 110h, W High Jump, W 400h, Decathlon Day 2
My thoughts on the fifth day of the Worlds...
The throws have been screwy. Kristian Pars and Gerd Kanter were both undefeated on the season, and neither finished in the top two. Barbora Spotakova has been nearly unbeatable in major competition, but she got beat. The Germans are competing waaay over their heads in the field events. I sure hope Ariane Friedrich comes through for me in the high jump.
I thought Bernard Lagat was the best runner in the 1500, but two little things kept him from winning. He was in great position at the head of the backstretch, but there were too many other runners still in the picture and he got boxed in right before the turn. Even then, he might have had a chance, but Mehdi Baala gave him a shove just before the homestretch that more or less killed his last chance.
Asbel Kiprop may actually have been a better runner, but boy did he run stupid. Darn near last at the bell, he had to go out to lane 3 around the last turn and still got fourth. I'm glad the IAAF fantasy league system's cutoff kept me from picking him up for the 1500 final.
Which brings me to another issue. Kenyans will win many medals with a few golds among them. You can bank on that, year in and year out. But as for predicting which Kenyans...that is always very hard to guess. It's part of the reason they give off the aura of invincibility, even though they're second-fiddle to the Ethiopians at 5k and above.
As for the Caster Semenya rhubarb, I'll refer you to the sober analysis by the Science of Sport guys. I picked her in the fantasy league, but my loyalties end there.
Decathlon? Follow it here. Summary: Leonel Suarez may be in eighth right now, but that don't mean dick when you realize how good a second-day decathlete he is. And Germany's Pascal Behrenbruch, now back in 11th, will give the crowd a thrill when he makes a run at a medal. Again, the German is competing waaay over his head.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Worlds, Day 1
Day 1 recaps: Let's Run / IAAF
Video-on-demand: Morning session / Afternoon session
Day 2:
Competition schedule
TV schedule: NBC, 2 PM (to be rerun on Versus at 7 & 11 PM); CBC, 4 PM
Web schedule: Universal Sports, 12:05 PM; IAAF radio, 11 AM
Previews: Let's Run / IAAF / Sports Illustrated / ESPN
My thoughts on the first day of the Worlds...
Cantwell came through in the clutch in the shot put while the other Americans choked. Sounds like Beijing all over again, except this time Majewski got topped. Shortly I'll have my world rankings for the shot redone.
The women's 10k did not go according to form, and this should have been apparent right at the bell. Defar usually bolts to the front and immediately puts a hurt on her competition at exactly 400 to go but obviously not this time. At that point I was sure Melkamu was going to win, but down the homestretch Defar slowed, which forced Melkamu to break stride, and that may have been the tinry difference needed for Masai to win. Back with the mortals, it was no surprise that Flanagan wasn't a factor, nor was it surprising to see Yoder-Begley win that "B-race" in a new PR.
Various online discussions have identified some of the differences between US-based broadcasts (meh) and the BBC broadcasts (wow) that Universal Sports uses for its webcasts. I noted a big one yesterday: on the Beeb, the announcers are not the stars. You never see them on screen, nor are post-competition interviews a part of the broadcasts. Yesterday we got three minutes of talking heads before the start of the women's 10k, then two minutes of running before they cut away. Obviously, NBC thinks the announcers are more important than the athletes!
My Day 1 picks in the IAAF fantasy league were Tomasz Majewski and Natalya Dobrynska. The former won silver in the shot, and the latter was not looking good in the heptathlon. But since I saw no one on Day 2 worth picking up who I didn't already have, I stood pat to give Dobrysnka chance. This morning my Russian pick came through in the women's 20k walk...pending dope testing.
UPDATE: New world rankings, men's shot...
1. Christian Cantwell (USA) 234
2. Tomasz Majewski (POL) 208
3. Reese Hoffa (USA) 204
4. Dan Taylor (USA) 130
5. Adam Nelson (USA) 115
6. Ralf Bartels (GER) 101
7. Andrei Mikhnevich (BLR) 89
8. Dylan Armstrong (CAN) 70
9. Pavel Sofyin (RUS) 58
10. Dorian Scott (JAM) 54
Cantwell is a definite #1, with wins at the Worlds and USATF and putting up the year's longest throw. Hoffa has a 4-2 record versus Majewski in 2009, and would have stayed ahead had he won a medal. Bartel's surprise medal moved him way up the charts.
Video-on-demand: Morning session / Afternoon session
Day 2:
Competition schedule
TV schedule: NBC, 2 PM (to be rerun on Versus at 7 & 11 PM); CBC, 4 PM
Web schedule: Universal Sports, 12:05 PM; IAAF radio, 11 AM
Previews: Let's Run / IAAF / Sports Illustrated / ESPN
My thoughts on the first day of the Worlds...
Cantwell came through in the clutch in the shot put while the other Americans choked. Sounds like Beijing all over again, except this time Majewski got topped. Shortly I'll have my world rankings for the shot redone.
The women's 10k did not go according to form, and this should have been apparent right at the bell. Defar usually bolts to the front and immediately puts a hurt on her competition at exactly 400 to go but obviously not this time. At that point I was sure Melkamu was going to win, but down the homestretch Defar slowed, which forced Melkamu to break stride, and that may have been the tinry difference needed for Masai to win. Back with the mortals, it was no surprise that Flanagan wasn't a factor, nor was it surprising to see Yoder-Begley win that "B-race" in a new PR.
Various online discussions have identified some of the differences between US-based broadcasts (meh) and the BBC broadcasts (wow) that Universal Sports uses for its webcasts. I noted a big one yesterday: on the Beeb, the announcers are not the stars. You never see them on screen, nor are post-competition interviews a part of the broadcasts. Yesterday we got three minutes of talking heads before the start of the women's 10k, then two minutes of running before they cut away. Obviously, NBC thinks the announcers are more important than the athletes!
My Day 1 picks in the IAAF fantasy league were Tomasz Majewski and Natalya Dobrynska. The former won silver in the shot, and the latter was not looking good in the heptathlon. But since I saw no one on Day 2 worth picking up who I didn't already have, I stood pat to give Dobrysnka chance. This morning my Russian pick came through in the women's 20k walk...pending dope testing.
UPDATE: New world rankings, men's shot...
1. Christian Cantwell (USA) 234
2. Tomasz Majewski (POL) 208
3. Reese Hoffa (USA) 204
4. Dan Taylor (USA) 130
5. Adam Nelson (USA) 115
6. Ralf Bartels (GER) 101
7. Andrei Mikhnevich (BLR) 89
8. Dylan Armstrong (CAN) 70
9. Pavel Sofyin (RUS) 58
10. Dorian Scott (JAM) 54
Cantwell is a definite #1, with wins at the Worlds and USATF and putting up the year's longest throw. Hoffa has a 4-2 record versus Majewski in 2009, and would have stayed ahead had he won a medal. Bartel's surprise medal moved him way up the charts.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
World Championships Fantasy League
There are three online contests that I know of: Let's Run's prediction contest, USATF's Pick N' Win contest, and the IAAF's Fantasy Athletics.
My other responsibilities are ramping up, so I'm only playing one. The first two are straight pick-em games and not terribly interesting. The IAAF's game includes a bit of strategy and therefore more intriguing.
The rules: You pick 20 athletes--10 men and 10 women--and one team in each of the four relays. You get points for place with bonuses for world and meet records. The twist is that each athlete must be from a different country, and the same for each relay. You can drop an athlete and pick up a new one (forfeiting points already earned in the process), but only one per day.
I cribbed winner picks from Track & Field News and Let's Run and tried to be smart about it. I went with strong favorites from small countries, such as Kristian Pars and Valerie Vili. I went with athletes picked to win two events, such as Kenenisa Bekele and Usain Bolt, figuring they were more or less guaranteed to win at least one. And then I picked athletes from big countries who were favorites to win events held early on in the championships, such as Sanya Richards, figuring I could swap them out for other favorites later on should they fail to win gold.
My other responsibilities are ramping up, so I'm only playing one. The first two are straight pick-em games and not terribly interesting. The IAAF's game includes a bit of strategy and therefore more intriguing.
The rules: You pick 20 athletes--10 men and 10 women--and one team in each of the four relays. You get points for place with bonuses for world and meet records. The twist is that each athlete must be from a different country, and the same for each relay. You can drop an athlete and pick up a new one (forfeiting points already earned in the process), but only one per day.
I cribbed winner picks from Track & Field News and Let's Run and tried to be smart about it. I went with strong favorites from small countries, such as Kristian Pars and Valerie Vili. I went with athletes picked to win two events, such as Kenenisa Bekele and Usain Bolt, figuring they were more or less guaranteed to win at least one. And then I picked athletes from big countries who were favorites to win events held early on in the championships, such as Sanya Richards, figuring I could swap them out for other favorites later on should they fail to win gold.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Fantasy League Thoughts
I finished 28th out of well over 2000 who played USATF's Pick & Win game over the course of the outdoor season. I made a couple of bonehead moves that killed me; had I not picked Tyson Gay in the USATF 100, I would have been second.
EDIT: USATF's early updates were misleading. I finished 26th, and my errors only cost me about ten places.
So what wisdom can I give you? A number of things.
Never pick someone who has a Worlds bye
Who did? Tyson Gay, who dropped out of the 100 after one round. Jeremy Wariner, who ran the 200 and didn't make the final. Bernard Lagat, who opted for the 800 and didn't show up for his semifinal. Kerron Clement, who ran the flat 400. Michelle Perry, who was a no-show for the 100 hurdles finals. The only athletes who didn't take advantage of their byes were Allyson Felix, Brad Walker and Reese Hoffa. Two of those who dropped out before the final--Gay and Perry--I picked to win and it cost me second place.
I looked at Track & Field News' formcharts, saw Gay listed at #1 in the 100, and assumed it meant they thought he was going to run all the rounds. Those guys are generally plugged in and I thought they knew something. Turns out that wasn't the case, which killed me because I knew who were the next three guys in order after Gay. Which brings me to my next point...
The 100 is the easiest event to predict
Absolutely the easiest, so long as you look at the right information. The 100 is raw explosive power applied through highly skilled technique. Athletes must hone that technique through racing, and since the races are always close they can't let up before the finish. The result is that no one can hide what condition they're really in.
If you know where to look, that condition is obvious. Take their race times, use Dr. Jonas Mureika's online calculator to factor out the effects of wind and altitude, and it's pretty much right on the ball. Now, not all winds are equal; a crosswind measured with an aiding vector of 2.0 m/s is far different from a pure tailwind with the same aiding vector, and winds can be different at the start than at the finish. Humidity and temperature also play a small role in sprint times. But if you look at an athlete's three or four most recent races, these minor inconsistencies even out and you can pretty much tell how they're going to line up.
This is why I wanted nothing to do with Walter Dix. While his best single mark of the year was much superior to that of anyone in the meet (save Gay), it was way back in early April. His last outing before USATF saw him lose to Trell Kimmons and Bernard Williams in times that just didn't look very good. He was too much of an unknown quantity.
In the men's 100, if Gay was removed from the equation, the best series of times had been put up by Mike Rodgers and Darvis Patton, followed by Rae Edwards. I thought Patton was going to be hurt a little by his recent paternity-related short layoff. I was right on.
In the women's 100, I thought Carmelita Jeter was way better than everyone else, with Muna Lee next and Alexandria Anderson after her. I did not think Lauryn Williams was going to be a factor, despite her big-meet reputation. Jeter made a mistake early in the race and caught a cramp late but still managed to hold on for the win. And the wind/altitude correction exposes why Williams is such a big-meet runner: she and Lee were the only finalists who ran up to their season-best standard. Which brings me to my next point...
Do your homework
I saw that Maggie Vessey won the Prefontaine 800 and ran well at the Reebok Grand Prix, decided she was on a definite upswing, and picked her to win. But I neglected to look at how she runs, and as soon as I saw a Let's Run analysis of her semifinal I knew I was screwed.
She takes the Yuriy Borzakovskiy approach to the 800, namely stay way back on the first lap and then eat 'em up on the second. This works extremely well under certain circumstances, but not all, and when it fails it does so miserably. Borza still hasn't figured out when to moderate his tactics.
Athletes who run like this plan on even splits for the two laps. This works if the pace goes out crazy-fast and the athletes tie up. Perfect examples include the '72 and '88 men's Olympic final, and the Prefontaine Classic women's race this year went just like that. Vessey ran well back and ran pretty much even pace the whole way, and it was easy pickings to pass a strung-out field.
Today, the pace went out at 59.x and Vessey probably ran 63.x, by which time she'd already thrown away the race. No one was going to have a grizzly bear jump on their back, she was going to have to run negative splits, and go way wide to pass a crowd. So she ended up fourth.
Note that Nick Symmonds used to run this way, but has matured by realizing the situations where it doesn't work. Now he only trails if the pace is too aggressive, and today he started working his way up from the back after only 100 meters.
EDIT: USATF's early updates were misleading. I finished 26th, and my errors only cost me about ten places.
So what wisdom can I give you? A number of things.
Never pick someone who has a Worlds bye
Who did? Tyson Gay, who dropped out of the 100 after one round. Jeremy Wariner, who ran the 200 and didn't make the final. Bernard Lagat, who opted for the 800 and didn't show up for his semifinal. Kerron Clement, who ran the flat 400. Michelle Perry, who was a no-show for the 100 hurdles finals. The only athletes who didn't take advantage of their byes were Allyson Felix, Brad Walker and Reese Hoffa. Two of those who dropped out before the final--Gay and Perry--I picked to win and it cost me second place.
I looked at Track & Field News' formcharts, saw Gay listed at #1 in the 100, and assumed it meant they thought he was going to run all the rounds. Those guys are generally plugged in and I thought they knew something. Turns out that wasn't the case, which killed me because I knew who were the next three guys in order after Gay. Which brings me to my next point...
The 100 is the easiest event to predict
Absolutely the easiest, so long as you look at the right information. The 100 is raw explosive power applied through highly skilled technique. Athletes must hone that technique through racing, and since the races are always close they can't let up before the finish. The result is that no one can hide what condition they're really in.
If you know where to look, that condition is obvious. Take their race times, use Dr. Jonas Mureika's online calculator to factor out the effects of wind and altitude, and it's pretty much right on the ball. Now, not all winds are equal; a crosswind measured with an aiding vector of 2.0 m/s is far different from a pure tailwind with the same aiding vector, and winds can be different at the start than at the finish. Humidity and temperature also play a small role in sprint times. But if you look at an athlete's three or four most recent races, these minor inconsistencies even out and you can pretty much tell how they're going to line up.
This is why I wanted nothing to do with Walter Dix. While his best single mark of the year was much superior to that of anyone in the meet (save Gay), it was way back in early April. His last outing before USATF saw him lose to Trell Kimmons and Bernard Williams in times that just didn't look very good. He was too much of an unknown quantity.
In the men's 100, if Gay was removed from the equation, the best series of times had been put up by Mike Rodgers and Darvis Patton, followed by Rae Edwards. I thought Patton was going to be hurt a little by his recent paternity-related short layoff. I was right on.
In the women's 100, I thought Carmelita Jeter was way better than everyone else, with Muna Lee next and Alexandria Anderson after her. I did not think Lauryn Williams was going to be a factor, despite her big-meet reputation. Jeter made a mistake early in the race and caught a cramp late but still managed to hold on for the win. And the wind/altitude correction exposes why Williams is such a big-meet runner: she and Lee were the only finalists who ran up to their season-best standard. Which brings me to my next point...
Do your homework
I saw that Maggie Vessey won the Prefontaine 800 and ran well at the Reebok Grand Prix, decided she was on a definite upswing, and picked her to win. But I neglected to look at how she runs, and as soon as I saw a Let's Run analysis of her semifinal I knew I was screwed.
She takes the Yuriy Borzakovskiy approach to the 800, namely stay way back on the first lap and then eat 'em up on the second. This works extremely well under certain circumstances, but not all, and when it fails it does so miserably. Borza still hasn't figured out when to moderate his tactics.
Athletes who run like this plan on even splits for the two laps. This works if the pace goes out crazy-fast and the athletes tie up. Perfect examples include the '72 and '88 men's Olympic final, and the Prefontaine Classic women's race this year went just like that. Vessey ran well back and ran pretty much even pace the whole way, and it was easy pickings to pass a strung-out field.
Today, the pace went out at 59.x and Vessey probably ran 63.x, by which time she'd already thrown away the race. No one was going to have a grizzly bear jump on their back, she was going to have to run negative splits, and go way wide to pass a crowd. So she ended up fourth.
Note that Nick Symmonds used to run this way, but has matured by realizing the situations where it doesn't work. Now he only trails if the pace is too aggressive, and today he started working his way up from the back after only 100 meters.
Friday, June 26, 2009
USA Championships Preview -- Weekend
I'm going to be a bit busy this weekend, and I wanted to get my predictions out there now.
Saturday
Men's 20k Walk, 10 AM EDT
Defending champ: Kevin Eastler
T&FN pick: Patrick Stroupe
My pick: ditto
Analysis: This is like the Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress awards at the Oscars, in that no one cares who wins.
Men's Pole Vault, 5:55 PM
Defending champ: Derek Miles
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: Jeremy Scott
Analysis: Derek Miles and Brad Walker have been a bit too inconsistent for my tastes. Scott might not win, but he won't bomb either.
Men's Hammer Throw, 6:25 PM
Defending champ: AG Kruger
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Kruger has dominated this event in the US for several years.
Men's Long Jump, 7:20 PM
Defending champ: Trevell Quinley
T&FN pick: Dwight Phillips
My pick: ditto
Analysis: The best jumper almost always wins in this event, and Phillips is head and shoulders above the rest.
Women's Javelin Throw, 7:30 PM
Defending champ: Kara Patterson
T&FN pick: Kim Kreiner
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Even coming off injury, she's the USA's best.
Women's 400m Hurdles, 8:15 PM (live on ESPN)
Defending champ: Tiffany Williams
T&FN pick: Lashinda Demus
My pick: Sheena Tosta
Analysis: I see this as a toss-up between Tosta and Demus.
Men's Steeplechase, 8:40 PM (live on ESPN)
Defending champ: Anthony Famiglietti
T&FN pick: Josh McAdams
My pick: ditto
Analysis: This is a pretty weak event.
Women's 400 meters, 8:54 PM (live on ESPN)
Defending champ: Sanya Richards
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: As long as her Behcet's disease doesn't act up, this will be an easy win for Richards.
Men's 400 meters, 9:02 PM (live on ESPN)
Defending champ: LaShawn Merritt
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: No one can beat Merritt right now, not even Wariner.
Women's 1500 meters, 9:11 PM (live on ESPN)
Defending champ: Shannon Rowbury
T&FN pick: Christin Wurth-Thomas
My pick: Anna Willard
Analysis: The USA is four-deep in great milers, and one of them (Jenny Barringer) is only doing the steeple. The other three are listed above. You could make a case for any of them to win, but Willard's strong showings in both the steeple and 800 make me think she has more tools to work with than the others.
Men's 110m Hurdles, 9:23 PM (live on ESPN)
Defending champ: David Oliver
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: Terrence Trammell
Analysis: Trammell is having his best season in a few years and always seems to come up big at the national championships. It is most likely to be a tight race between him and Oliver.
SUNDAY
Women's 20k Walk, 11 AM EDT
Defending champ: Joanne Dow
T&FN pick: Theresa Vaill
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Who cares?
Women's Heptathlon
Defending champ: Hyleas Fountain
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: It shouldn't be close.
Women's Pole Vault, 2:30 PM
Defending champ: Jenn Stuczynski
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Probably the strongest favorite in the whole meet.
Men's High Jump, 2:45 PM
Defending champ: Jesse Williams
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: On paper, at least, this is a no-brainer.
Women's Hammer Throw, 3:10 PM
Defending champ: Jessica Cosby
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: She's thrown further and more consistently than all the others.
Women's Long Jump, 3:30 PM
Defending champ: Brittney Reese
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: She's by far the best women's long jumper in the USA.
Men's Shot Put, 3:35 PM
Defending champ: Reese Hoffa
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Hoffa had an average indoor season but has come on strong outdoors, while Cantwell has done the opposite.
Men's 400m Hurdles, 4:05 PM (live on NBC)
Defending champ: Bershawn Jackson
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: With a Worlds bye, Kerron Clement is running the flat 400 instead. That makes this pick a whole lot easier, because Clement was the only one I thought had any chance at Jackson.
Women's Steeplechase, 4:14 PM (live on NBC)
Defending champ: Anna Willard
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: Jenny Barringer
Analysis: This should be a ding-dong battle between Willard and Barringer and both will break the American Record. Willard will have the 1500 on her legs, so I went with Barringer.
Women's 800 meters, 4:44 PM (live on NBC)
Defending champ: Hazel Clark
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: Maggie Vessey
Analysis: This is not a strong event for the USA, which complicates an already unpredictable event. Clark isn't as reliable as her sister was, and Vessey has run two good races in a row.
Men's 800 meters, 4:53 PM (live on NBC)
Defending champ: Nick Symmonds
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Symmonds has improved each year, and is racing on his home track. But the 800 is the least predictable of all running events, so anything can happen.
Women's 100m Hurdles, 5:22 PM (live on NBC)
Defending champ: Lolo Jones
T&FN pick: Dawn Harper
My pick: Michelle Perry
Analysis: Damu Cherry has had the strongest season so far, but Perry has been righting her ship since a severe injury last year. She beat Cherry at the Prefontaine Classic and I think things are coming together for her now and should win.
Men's 1500 meters, 5:31 PM (live on NBC)
Defending champ: Bernard Lagat
T&FN pick: Leonel Manzano
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Lagat has a bye to the World Championships and so is not racing the 1500. Manzano's recent form is better than all the others.
Men's 200 meters, 5:43 PM (live on NBC)
Defending champ: Walter Dix
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: Wallace Spearmon
Analysis: Dix hasn't raced well recently, and he'll have six rounds on his legs by the 200 final. Spearmon has had some good races this year and pretty much no one else in the field has.
Women's 200 meters, 5:52 PM (live on NBC)
Defending champ: Allyson Felix
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: This shouldn't be close.
Saturday
Men's 20k Walk, 10 AM EDT
Defending champ: Kevin Eastler
T&FN pick: Patrick Stroupe
My pick: ditto
Analysis: This is like the Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress awards at the Oscars, in that no one cares who wins.
Men's Pole Vault, 5:55 PM
Defending champ: Derek Miles
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: Jeremy Scott
Analysis: Derek Miles and Brad Walker have been a bit too inconsistent for my tastes. Scott might not win, but he won't bomb either.
Men's Hammer Throw, 6:25 PM
Defending champ: AG Kruger
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Kruger has dominated this event in the US for several years.
Men's Long Jump, 7:20 PM
Defending champ: Trevell Quinley
T&FN pick: Dwight Phillips
My pick: ditto
Analysis: The best jumper almost always wins in this event, and Phillips is head and shoulders above the rest.
Women's Javelin Throw, 7:30 PM
Defending champ: Kara Patterson
T&FN pick: Kim Kreiner
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Even coming off injury, she's the USA's best.
Women's 400m Hurdles, 8:15 PM (live on ESPN)
Defending champ: Tiffany Williams
T&FN pick: Lashinda Demus
My pick: Sheena Tosta
Analysis: I see this as a toss-up between Tosta and Demus.
Men's Steeplechase, 8:40 PM (live on ESPN)
Defending champ: Anthony Famiglietti
T&FN pick: Josh McAdams
My pick: ditto
Analysis: This is a pretty weak event.
Women's 400 meters, 8:54 PM (live on ESPN)
Defending champ: Sanya Richards
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: As long as her Behcet's disease doesn't act up, this will be an easy win for Richards.
Men's 400 meters, 9:02 PM (live on ESPN)
Defending champ: LaShawn Merritt
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: No one can beat Merritt right now, not even Wariner.
Women's 1500 meters, 9:11 PM (live on ESPN)
Defending champ: Shannon Rowbury
T&FN pick: Christin Wurth-Thomas
My pick: Anna Willard
Analysis: The USA is four-deep in great milers, and one of them (Jenny Barringer) is only doing the steeple. The other three are listed above. You could make a case for any of them to win, but Willard's strong showings in both the steeple and 800 make me think she has more tools to work with than the others.
Men's 110m Hurdles, 9:23 PM (live on ESPN)
Defending champ: David Oliver
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: Terrence Trammell
Analysis: Trammell is having his best season in a few years and always seems to come up big at the national championships. It is most likely to be a tight race between him and Oliver.
SUNDAY
Women's 20k Walk, 11 AM EDT
Defending champ: Joanne Dow
T&FN pick: Theresa Vaill
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Who cares?
Women's Heptathlon
Defending champ: Hyleas Fountain
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: It shouldn't be close.
Women's Pole Vault, 2:30 PM
Defending champ: Jenn Stuczynski
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Probably the strongest favorite in the whole meet.
Men's High Jump, 2:45 PM
Defending champ: Jesse Williams
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: On paper, at least, this is a no-brainer.
Women's Hammer Throw, 3:10 PM
Defending champ: Jessica Cosby
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: She's thrown further and more consistently than all the others.
Women's Long Jump, 3:30 PM
Defending champ: Brittney Reese
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: She's by far the best women's long jumper in the USA.
Men's Shot Put, 3:35 PM
Defending champ: Reese Hoffa
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Hoffa had an average indoor season but has come on strong outdoors, while Cantwell has done the opposite.
Men's 400m Hurdles, 4:05 PM (live on NBC)
Defending champ: Bershawn Jackson
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: With a Worlds bye, Kerron Clement is running the flat 400 instead. That makes this pick a whole lot easier, because Clement was the only one I thought had any chance at Jackson.
Women's Steeplechase, 4:14 PM (live on NBC)
Defending champ: Anna Willard
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: Jenny Barringer
Analysis: This should be a ding-dong battle between Willard and Barringer and both will break the American Record. Willard will have the 1500 on her legs, so I went with Barringer.
Women's 800 meters, 4:44 PM (live on NBC)
Defending champ: Hazel Clark
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: Maggie Vessey
Analysis: This is not a strong event for the USA, which complicates an already unpredictable event. Clark isn't as reliable as her sister was, and Vessey has run two good races in a row.
Men's 800 meters, 4:53 PM (live on NBC)
Defending champ: Nick Symmonds
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Symmonds has improved each year, and is racing on his home track. But the 800 is the least predictable of all running events, so anything can happen.
Women's 100m Hurdles, 5:22 PM (live on NBC)
Defending champ: Lolo Jones
T&FN pick: Dawn Harper
My pick: Michelle Perry
Analysis: Damu Cherry has had the strongest season so far, but Perry has been righting her ship since a severe injury last year. She beat Cherry at the Prefontaine Classic and I think things are coming together for her now and should win.
Men's 1500 meters, 5:31 PM (live on NBC)
Defending champ: Bernard Lagat
T&FN pick: Leonel Manzano
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Lagat has a bye to the World Championships and so is not racing the 1500. Manzano's recent form is better than all the others.
Men's 200 meters, 5:43 PM (live on NBC)
Defending champ: Walter Dix
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: Wallace Spearmon
Analysis: Dix hasn't raced well recently, and he'll have six rounds on his legs by the 200 final. Spearmon has had some good races this year and pretty much no one else in the field has.
Women's 200 meters, 5:52 PM (live on NBC)
Defending champ: Allyson Felix
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: This shouldn't be close.
Pick N' Win Update
I just want to let everyone know that I picked Amy Yoder-Begley to win in last night's USATF 10k. And she did, which even the Let's Run guys thought wasn't possible at all.
So far, there have been six finals. I picked five winners and a second. I wonder how I'm going to spend that $2000 VISA gift card...
So far, there have been six finals. I picked five winners and a second. I wonder how I'm going to spend that $2000 VISA gift card...
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
USA Championships Preview - Day Two
Friday's finals...
Coverage will be live on ESPN from 8 to 10 PM.
Women's Triple Jump, 7:50 PM EDT
Defending champion: Shani Marks
T&FN pick: Erica McLain
My pick: Yvette Lewis
Analysis: I'm picking Lewis for two reasons. She has the best American jump of the year after wind and altitude are factored in, and she beat McLain in the process of making it.
Women's Shot Put, 8:15 PM
Defending champion: Michelle Carter
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: Liz Wanless
Analysis: Wanless has been consistent save the Reebok Grand Prix, and recently put up the yearly American leader.
Men's Discus Throw, 9:40 PM
Defending champion: Ian Waltz
T&FN pick: Jarred Rome
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Consistently top American this year.
Women's 100 meters, 9:40 PM (live on ESPN)
Defending champion: Muna Lee
T&FN pick: Carmelita Jeter
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Jeter is not only the best sprinter in the USA right now, but the best in the world.
Men's 100 meters, 9:50 PM (live on ESPN)
Defending champion: Tyson Gay
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: The only question is whether Gay will run all the rounds or merely fill the requirements for getting his Worlds bye and run the heats only. If he's up for the whole thing, and it sounds like he is, he's essentially a lock.
Women's 5000 meters, 10:50 PM
Defending champion: Kara Goucher
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Goucher is head and shoulders above all the other runners entered in this race.
Men's 5000 meters, 11:15 PM
Defending champion: Bernard Lagat
T&FN pick: Matt Tegenkamp
My pick: diito
Analysis: I like how both Solinsky and Teg ran at the Prefontaine Classic; I think Tegenkamp is a more solid pick. But you can't go too far wrong with either one.
Coverage will be live on ESPN from 8 to 10 PM.
Women's Triple Jump, 7:50 PM EDT
Defending champion: Shani Marks
T&FN pick: Erica McLain
My pick: Yvette Lewis
Analysis: I'm picking Lewis for two reasons. She has the best American jump of the year after wind and altitude are factored in, and she beat McLain in the process of making it.
Women's Shot Put, 8:15 PM
Defending champion: Michelle Carter
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: Liz Wanless
Analysis: Wanless has been consistent save the Reebok Grand Prix, and recently put up the yearly American leader.
Men's Discus Throw, 9:40 PM
Defending champion: Ian Waltz
T&FN pick: Jarred Rome
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Consistently top American this year.
Women's 100 meters, 9:40 PM (live on ESPN)
Defending champion: Muna Lee
T&FN pick: Carmelita Jeter
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Jeter is not only the best sprinter in the USA right now, but the best in the world.
Men's 100 meters, 9:50 PM (live on ESPN)
Defending champion: Tyson Gay
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: The only question is whether Gay will run all the rounds or merely fill the requirements for getting his Worlds bye and run the heats only. If he's up for the whole thing, and it sounds like he is, he's essentially a lock.
Women's 5000 meters, 10:50 PM
Defending champion: Kara Goucher
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Goucher is head and shoulders above all the other runners entered in this race.
Men's 5000 meters, 11:15 PM
Defending champion: Bernard Lagat
T&FN pick: Matt Tegenkamp
My pick: diito
Analysis: I like how both Solinsky and Teg ran at the Prefontaine Classic; I think Tegenkamp is a more solid pick. But you can't go too far wrong with either one.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
USA Championships Preview - Day One
Over the next few days I'll preview the USA Track & Field Championships by filling you in on my choices for USATF's online fantasy league. I'm currently 35th out of more than 2000, so I think my opinion may carry some weight. Here goes with Thursday's final events.
Late update: Let's Run's Day 1 previews for men and women are up.
Men's Javelin, 6:30 PM EDT
Defending champ: Bobby Smith
T&FN pick: Mike Hazle
My pick: ditto
Analysis: The long throws are a bit outside the areas of my expertise. Further complicating the matter is the fact that none of these throwers are competitive on the international level. So I see no reason to argue with the Mountain View gang.
Women's High Jump, 8 PM
Defending champ: Chaunté Howard
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Howard's major competition will come from Destinee Hooker, but for Hooker to win she must be at her best at the same time that Howard has an average day or worse. Not likely.
Men's Triple Jump, 8:15 PM
Defending champ: Aarik Wilson
T&FN pick: Brandon Roulhac
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Roulhac has been consistently the best US triple jumper in 2009, the only American who can claim to belong in the top 20 or so in the world.
Women's Discus, 6:45 PM
Defending champ: Aretha Thurmond
T&FN pick: Stefanie Brown-Trafton
My pick: ditto
Analysis: She's the defending Olympic champion and has the world's leading throw by a meter and a half.
Women's 10,000 meters, 10:50 PM
Defending champ: Shalane Flanagan
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: Amy Yoder-Begley
Analysis: My pick is based on trying to score points in USATF's online contest, and when in doubt you must follow the "do no harm" strategy. I don't really think Begley will beat Flanagan, but Flan has been oddly inconsistent this year and could possibly lay an egg. Begley is solid as a rock for second at worst.
Men's 10,000 meters, 11:30 PM
Defending champ: Abdi Abdirahman
T&FN pick: Galen Rupp
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Rupp has had a long season so far, but that's the only thing he's got going against him. He's proven he can win under any style of racing, and there are sober observers speculating he could run sub-27:00 right now.
Late update: Let's Run's Day 1 previews for men and women are up.
Men's Javelin, 6:30 PM EDT
Defending champ: Bobby Smith
T&FN pick: Mike Hazle
My pick: ditto
Analysis: The long throws are a bit outside the areas of my expertise. Further complicating the matter is the fact that none of these throwers are competitive on the international level. So I see no reason to argue with the Mountain View gang.
Women's High Jump, 8 PM
Defending champ: Chaunté Howard
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Howard's major competition will come from Destinee Hooker, but for Hooker to win she must be at her best at the same time that Howard has an average day or worse. Not likely.
Men's Triple Jump, 8:15 PM
Defending champ: Aarik Wilson
T&FN pick: Brandon Roulhac
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Roulhac has been consistently the best US triple jumper in 2009, the only American who can claim to belong in the top 20 or so in the world.
Women's Discus, 6:45 PM
Defending champ: Aretha Thurmond
T&FN pick: Stefanie Brown-Trafton
My pick: ditto
Analysis: She's the defending Olympic champion and has the world's leading throw by a meter and a half.
Women's 10,000 meters, 10:50 PM
Defending champ: Shalane Flanagan
T&FN pick: ditto
My pick: Amy Yoder-Begley
Analysis: My pick is based on trying to score points in USATF's online contest, and when in doubt you must follow the "do no harm" strategy. I don't really think Begley will beat Flanagan, but Flan has been oddly inconsistent this year and could possibly lay an egg. Begley is solid as a rock for second at worst.
Men's 10,000 meters, 11:30 PM
Defending champ: Abdi Abdirahman
T&FN pick: Galen Rupp
My pick: ditto
Analysis: Rupp has had a long season so far, but that's the only thing he's got going against him. He's proven he can win under any style of racing, and there are sober observers speculating he could run sub-27:00 right now.
Friday, June 05, 2009
Fantasy League Outlook
I don't know if my advice should be followed, considering the thumping I took in the Pick N' Win game last week. On the other hand, who else is handing out advice?
Under each event is the start list and the percent of fantasy players who picked them (as of Friday morning).
MEN
100m
Walter Dix, 56%
Asafa Powell, 22%
Travis Padgett, 13%
Churandy Martina, 4%
Richard Thompson, 2%
Michael Frater, 1%
Jaysuma Ndure, 0%
Marc Burns, 0%
Analysis: Dix and Martina are the two to watch, and I'd go with the former.
Nutrilite 300m
LaShawn Merritt, 75%
Wallace Spearmon, 14%
Xavier Carter, 8%
Renny Quow, 1%
David Neville, 1%
Tyler Christopher, 0%
Darold Williamson, 0%
Analysis: Merritt might be better at this distance than he is at the 400. Barring injury or illness he cannot be beaten.
Nike 800m
Nick Symmonds, 51%
Khadevis Robinson, 25%
Alfred Yego, 8%
Yuriy Borzakovskiy, 6%
Boaz Lalang, 3%
Gary Reed, 2%
Ahmad Ismail, 2%
Matt Scherer, 1%
Christian Smith, 1%
Elijah Greer, 1%
Analysis: Yego is the '07 World champ and '08 Olympic bronze medalist. It would be hard to go too wrong with him.
Bowerman Mile
Leonel Manzano, 31%
Asbel Kiprop, 17%
Alan Webb, 16%
Lopez Lomong, 13%
Haron Keitany, 7%
Nicholas Kemboi, 3%
Nate Brannen, 3%
Shedrack Korir, 3%
Henok Legesse, 2%
Peter Vanderwesthuizen, 1%
Josephat Kithii, 1%
Will Leer, 1%
Jackson Kivuna, 1%
Moise Joseph, 1%
Evan Jager, 0%
Belal Mansour, 0%
Analysis: Last month in Doha, Asbel Kiprop ran 1:43 and Keitany ran 3:30. The race will come down to those two, and I'm going with Kiprop.
Steeplechase
Paul Koech, 38%
Ezekiel Kemboi, 25%
Mahiedine Mekhissi-Benabbad, 8%
Josh McAdams, 7%
Steve Slattery, 7%
Ben Bruce, 4%
Brian Olinger, 2%
Billy Nelson, 2%
Luke Watson, 2%
Tom Brooks, 2%
Kyle Alcorn, 1%
Roba Gary, 1%
Dan Huling, 1%
Analysis: Koech and Kemboi are head and shoulders above the rest of the world right now. Koech was beaten by Kemboi in Doha, who then started talking about attacking the world record. I would not be surprised if such an attempt were made on Sunday and I'm going with Kemboi.
3000m
Bernard Lagat, 77%
Saif Shaheen, 6%
Sileshi Sihine, 5%
Alistair Cragg, 3%
Matt Tegenkamp, 2%
Dejen Gebremeskel, 1%
Moses Masai, 1%
Jonathan Riley, 1%
Chris Solinsky, 1%
Abreham Feleke, 1%
Leonard Komon, 1%
Matthew Kisorio, 1%
Steve Sherer, 0%
Brent Vaughn, 0%
Juan Luis Barrios, 0%
Analysis: Lagat has run well in his last two meets, but Sihine and Shaheen are a dangerous runners. I'm picking Lagat in an attempt to minimize the possible downside since we know how he's running right now, but the others are coming off layoffs.
400m Hurdles
Kerron Clement, 45%
Bershawn Jackson, 31%
Angelo Taylor, 16%
Michael Tinsley, 2%
Isa Phillips, 2%
James Carter, 2%
Kenneth Ferguson, 1%
Markino Buckley, 0%
Analysis: Clement is probably the best hurdler, and he's become more consistent over the years, but he's still a bit of a crapshoot. If you're jumpy about taking him (I'm not), Phillips is your best bet.
High Jump
Jesse Williams, 29%
Andrey Silnov, 14%
Jamie Nieto, 12%
Andra Manson, 11%
Ivan Ukhov, 10%
Germaine Mason, 9%
Donald Thomas, 8%
Dustin Jonas, 6%
Analysis: The world's top three are all here, but Williams is competing at home. Jet lag alone gives him an advantage over the Russians, and Manson has been inexplicably average lately. Take Williams.
Pole Vault
Derek Miles, 47%
Tim Mack, 18%
Evgenyi Lukyanenko, 13%
Jeremy Scott, 13%
Jacob Pauli, 3%
Giovanni Lanaro, 3%
Daichi Sawano, 2%
Alhaji Jeng, 1%
Analysis: Miles and Lukyanenko are probably the favorites, and I'll give the nod to Miles.
EDIT: Lukyanenko is a scratch.
Long Jump
Dwight Phillips, 55%
Irving Saladino, 24%
Brian Johnson, 5%
Miguel Pate, 4%
Fabrice Lapierre, 4%
Trevell Quinley, 4%
Matthew Turner, 3%
Yayah Berrabah, 1%
Analysis: Saladino just beat Phillips in Holland on Monday. The Panamanian always finds a way to win.
Visa Shot Put
Reese Hoffa, 42%
Christian Cantwell, 23%
Adam Nelson, 20%
Dan Taylor, 8%
Tomasz Majewski, 2%
Andrei Mikhnevich, 2%
Dorian Scott, 1%
Dylan Armstrong, 1%
Analysis: This is a better field than the Olympic final last year. Taylor has had the hot hand as of late and is the world leader and I'd have to say is the favorite.
WOMEN
Visa 100m
Carmelita Jeter, 47%
Lauryn Williams, 13%
Kerron Stewart, 12%
Muna Lee, 11%
Shelly-Ann Fraser, 6%
Marshevet Hooker, 6%
Torri Edwards, 5%
Analysis: So should you go with the most dominant sprinter (Jeter) or the defending Olympic champ (Fraser)? The 100 is all about what you've done lately. Take Jeter.
Nutrilite 400m
Sanya Richards, 81%
Natasha Hastings, 8%
Shericka Williams, 6%
Novlene Williams, 2%
Melanie Walker, 2%
Amantle Montsho, 1%
Anastasia Kapachinskaya, 0%
Analysis: Unless Richards is ill (a distinct possibility), she should win. Shericka Williams is your backup pick.
800m
Pamela Jelimo, 37%
Hazel Clark, 30%
Kenia Sinclair, 10%
Janeth Jepkosgei, 10%
Alysia Johnson, 6%
Tatyana Andrianova, 4%
Jemma Simpson, 3%
Jesse Carlin, 1%
Analysis: Interesting. Jelimo was untouchable last year but recently in Rabat she was ordinary. Since I don't think you can change your form in the middle distances quickly, I'm taking Jepkosgei, who has been consistently tough for several years.
Nike 1500m
Christin Wurth-Thomas, 22%
Shalane Flanagan, 17%
Anna Willard, 16%
Gelete Burka, 12%
Shannon Rowbury, 11%
Nancy Lagat, 7%
Jenny Barringer, 4%
Shayne Culpepper, 3%
Treniere Clement, 3%
Meskerem Assefa, 2%
Nikeya Green, 1%
Erin Donohue, 1%
Anna Alminova, 1%
Nuria Fernandez, 1%
Analysis: This is a great field. You could make an argument for any of eight athletes to win. Burka ran extremely well in Holland on Monday with a 3:58 which puts her at the head of the list. But Alminova's indoor season showed she is capable of running just as well.
2000m
Kara Goucher, 42%
Sally Kipyego, 14%
Maryam Jamal, 13%
Linet Masai, 8%
Vivian Cheruiyot, 7%
Sara Hall, 6%
Jen Rhines, 3%
Amy Yoder-Begley, 2%
Pauline Korikwiang, 2%
Lauren Hagans, 2%
Sara Vaughn, 1%
Ariana Lambie, 1%
Marina Muncan, 0%
Analysis: I don't think anyone here can beat Jamal.
100m Hurdles
Dawn Harper, 38%
Priscilla Lopes-Schliep, 13%
Damu Cherry, 12%
Michelle Perry, 11%
Hyleas Fountain, 8%
Perdita Felicien, 7%
Vonette Dixon, 5%
Virginia Powell, 4%
Brigitte Foster-Hylton, 2%
Analysis: I think Lopes-Schliep is the best hurdler in the race.
Long Jump
Brittney Reese, 28%
Hyleas Fountain, 20%
Grace Upshaw, 18%
Brianna Glenn, 9%
Tianna Madison, 7%
Yelena Sokolova, 6%
Jovanee Jarrett, 5%
Funmilayo Jimoh, 4%
Akiba McKinney, 2%
Ksenija Balta, 1%
Tabia Charles, 1%
Analysis: Sokolova is no pushover, but Reese bombed one big jump after another all through May. She should win.
Discus
Stephanie Brown Trafton, 55%
Suzy Powell Roos, 21%
Annie Hess, 6%
Aretha Thurmond, 6%
Gia Lewis, 5%
Summer Pierson, 4%
Becky Breisch, 2%
Lucy Cridland, 1%
Analysis: In the absence of any foreigners, Brown Trafton is almost a lock.
Hammer
Oksana Menkova, 33%
Amber Campbell, 16%
Jessica Cosby, 13%
Betty Heidler, 11%
Britney Henry, 10%
Loree Smith, 6%
Darya Pchelnick, 5%
Sultana Frizell, 5%
Analysis: This will be the season opener for Menkova, the Olympic champion. This is probably the deepest competition of the year so far, but it's hard to pick against Menkova.
Under each event is the start list and the percent of fantasy players who picked them (as of Friday morning).
MEN
100m
Walter Dix, 56%
Asafa Powell, 22%
Travis Padgett, 13%
Churandy Martina, 4%
Richard Thompson, 2%
Michael Frater, 1%
Jaysuma Ndure, 0%
Marc Burns, 0%
Analysis: Dix and Martina are the two to watch, and I'd go with the former.
Nutrilite 300m
LaShawn Merritt, 75%
Wallace Spearmon, 14%
Xavier Carter, 8%
Renny Quow, 1%
David Neville, 1%
Tyler Christopher, 0%
Darold Williamson, 0%
Analysis: Merritt might be better at this distance than he is at the 400. Barring injury or illness he cannot be beaten.
Nike 800m
Nick Symmonds, 51%
Khadevis Robinson, 25%
Alfred Yego, 8%
Yuriy Borzakovskiy, 6%
Boaz Lalang, 3%
Gary Reed, 2%
Ahmad Ismail, 2%
Matt Scherer, 1%
Christian Smith, 1%
Elijah Greer, 1%
Analysis: Yego is the '07 World champ and '08 Olympic bronze medalist. It would be hard to go too wrong with him.
Bowerman Mile
Leonel Manzano, 31%
Asbel Kiprop, 17%
Alan Webb, 16%
Lopez Lomong, 13%
Haron Keitany, 7%
Nicholas Kemboi, 3%
Nate Brannen, 3%
Shedrack Korir, 3%
Henok Legesse, 2%
Peter Vanderwesthuizen, 1%
Josephat Kithii, 1%
Will Leer, 1%
Jackson Kivuna, 1%
Moise Joseph, 1%
Evan Jager, 0%
Belal Mansour, 0%
Analysis: Last month in Doha, Asbel Kiprop ran 1:43 and Keitany ran 3:30. The race will come down to those two, and I'm going with Kiprop.
Steeplechase
Paul Koech, 38%
Ezekiel Kemboi, 25%
Mahiedine Mekhissi-Benabbad, 8%
Josh McAdams, 7%
Steve Slattery, 7%
Ben Bruce, 4%
Brian Olinger, 2%
Billy Nelson, 2%
Luke Watson, 2%
Tom Brooks, 2%
Kyle Alcorn, 1%
Roba Gary, 1%
Dan Huling, 1%
Analysis: Koech and Kemboi are head and shoulders above the rest of the world right now. Koech was beaten by Kemboi in Doha, who then started talking about attacking the world record. I would not be surprised if such an attempt were made on Sunday and I'm going with Kemboi.
3000m
Bernard Lagat, 77%
Saif Shaheen, 6%
Sileshi Sihine, 5%
Alistair Cragg, 3%
Matt Tegenkamp, 2%
Dejen Gebremeskel, 1%
Moses Masai, 1%
Jonathan Riley, 1%
Chris Solinsky, 1%
Abreham Feleke, 1%
Leonard Komon, 1%
Matthew Kisorio, 1%
Steve Sherer, 0%
Brent Vaughn, 0%
Juan Luis Barrios, 0%
Analysis: Lagat has run well in his last two meets, but Sihine and Shaheen are a dangerous runners. I'm picking Lagat in an attempt to minimize the possible downside since we know how he's running right now, but the others are coming off layoffs.
400m Hurdles
Kerron Clement, 45%
Bershawn Jackson, 31%
Angelo Taylor, 16%
Michael Tinsley, 2%
Isa Phillips, 2%
James Carter, 2%
Kenneth Ferguson, 1%
Markino Buckley, 0%
Analysis: Clement is probably the best hurdler, and he's become more consistent over the years, but he's still a bit of a crapshoot. If you're jumpy about taking him (I'm not), Phillips is your best bet.
High Jump
Jesse Williams, 29%
Andrey Silnov, 14%
Jamie Nieto, 12%
Andra Manson, 11%
Ivan Ukhov, 10%
Germaine Mason, 9%
Donald Thomas, 8%
Dustin Jonas, 6%
Analysis: The world's top three are all here, but Williams is competing at home. Jet lag alone gives him an advantage over the Russians, and Manson has been inexplicably average lately. Take Williams.
Pole Vault
Derek Miles, 47%
Tim Mack, 18%
Evgenyi Lukyanenko, 13%
Jeremy Scott, 13%
Jacob Pauli, 3%
Giovanni Lanaro, 3%
Daichi Sawano, 2%
Alhaji Jeng, 1%
Analysis: Miles and Lukyanenko are probably the favorites, and I'll give the nod to Miles.
EDIT: Lukyanenko is a scratch.
Long Jump
Dwight Phillips, 55%
Irving Saladino, 24%
Brian Johnson, 5%
Miguel Pate, 4%
Fabrice Lapierre, 4%
Trevell Quinley, 4%
Matthew Turner, 3%
Yayah Berrabah, 1%
Analysis: Saladino just beat Phillips in Holland on Monday. The Panamanian always finds a way to win.
Visa Shot Put
Reese Hoffa, 42%
Christian Cantwell, 23%
Adam Nelson, 20%
Dan Taylor, 8%
Tomasz Majewski, 2%
Andrei Mikhnevich, 2%
Dorian Scott, 1%
Dylan Armstrong, 1%
Analysis: This is a better field than the Olympic final last year. Taylor has had the hot hand as of late and is the world leader and I'd have to say is the favorite.
WOMEN
Visa 100m
Carmelita Jeter, 47%
Lauryn Williams, 13%
Kerron Stewart, 12%
Muna Lee, 11%
Shelly-Ann Fraser, 6%
Marshevet Hooker, 6%
Torri Edwards, 5%
Analysis: So should you go with the most dominant sprinter (Jeter) or the defending Olympic champ (Fraser)? The 100 is all about what you've done lately. Take Jeter.
Nutrilite 400m
Sanya Richards, 81%
Natasha Hastings, 8%
Shericka Williams, 6%
Novlene Williams, 2%
Melanie Walker, 2%
Amantle Montsho, 1%
Anastasia Kapachinskaya, 0%
Analysis: Unless Richards is ill (a distinct possibility), she should win. Shericka Williams is your backup pick.
800m
Pamela Jelimo, 37%
Hazel Clark, 30%
Kenia Sinclair, 10%
Janeth Jepkosgei, 10%
Alysia Johnson, 6%
Tatyana Andrianova, 4%
Jemma Simpson, 3%
Jesse Carlin, 1%
Analysis: Interesting. Jelimo was untouchable last year but recently in Rabat she was ordinary. Since I don't think you can change your form in the middle distances quickly, I'm taking Jepkosgei, who has been consistently tough for several years.
Nike 1500m
Christin Wurth-Thomas, 22%
Shalane Flanagan, 17%
Anna Willard, 16%
Gelete Burka, 12%
Shannon Rowbury, 11%
Nancy Lagat, 7%
Jenny Barringer, 4%
Shayne Culpepper, 3%
Treniere Clement, 3%
Meskerem Assefa, 2%
Nikeya Green, 1%
Erin Donohue, 1%
Anna Alminova, 1%
Nuria Fernandez, 1%
Analysis: This is a great field. You could make an argument for any of eight athletes to win. Burka ran extremely well in Holland on Monday with a 3:58 which puts her at the head of the list. But Alminova's indoor season showed she is capable of running just as well.
2000m
Kara Goucher, 42%
Sally Kipyego, 14%
Maryam Jamal, 13%
Linet Masai, 8%
Vivian Cheruiyot, 7%
Sara Hall, 6%
Jen Rhines, 3%
Amy Yoder-Begley, 2%
Pauline Korikwiang, 2%
Lauren Hagans, 2%
Sara Vaughn, 1%
Ariana Lambie, 1%
Marina Muncan, 0%
Analysis: I don't think anyone here can beat Jamal.
100m Hurdles
Dawn Harper, 38%
Priscilla Lopes-Schliep, 13%
Damu Cherry, 12%
Michelle Perry, 11%
Hyleas Fountain, 8%
Perdita Felicien, 7%
Vonette Dixon, 5%
Virginia Powell, 4%
Brigitte Foster-Hylton, 2%
Analysis: I think Lopes-Schliep is the best hurdler in the race.
Long Jump
Brittney Reese, 28%
Hyleas Fountain, 20%
Grace Upshaw, 18%
Brianna Glenn, 9%
Tianna Madison, 7%
Yelena Sokolova, 6%
Jovanee Jarrett, 5%
Funmilayo Jimoh, 4%
Akiba McKinney, 2%
Ksenija Balta, 1%
Tabia Charles, 1%
Analysis: Sokolova is no pushover, but Reese bombed one big jump after another all through May. She should win.
Discus
Stephanie Brown Trafton, 55%
Suzy Powell Roos, 21%
Annie Hess, 6%
Aretha Thurmond, 6%
Gia Lewis, 5%
Summer Pierson, 4%
Becky Breisch, 2%
Lucy Cridland, 1%
Analysis: In the absence of any foreigners, Brown Trafton is almost a lock.
Hammer
Oksana Menkova, 33%
Amber Campbell, 16%
Jessica Cosby, 13%
Betty Heidler, 11%
Britney Henry, 10%
Loree Smith, 6%
Darya Pchelnick, 5%
Sultana Frizell, 5%
Analysis: This will be the season opener for Menkova, the Olympic champion. This is probably the deepest competition of the year so far, but it's hard to pick against Menkova.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Fantasy League Outlook
Need some help in USATF's Pick N' Win game? I'm here to help.
Percentages are the portion of players who have picked that athlete (as of noon Thursday).
MEN
Visa 100m
Asafa Powell, 62%
Darvis Patton, 18%
Travis Padgett, 7%
Leroy Dixon, 3%
Michael Rodgers, 2%
Daniel Bailey, 2%
Richard Thompson, 2%
Derrick Atkins, 1%
Michael Frater, 1%
Steve Mullings, 1%
Yohon Blake, 1%
Preston Perry, 0%
Ivory Williams, 0%
Alonso Edward, 0%
Brendan Christian, 0%
Nesta Carter, 0%
Trell Kimmons, 0%
Aaron Armstrong, 0%
Winston Barnes, 0%
Analysis: This all comes down to Powell, and whether or not he will run. You can change your picks up until noon (EDT) on Saturday. I'm going to play it safe and not pick him, and give up a few points if he does in order to avoid a goose egg if he doesn't. In his absence it's a toss-up between Darvis Patton, Mike Rodgers and Daniel Bailey. I'm going to go with the latter.
Western Union 200m
Tyson Gay, 63%
Wallace Spearmon, 17%
Jeremy Wariner, 10%
Xavier Carter, 9%
Lionel Larry, 2%
Rodney Martin, 0%
David Neville, 0%
Chris Williams, 0%
Analysis: Provided Gay is in shape and healthy, he should be a pretty safe pick. He could be beaten by Spearmon, but I doubt it.
Nutrilite 400m
LaShawn Merritt, 87%
Kerron Clement, 9%
Andrew Rock, 1%
Andrae Williams, 1%
Tabarie Henry, 1%
Chris Brown, 1%
Renny Quow, 0%
Ricardo Chambers, 0%
Analysis: Clement is a stud 400 hurdler, but even he is overmatched here. Merritt will win, as the only guy who could touch him is in the 200.
NY Running Comp 800m
Khadevis Robinson, 56%
Lopez Lomong, 15%
Gary Reed, 10%
Boaz Lalang, 5%
David Krummenacker, 4%
Brandon Shaw, 2%
Christian Smith, 2%
Nate Brannen, 2%
Duane Solomon, 2%
Jonathan Johnson, 1%
Dustin Emrani, 1%
Analysis: This will come down to Lalang and Reed. Lalang hasn't run since indoors, and he was beaten in his opener there, but went on to beat Bungei and Borzakovskiy. If he's anywhere near his best he'll win, and if not he'll still finish high.
Reebok 1500m
Alan Webb, 52%
Leonel Manzano, 11%
Nicholas Kemboi, 8%
Chris Lukezic, 7%
Peter Vanderwesthuizen, 5%
Henok Legesse, 4%
Rob Myers, 4%
Kevin Sullivan, 3%
Pablo Solares, 2%
Moise Joseph, 2%
Juan Van Deventer, 1%
Taylor Milne, 1%
Reda Ait Douida, 0%
Andrew Bumbalough, 0%
Analysis: This is a tough call, as no one stands out above the others. You could take a chance on Henok Legesse, the double Ethiopian champ (800 and 1500). Vanderwesthuizen has run well in the last two VISA tour meets and is a safe pick. Just don't take Webb--upside is good, but the downside...
5000m
Bernard Lagat, 77%
Gebre Gebremariam, 5%
Josphat Boit, 3%
Sam Chelanga, 3%
Bekana Daba, 2%
Micah Kogo, 2%
Edwin Soi, 2%
Haron Lagat, 1%
Dejen Gebremeskel, 1%
Aron Rono, 1%
Habtamu Fikadu, 1%
Juan Luis Barrios, 1%
Nick McCormick, 0%
Jorge Torres, 0%
Seth Summerside, 0%
Seth Pilkington, 0%
Sahle Warga, 0%
Analysis: This is going to be the most interesting race in the whole meet. You've got the defending world champs in cross country (Gebremariam) and 5000 meters (Lagat) and there are others who are capable of beating them both (Kogo, Soi). I'm going against the grain and taking Gebremariam due to my new Fantasy League rule: if an Ethiopian shows up at the start line, he's ready to run near his best.
110m Hurdles
Terrence Trammell, 85%
Antwon Hicks, 5%
David Payne, 5%
Aries Merritt, 2%
Eric Mitchum, 1%
Richard Phillips, 1%
Jerome Miller, 0%
Shamar Sands, 0%
Ladji Doucoure, 0%
Ryan Brathwaite, 0%
Analysis: Trammell.
Reebok 400m Hurdles
Angelo Taylor, 52%
Bershawn Jackson, 32%
Michael Tinsley, 3%
Derrick Williams, 3%
Javier Coulson, 3%
Brandon Johnson, 2%
James Carter, 2%
Reggie Rucker, 1%
Kenneth Ferguson, 1%
Dean Griffiths, 0%
Danny McFarlane, 0%
Reuben McCoy, 0%
Markino Buckley, 0%
Analysis: Tinsley and Taylor are good choices, but I think there's going to be an upset. Learn the name "Javier Culson" because he'll be first across the line on Saturday.
USATF Javelin
Sean Furey, 27%
Adam Montague, 17%
Bobby Smith, 14%
Justin St Clair, 13%
Dan Gale, 10%
Barry Krammes, 9%
Joshua Kaehler, 9%
Analysis: Pick 'em.
WOMEN
Visa 100m
Veronica Campbell-Brown, 43%
Carmelita Jeter, 27%
Muna Lee, 8%
Lauryn Williams, 7%
Torri Edwards, 5%
Bianca Knight, 3%
Marshevet Hooker, 2%
Angela Williams, 1%
Debbie Ferguson, 1%
Sheri-Ann Brooks, 1%
Kelly-Ann Baptiste, 1%
Shalonda Solomon, 1%
Tahesia Harrigan, 0%
Carol Rodriguez, 0%
Gloria Asumnu, 0%
Schillonie Calvert, 0%
Muriel Hurtis-Houairi, 0%
Analysis: VCB's exploits in Florida last weekend lead me to believe she'll beat Jeter, but it will be closer than a lot of people think it will be.
200m
Bianca Knight, 38%
Lauryn Williams, 28%
Shalonda Solomon, 17%
Debbie Ferguson, 9%
Simone Facey, 3%
Aleen Bailey, 3%
Muriel Hurtis-Houairi, 1%
Cydonie Mothersill, 1%
Analysis: I don't have a clear favorite here, but I think I'm going with Knight. Bailey or Mothersill would be good upset picks.
Nutrilite 400m
Allyson Felix, 83%
Natasha Hastings, 9%
Shericka Williams, 2%
Monica Hargrove, 2%
Novlene Williams-Mills, 1%
Shana Cox, 1%
Shereefa Lloyd, 1%
Nadia Cunningham, 0%
Analysis: Felix. Duh.
800m
Hazel Clark, 43%
Kenia Sinclair, 21%
Anna Willard, 12%
Alysia Johnson, 6%
Katie Waits, 5%
Erin Donohue, 4%
Nikeya Green, 3%
Rebecca Johnstone, 2%
Sophia Smellie, 1%
Maggie Vessey, 1%
Jesse Carlin, 1%
Morgan Uceny, 0%
Analysis: Sinclair, hands down.
Reebok 1500m
Sally Kipyego, 32%
Mestawot Tadesse, 14%
Vivian Cheruiyot, 13%
Lindsey Gallo, 12%
Christin Wurth-Thomas, 12%
Treniere Clement, 4%
Amy Mortimer, 3%
Malika Akkaoui, 3%
Lauren Hagans, 2%
Julia Howard, 2%
Kalkidan Gezahegne, 1%
Roisin McGettigan, 1%
Malindi Elmore, 0%
Renee Metivier-Baillie, 0%
Deidre Byrne, 0%
Analysis: Cheruiyot is so much better than anyone else in the race.
NYRR 5000m
Tirunesh Dibaba, 56%
Genzebe Dibaba, 13%
Jen Rhines, 9%
Katie McGregor, 4%
Carrie Tollefson, 4%
Kim Smith, 4%
Linet Masai, 3%
Korene Hinds, 2%
Barbara Parker, 2%
Maureen McCandless, 1%
Delilah DiCrescenzo, 1%
Marina Muncan, 1%
Emily Brown, 0%
Julie Culley, 0%
Mardrea Hyman, 0%
Analysis: According to my new Ethiopian rule, you have to take Tiru Dibaba. Which you would have done anyway.
Irie JAM 400m Hurdle
Tiffany Ross-Williams, 61%
Melanie Walker, 15%
Latosha Wallace, 5%
Nickiesha Wilson, 4%
Ajoke Odumosu, 4%
Angel Perkins, 3%
Nicole Dumpson, 2%
Kaliese Spencer, 2%
Christine Spence, 1%
Tasha Danvers, 1%
Shevon Stoddart, 1%
Miriam Barnes, 0%
Angela Morosanu, 0%
Analysis: Walker is the defending Olympic champ, and while it's her season opener in the hurdles, no one else in the race has run particularly fast yet. A no-brainer.
Reebok Long Jump
Grace Upshaw, 45%
Carolina Kluft, 27%
Tianna Madison, 12%
Brianna Glenn, 8%
Jovanee Jarrett, 7%
Ruky Abdulai, 0%
Analysis: This is tough. No one has shown particularly good form yet save Upshaw. The real confounding variable is Kluft, who has yet to compete in 2009. I'd have to go with her, though.
Nutrilite Pole Vault
Jenn Stuczynski, 89%
Stacy Dragila, 4%
Lacy Janson, 1%
Becky Holliday, 1%
Jillian Schwartz, 1%
April Steiner-Bennett, 1%
Shuying Gao, 1%
Chelsea Johnson, 1%
Analysis: Stuczynski.
USATF Shot Put
Michelle Carter, 40%
Jillian Camarena, 17%
Elizabeth Wanless, 8%
Cleopatra Borel-Brown, 7%
Chandra Brewer, 7%
Jessica Pressley, 7%
Rachel Jansen, 6%
Kristin Heaston, 5%
Abigail Ruston, 3%
Analysis: I'm betting this will come down to Wanless, Camarena, and Borel-Brown. I'm going with the latter.
USATF Discus
Stephanie Brown Trafton, 53%
Suzy Powell Roos, 22%
Summer Pierson, 8%
Gia Lewis, 7%
Becky Breisch, 5%
Aretha Thurmond, 4%
Analysis: Brown-Trafton is the defending Olympic champ and threw the world leader last weekend. Easy pick.
Percentages are the portion of players who have picked that athlete (as of noon Thursday).
MEN
Visa 100m
Asafa Powell, 62%
Darvis Patton, 18%
Travis Padgett, 7%
Leroy Dixon, 3%
Michael Rodgers, 2%
Daniel Bailey, 2%
Richard Thompson, 2%
Derrick Atkins, 1%
Michael Frater, 1%
Steve Mullings, 1%
Yohon Blake, 1%
Preston Perry, 0%
Ivory Williams, 0%
Alonso Edward, 0%
Brendan Christian, 0%
Nesta Carter, 0%
Trell Kimmons, 0%
Aaron Armstrong, 0%
Winston Barnes, 0%
Analysis: This all comes down to Powell, and whether or not he will run. You can change your picks up until noon (EDT) on Saturday. I'm going to play it safe and not pick him, and give up a few points if he does in order to avoid a goose egg if he doesn't. In his absence it's a toss-up between Darvis Patton, Mike Rodgers and Daniel Bailey. I'm going to go with the latter.
Western Union 200m
Tyson Gay, 63%
Wallace Spearmon, 17%
Jeremy Wariner, 10%
Xavier Carter, 9%
Lionel Larry, 2%
Rodney Martin, 0%
David Neville, 0%
Chris Williams, 0%
Analysis: Provided Gay is in shape and healthy, he should be a pretty safe pick. He could be beaten by Spearmon, but I doubt it.
Nutrilite 400m
LaShawn Merritt, 87%
Kerron Clement, 9%
Andrew Rock, 1%
Andrae Williams, 1%
Tabarie Henry, 1%
Chris Brown, 1%
Renny Quow, 0%
Ricardo Chambers, 0%
Analysis: Clement is a stud 400 hurdler, but even he is overmatched here. Merritt will win, as the only guy who could touch him is in the 200.
NY Running Comp 800m
Khadevis Robinson, 56%
Lopez Lomong, 15%
Gary Reed, 10%
Boaz Lalang, 5%
David Krummenacker, 4%
Brandon Shaw, 2%
Christian Smith, 2%
Nate Brannen, 2%
Duane Solomon, 2%
Jonathan Johnson, 1%
Dustin Emrani, 1%
Analysis: This will come down to Lalang and Reed. Lalang hasn't run since indoors, and he was beaten in his opener there, but went on to beat Bungei and Borzakovskiy. If he's anywhere near his best he'll win, and if not he'll still finish high.
Reebok 1500m
Alan Webb, 52%
Leonel Manzano, 11%
Nicholas Kemboi, 8%
Chris Lukezic, 7%
Peter Vanderwesthuizen, 5%
Henok Legesse, 4%
Rob Myers, 4%
Kevin Sullivan, 3%
Pablo Solares, 2%
Moise Joseph, 2%
Juan Van Deventer, 1%
Taylor Milne, 1%
Reda Ait Douida, 0%
Andrew Bumbalough, 0%
Analysis: This is a tough call, as no one stands out above the others. You could take a chance on Henok Legesse, the double Ethiopian champ (800 and 1500). Vanderwesthuizen has run well in the last two VISA tour meets and is a safe pick. Just don't take Webb--upside is good, but the downside...
5000m
Bernard Lagat, 77%
Gebre Gebremariam, 5%
Josphat Boit, 3%
Sam Chelanga, 3%
Bekana Daba, 2%
Micah Kogo, 2%
Edwin Soi, 2%
Haron Lagat, 1%
Dejen Gebremeskel, 1%
Aron Rono, 1%
Habtamu Fikadu, 1%
Juan Luis Barrios, 1%
Nick McCormick, 0%
Jorge Torres, 0%
Seth Summerside, 0%
Seth Pilkington, 0%
Sahle Warga, 0%
Analysis: This is going to be the most interesting race in the whole meet. You've got the defending world champs in cross country (Gebremariam) and 5000 meters (Lagat) and there are others who are capable of beating them both (Kogo, Soi). I'm going against the grain and taking Gebremariam due to my new Fantasy League rule: if an Ethiopian shows up at the start line, he's ready to run near his best.
110m Hurdles
Terrence Trammell, 85%
Antwon Hicks, 5%
David Payne, 5%
Aries Merritt, 2%
Eric Mitchum, 1%
Richard Phillips, 1%
Jerome Miller, 0%
Shamar Sands, 0%
Ladji Doucoure, 0%
Ryan Brathwaite, 0%
Analysis: Trammell.
Reebok 400m Hurdles
Angelo Taylor, 52%
Bershawn Jackson, 32%
Michael Tinsley, 3%
Derrick Williams, 3%
Javier Coulson, 3%
Brandon Johnson, 2%
James Carter, 2%
Reggie Rucker, 1%
Kenneth Ferguson, 1%
Dean Griffiths, 0%
Danny McFarlane, 0%
Reuben McCoy, 0%
Markino Buckley, 0%
Analysis: Tinsley and Taylor are good choices, but I think there's going to be an upset. Learn the name "Javier Culson" because he'll be first across the line on Saturday.
USATF Javelin
Sean Furey, 27%
Adam Montague, 17%
Bobby Smith, 14%
Justin St Clair, 13%
Dan Gale, 10%
Barry Krammes, 9%
Joshua Kaehler, 9%
Analysis: Pick 'em.
WOMEN
Visa 100m
Veronica Campbell-Brown, 43%
Carmelita Jeter, 27%
Muna Lee, 8%
Lauryn Williams, 7%
Torri Edwards, 5%
Bianca Knight, 3%
Marshevet Hooker, 2%
Angela Williams, 1%
Debbie Ferguson, 1%
Sheri-Ann Brooks, 1%
Kelly-Ann Baptiste, 1%
Shalonda Solomon, 1%
Tahesia Harrigan, 0%
Carol Rodriguez, 0%
Gloria Asumnu, 0%
Schillonie Calvert, 0%
Muriel Hurtis-Houairi, 0%
Analysis: VCB's exploits in Florida last weekend lead me to believe she'll beat Jeter, but it will be closer than a lot of people think it will be.
200m
Bianca Knight, 38%
Lauryn Williams, 28%
Shalonda Solomon, 17%
Debbie Ferguson, 9%
Simone Facey, 3%
Aleen Bailey, 3%
Muriel Hurtis-Houairi, 1%
Cydonie Mothersill, 1%
Analysis: I don't have a clear favorite here, but I think I'm going with Knight. Bailey or Mothersill would be good upset picks.
Nutrilite 400m
Allyson Felix, 83%
Natasha Hastings, 9%
Shericka Williams, 2%
Monica Hargrove, 2%
Novlene Williams-Mills, 1%
Shana Cox, 1%
Shereefa Lloyd, 1%
Nadia Cunningham, 0%
Analysis: Felix. Duh.
800m
Hazel Clark, 43%
Kenia Sinclair, 21%
Anna Willard, 12%
Alysia Johnson, 6%
Katie Waits, 5%
Erin Donohue, 4%
Nikeya Green, 3%
Rebecca Johnstone, 2%
Sophia Smellie, 1%
Maggie Vessey, 1%
Jesse Carlin, 1%
Morgan Uceny, 0%
Analysis: Sinclair, hands down.
Reebok 1500m
Sally Kipyego, 32%
Mestawot Tadesse, 14%
Vivian Cheruiyot, 13%
Lindsey Gallo, 12%
Christin Wurth-Thomas, 12%
Treniere Clement, 4%
Amy Mortimer, 3%
Malika Akkaoui, 3%
Lauren Hagans, 2%
Julia Howard, 2%
Kalkidan Gezahegne, 1%
Roisin McGettigan, 1%
Malindi Elmore, 0%
Renee Metivier-Baillie, 0%
Deidre Byrne, 0%
Analysis: Cheruiyot is so much better than anyone else in the race.
NYRR 5000m
Tirunesh Dibaba, 56%
Genzebe Dibaba, 13%
Jen Rhines, 9%
Katie McGregor, 4%
Carrie Tollefson, 4%
Kim Smith, 4%
Linet Masai, 3%
Korene Hinds, 2%
Barbara Parker, 2%
Maureen McCandless, 1%
Delilah DiCrescenzo, 1%
Marina Muncan, 1%
Emily Brown, 0%
Julie Culley, 0%
Mardrea Hyman, 0%
Analysis: According to my new Ethiopian rule, you have to take Tiru Dibaba. Which you would have done anyway.
Irie JAM 400m Hurdle
Tiffany Ross-Williams, 61%
Melanie Walker, 15%
Latosha Wallace, 5%
Nickiesha Wilson, 4%
Ajoke Odumosu, 4%
Angel Perkins, 3%
Nicole Dumpson, 2%
Kaliese Spencer, 2%
Christine Spence, 1%
Tasha Danvers, 1%
Shevon Stoddart, 1%
Miriam Barnes, 0%
Angela Morosanu, 0%
Analysis: Walker is the defending Olympic champ, and while it's her season opener in the hurdles, no one else in the race has run particularly fast yet. A no-brainer.
Reebok Long Jump
Grace Upshaw, 45%
Carolina Kluft, 27%
Tianna Madison, 12%
Brianna Glenn, 8%
Jovanee Jarrett, 7%
Ruky Abdulai, 0%
Analysis: This is tough. No one has shown particularly good form yet save Upshaw. The real confounding variable is Kluft, who has yet to compete in 2009. I'd have to go with her, though.
Nutrilite Pole Vault
Jenn Stuczynski, 89%
Stacy Dragila, 4%
Lacy Janson, 1%
Becky Holliday, 1%
Jillian Schwartz, 1%
April Steiner-Bennett, 1%
Shuying Gao, 1%
Chelsea Johnson, 1%
Analysis: Stuczynski.
USATF Shot Put
Michelle Carter, 40%
Jillian Camarena, 17%
Elizabeth Wanless, 8%
Cleopatra Borel-Brown, 7%
Chandra Brewer, 7%
Jessica Pressley, 7%
Rachel Jansen, 6%
Kristin Heaston, 5%
Abigail Ruston, 3%
Analysis: I'm betting this will come down to Wanless, Camarena, and Borel-Brown. I'm going with the latter.
USATF Discus
Stephanie Brown Trafton, 53%
Suzy Powell Roos, 22%
Summer Pierson, 8%
Gia Lewis, 7%
Becky Breisch, 5%
Aretha Thurmond, 4%
Analysis: Brown-Trafton is the defending Olympic champ and threw the world leader last weekend. Easy pick.
Sunday, February 08, 2009
Boston Indoor Recap
Website / Results / News
My thoughts on the Reebok Boston Indoor Games...
I can't comment on the announcers; I was watching the meet at a noisy bar and couldn't hear anything. I suppose it's just as well...
TV coverage on the whole wasn't bad but still just not good enough. Case in point: field event coverage consisted of two pole vaulters attempting record heights. No actual competition between athletes was portrayed.
Who the hell is Sentayehu Ejigu? She's a B-level Ethiopian who hadn't broken 15 minutes for 5k in four years. She pushed Shalane Flanagan to an American Record (by a good 20 seconds) and beat her down the stretch. I thought Flanagan noticably overstrode in the last 20 meters or so and that's where she lost it, but I couldn be reading too much into the video replay. In any case, Ejigu must be considered a real contender to make the Ethiopian team for the World Championships--and any Ethiopian woman in the 5k is automatically a medal threat, like American men in the 400.
I think we can stick a fork in David Krummenacker. I don't think he's ever again going to make a national team or be a factor in big GP meets. And Alan Webb...he got solidly beat by Chris Lukezic? No disrespect to Lukezic, but Webb is supposed to be head and shoulders above him.
In the Pick N' Win game, I have now moved up to 18th. If I hadn't made two bonehead picks at Millrose, I'd be first. My two bombs this weekend were Bianca Knight in the 60m (bad start, never a factor) and Sarah Jamieson in the mile (inexlipicably poor race for her). Other than that, every one of my picks was first or second. If I win that $2000, I'm walking into the bar decked out like I'm at the Player Haters Ball.
My thoughts on the Reebok Boston Indoor Games...
I can't comment on the announcers; I was watching the meet at a noisy bar and couldn't hear anything. I suppose it's just as well...
TV coverage on the whole wasn't bad but still just not good enough. Case in point: field event coverage consisted of two pole vaulters attempting record heights. No actual competition between athletes was portrayed.
Who the hell is Sentayehu Ejigu? She's a B-level Ethiopian who hadn't broken 15 minutes for 5k in four years. She pushed Shalane Flanagan to an American Record (by a good 20 seconds) and beat her down the stretch. I thought Flanagan noticably overstrode in the last 20 meters or so and that's where she lost it, but I couldn be reading too much into the video replay. In any case, Ejigu must be considered a real contender to make the Ethiopian team for the World Championships--and any Ethiopian woman in the 5k is automatically a medal threat, like American men in the 400.
I think we can stick a fork in David Krummenacker. I don't think he's ever again going to make a national team or be a factor in big GP meets. And Alan Webb...he got solidly beat by Chris Lukezic? No disrespect to Lukezic, but Webb is supposed to be head and shoulders above him.
In the Pick N' Win game, I have now moved up to 18th. If I hadn't made two bonehead picks at Millrose, I'd be first. My two bombs this weekend were Bianca Knight in the 60m (bad start, never a factor) and Sarah Jamieson in the mile (inexlipicably poor race for her). Other than that, every one of my picks was first or second. If I win that $2000, I'm walking into the bar decked out like I'm at the Player Haters Ball.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
USATF Indoor Championships Recap
IAAF Recap
USATF Recap
Results
Less Than Our Best liveblog
My thoughts on the USATF Indoor Championships...
I knew Michael Rodgers was going to win the 60, because he's outrun all but Olusoji Fasuba this winter. But that's all I knew about him. Turns out he was last year's NAIA champ at Oklahoma Baptist.
My hope for a domestic rivalry in the men's 800 meters may come to pass. Just 0.01 separated Robinson & Symmonds today. Let's hope there are enough 800m races in the outdoor VISA series to build on this.
As Matt Taylor demonstrated in the last Runnerville Weekly, the Tyson coverage of the men's shot was shameful. Today they actually built some drama into the event--inarguably the toughest event to win in the entire meet.
Rob Myers still runs waaay too tight, but he ran just about a perfect race to win his second national title. Love to see an Ohio guy win!
This week's TV complaint: The USATF XC coverage looked very dull. I had a USATF party going on in my basement bar, so I couldn't always zero in on everything like usual, but it looked like a good time to go get another beer.
How did I do in the fantasy league? OK. I went from 50th t0 49th. Looks like my 9-for-13 at Tyson was a one-off success.
On to Valencia! It seems that WCSN's coverage is getting a bit more reliable, so I'm going to figure out how to hook my laptop up to my TV to watch the indoor worlds.
USATF Recap
Results
Less Than Our Best liveblog
My thoughts on the USATF Indoor Championships...
I knew Michael Rodgers was going to win the 60, because he's outrun all but Olusoji Fasuba this winter. But that's all I knew about him. Turns out he was last year's NAIA champ at Oklahoma Baptist.
My hope for a domestic rivalry in the men's 800 meters may come to pass. Just 0.01 separated Robinson & Symmonds today. Let's hope there are enough 800m races in the outdoor VISA series to build on this.
As Matt Taylor demonstrated in the last Runnerville Weekly, the Tyson coverage of the men's shot was shameful. Today they actually built some drama into the event--inarguably the toughest event to win in the entire meet.
Rob Myers still runs waaay too tight, but he ran just about a perfect race to win his second national title. Love to see an Ohio guy win!
This week's TV complaint: The USATF XC coverage looked very dull. I had a USATF party going on in my basement bar, so I couldn't always zero in on everything like usual, but it looked like a good time to go get another beer.
How did I do in the fantasy league? OK. I went from 50th t0 49th. Looks like my 9-for-13 at Tyson was a one-off success.
On to Valencia! It seems that WCSN's coverage is getting a bit more reliable, so I'm going to figure out how to hook my laptop up to my TV to watch the indoor worlds.
Friday, February 22, 2008
Cantwell Has Massive Series
Christian Cantwell just made this weekend's USATF men's shot final even more interesting. Today he competed at the Central Missouri Classic and put together what might be the best series in indoor shot-putting history.
His best put, 72' 9 1/4" is an indoor PR (but inferior to his outdoor best). So far as anyone can determine, he's the first ever to have all six puts at 70 or better in an indoor competition.
But I'm still going with Adam Nelson to win. Nelson has a history of coming up big in big meets and Cantwell does not.
In other news, part of Saturday's competition has been rescheduled. Very bad weather in the Boston area has made travel difficult. If you've got either Bershawn Jackson or Jen Toomey in the fantasy league, scratch 'em because they won't be there.
His best put, 72' 9 1/4" is an indoor PR (but inferior to his outdoor best). So far as anyone can determine, he's the first ever to have all six puts at 70 or better in an indoor competition.
But I'm still going with Adam Nelson to win. Nelson has a history of coming up big in big meets and Cantwell does not.
In other news, part of Saturday's competition has been rescheduled. Very bad weather in the Boston area has made travel difficult. If you've got either Bershawn Jackson or Jen Toomey in the fantasy league, scratch 'em because they won't be there.
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