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Friday, June 05, 2009

Fantasy League Outlook

I don't know if my advice should be followed, considering the thumping I took in the Pick N' Win game last week. On the other hand, who else is handing out advice?

Under each event is the start list and the percent of fantasy players who picked them (as of Friday morning).

Walter Dix, 56%
Asafa Powell, 22%
Travis Padgett, 13%
Churandy Martina, 4%
Richard Thompson, 2%
Michael Frater, 1%
Jaysuma Ndure, 0%
Marc Burns, 0%
Analysis: Dix and Martina are the two to watch, and I'd go with the former.

Nutrilite 300m
LaShawn Merritt, 75%
Wallace Spearmon, 14%
Xavier Carter, 8%
Renny Quow, 1%
David Neville, 1%
Tyler Christopher, 0%
Darold Williamson, 0%
Analysis: Merritt might be better at this distance than he is at the 400. Barring injury or illness he cannot be beaten.

Nike 800m
Nick Symmonds, 51%
Khadevis Robinson, 25%
Alfred Yego, 8%
Yuriy Borzakovskiy, 6%
Boaz Lalang, 3%
Gary Reed, 2%
Ahmad Ismail, 2%
Matt Scherer, 1%
Christian Smith, 1%
Elijah Greer, 1%
Analysis: Yego is the '07 World champ and '08 Olympic bronze medalist. It would be hard to go too wrong with him.

Bowerman Mile
Leonel Manzano, 31%
Asbel Kiprop, 17%
Alan Webb, 16%
Lopez Lomong, 13%
Haron Keitany, 7%
Nicholas Kemboi, 3%
Nate Brannen, 3%
Shedrack Korir, 3%
Henok Legesse, 2%
Peter Vanderwesthuizen, 1%
Josephat Kithii, 1%
Will Leer, 1%
Jackson Kivuna, 1%
Moise Joseph, 1%
Evan Jager, 0%
Belal Mansour, 0%
Analysis: Last month in Doha, Asbel Kiprop ran 1:43 and Keitany ran 3:30. The race will come down to those two, and I'm going with Kiprop.

Paul Koech, 38%
Ezekiel Kemboi, 25%
Mahiedine Mekhissi-Benabbad, 8%
Josh McAdams, 7%
Steve Slattery, 7%
Ben Bruce, 4%
Brian Olinger, 2%
Billy Nelson, 2%
Luke Watson, 2%
Tom Brooks, 2%
Kyle Alcorn, 1%
Roba Gary, 1%
Dan Huling, 1%
Analysis: Koech and Kemboi are head and shoulders above the rest of the world right now. Koech was beaten by Kemboi in Doha, who then started talking about attacking the world record. I would not be surprised if such an attempt were made on Sunday and I'm going with Kemboi.

Bernard Lagat, 77%
Saif Shaheen, 6%
Sileshi Sihine, 5%
Alistair Cragg, 3%
Matt Tegenkamp, 2%
Dejen Gebremeskel, 1%
Moses Masai, 1%
Jonathan Riley, 1%
Chris Solinsky, 1%
Abreham Feleke, 1%
Leonard Komon, 1%
Matthew Kisorio, 1%
Steve Sherer, 0%
Brent Vaughn, 0%
Juan Luis Barrios, 0%
Analysis: Lagat has run well in his last two meets, but Sihine and Shaheen are a dangerous runners. I'm picking Lagat in an attempt to minimize the possible downside since we know how he's running right now, but the others are coming off layoffs.

400m Hurdles
Kerron Clement, 45%
Bershawn Jackson, 31%
Angelo Taylor, 16%
Michael Tinsley, 2%
Isa Phillips, 2%
James Carter, 2%
Kenneth Ferguson, 1%
Markino Buckley, 0%
Analysis: Clement is probably the best hurdler, and he's become more consistent over the years, but he's still a bit of a crapshoot. If you're jumpy about taking him (I'm not), Phillips is your best bet.

High Jump
Jesse Williams, 29%
Andrey Silnov, 14%
Jamie Nieto, 12%
Andra Manson, 11%
Ivan Ukhov, 10%
Germaine Mason, 9%
Donald Thomas, 8%
Dustin Jonas, 6%
Analysis: The world's top three are all here, but Williams is competing at home. Jet lag alone gives him an advantage over the Russians, and Manson has been inexplicably average lately. Take Williams.

Pole Vault
Derek Miles, 47%
Tim Mack, 18%
Evgenyi Lukyanenko, 13%
Jeremy Scott, 13%
Jacob Pauli, 3%
Giovanni Lanaro, 3%
Daichi Sawano, 2%
Alhaji Jeng, 1%
Analysis: Miles and Lukyanenko are probably the favorites, and I'll give the nod to Miles.
EDIT: Lukyanenko is a scratch.

Long Jump
Dwight Phillips, 55%
Irving Saladino, 24%
Brian Johnson, 5%
Miguel Pate, 4%
Fabrice Lapierre, 4%
Trevell Quinley, 4%
Matthew Turner, 3%
Yayah Berrabah, 1%
Analysis: Saladino just beat Phillips in Holland on Monday. The Panamanian always finds a way to win.

Visa Shot Put
Reese Hoffa, 42%
Christian Cantwell, 23%
Adam Nelson, 20%
Dan Taylor, 8%
Tomasz Majewski, 2%
Andrei Mikhnevich, 2%
Dorian Scott, 1%
Dylan Armstrong, 1%
Analysis: This is a better field than the Olympic final last year. Taylor has had the hot hand as of late and is the world leader and I'd have to say is the favorite.

Visa 100m
Carmelita Jeter, 47%
Lauryn Williams, 13%
Kerron Stewart, 12%
Muna Lee, 11%
Shelly-Ann Fraser, 6%
Marshevet Hooker, 6%
Torri Edwards, 5%
Analysis: So should you go with the most dominant sprinter (Jeter) or the defending Olympic champ (Fraser)? The 100 is all about what you've done lately. Take Jeter.

Nutrilite 400m
Sanya Richards, 81%
Natasha Hastings, 8%
Shericka Williams, 6%
Novlene Williams, 2%
Melanie Walker, 2%
Amantle Montsho, 1%
Anastasia Kapachinskaya, 0%
Analysis: Unless Richards is ill (a distinct possibility), she should win. Shericka Williams is your backup pick.

Pamela Jelimo, 37%
Hazel Clark, 30%
Kenia Sinclair, 10%
Janeth Jepkosgei, 10%
Alysia Johnson, 6%
Tatyana Andrianova, 4%
Jemma Simpson, 3%
Jesse Carlin, 1%
Analysis: Interesting. Jelimo was untouchable last year but recently in Rabat she was ordinary. Since I don't think you can change your form in the middle distances quickly, I'm taking Jepkosgei, who has been consistently tough for several years.

Nike 1500m
Christin Wurth-Thomas, 22%
Shalane Flanagan, 17%
Anna Willard, 16%
Gelete Burka, 12%
Shannon Rowbury, 11%
Nancy Lagat, 7%
Jenny Barringer, 4%
Shayne Culpepper, 3%
Treniere Clement, 3%
Meskerem Assefa, 2%
Nikeya Green, 1%
Erin Donohue, 1%
Anna Alminova, 1%
Nuria Fernandez, 1%
Analysis: This is a great field. You could make an argument for any of eight athletes to win. Burka ran extremely well in Holland on Monday with a 3:58 which puts her at the head of the list. But Alminova's indoor season showed she is capable of running just as well.

Kara Goucher, 42%
Sally Kipyego, 14%
Maryam Jamal, 13%
Linet Masai, 8%
Vivian Cheruiyot, 7%
Sara Hall, 6%
Jen Rhines, 3%
Amy Yoder-Begley, 2%
Pauline Korikwiang, 2%
Lauren Hagans, 2%
Sara Vaughn, 1%
Ariana Lambie, 1%
Marina Muncan, 0%
Analysis: I don't think anyone here can beat Jamal.

100m Hurdles
Dawn Harper, 38%
Priscilla Lopes-Schliep, 13%
Damu Cherry, 12%
Michelle Perry, 11%
Hyleas Fountain, 8%
Perdita Felicien, 7%
Vonette Dixon, 5%
Virginia Powell, 4%
Brigitte Foster-Hylton, 2%
Analysis: I think Lopes-Schliep is the best hurdler in the race.

Long Jump
Brittney Reese, 28%
Hyleas Fountain, 20%
Grace Upshaw, 18%
Brianna Glenn, 9%
Tianna Madison, 7%
Yelena Sokolova, 6%
Jovanee Jarrett, 5%
Funmilayo Jimoh, 4%
Akiba McKinney, 2%
Ksenija Balta, 1%
Tabia Charles, 1%
Analysis: Sokolova is no pushover, but Reese bombed one big jump after another all through May. She should win.

Stephanie Brown Trafton, 55%
Suzy Powell Roos, 21%
Annie Hess, 6%
Aretha Thurmond, 6%
Gia Lewis, 5%
Summer Pierson, 4%
Becky Breisch, 2%
Lucy Cridland, 1%
Analysis: In the absence of any foreigners, Brown Trafton is almost a lock.

Oksana Menkova, 33%
Amber Campbell, 16%
Jessica Cosby, 13%
Betty Heidler, 11%
Britney Henry, 10%
Loree Smith, 6%
Darya Pchelnick, 5%
Sultana Frizell, 5%
Analysis: This will be the season opener for Menkova, the Olympic champion. This is probably the deepest competition of the year so far, but it's hard to pick against Menkova.

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