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Thursday, May 28, 2009

Fantasy League Outlook

Need some help in USATF's Pick N' Win game? I'm here to help.

Percentages are the portion of players who have picked that athlete (as of noon Thursday).

Visa 100m

Asafa Powell, 62%
Darvis Patton, 18%
Travis Padgett, 7%
Leroy Dixon, 3%
Michael Rodgers, 2%
Daniel Bailey, 2%
Richard Thompson, 2%
Derrick Atkins, 1%
Michael Frater, 1%
Steve Mullings, 1%
Yohon Blake, 1%
Preston Perry, 0%
Ivory Williams, 0%
Alonso Edward, 0%
Brendan Christian, 0%
Nesta Carter, 0%
Trell Kimmons, 0%
Aaron Armstrong, 0%
Winston Barnes, 0%
Analysis: This all comes down to Powell, and whether or not he will run. You can change your picks up until noon (EDT) on Saturday. I'm going to play it safe and not pick him, and give up a few points if he does in order to avoid a goose egg if he doesn't. In his absence it's a toss-up between Darvis Patton, Mike Rodgers and Daniel Bailey. I'm going to go with the latter.

Western Union 200m
Tyson Gay, 63%
Wallace Spearmon, 17%
Jeremy Wariner, 10%
Xavier Carter, 9%
Lionel Larry, 2%
Rodney Martin, 0%
David Neville, 0%
Chris Williams, 0%
Analysis: Provided Gay is in shape and healthy, he should be a pretty safe pick. He could be beaten by Spearmon, but I doubt it.

Nutrilite 400m
LaShawn Merritt, 87%
Kerron Clement, 9%
Andrew Rock, 1%
Andrae Williams, 1%
Tabarie Henry, 1%
Chris Brown, 1%
Renny Quow, 0%
Ricardo Chambers, 0%
Analysis: Clement is a stud 400 hurdler, but even he is overmatched here. Merritt will win, as the only guy who could touch him is in the 200.

NY Running Comp 800m
Khadevis Robinson, 56%
Lopez Lomong, 15%
Gary Reed, 10%
Boaz Lalang, 5%
David Krummenacker, 4%
Brandon Shaw, 2%
Christian Smith, 2%
Nate Brannen, 2%
Duane Solomon, 2%
Jonathan Johnson, 1%
Dustin Emrani, 1%
Analysis: This will come down to Lalang and Reed. Lalang hasn't run since indoors, and he was beaten in his opener there, but went on to beat Bungei and Borzakovskiy. If he's anywhere near his best he'll win, and if not he'll still finish high.

Reebok 1500m
Alan Webb, 52%
Leonel Manzano, 11%
Nicholas Kemboi, 8%
Chris Lukezic, 7%
Peter Vanderwesthuizen, 5%
Henok Legesse, 4%
Rob Myers, 4%
Kevin Sullivan, 3%
Pablo Solares, 2%
Moise Joseph, 2%
Juan Van Deventer, 1%
Taylor Milne, 1%
Reda Ait Douida, 0%
Andrew Bumbalough, 0%
Analysis: This is a tough call, as no one stands out above the others. You could take a chance on Henok Legesse, the double Ethiopian champ (800 and 1500). Vanderwesthuizen has run well in the last two VISA tour meets and is a safe pick. Just don't take Webb--upside is good, but the downside...

Bernard Lagat, 77%
Gebre Gebremariam, 5%
Josphat Boit, 3%
Sam Chelanga, 3%
Bekana Daba, 2%
Micah Kogo, 2%
Edwin Soi, 2%
Haron Lagat, 1%
Dejen Gebremeskel, 1%
Aron Rono, 1%
Habtamu Fikadu, 1%
Juan Luis Barrios, 1%
Nick McCormick, 0%
Jorge Torres, 0%
Seth Summerside, 0%
Seth Pilkington, 0%
Sahle Warga, 0%
Analysis: This is going to be the most interesting race in the whole meet. You've got the defending world champs in cross country (Gebremariam) and 5000 meters (Lagat) and there are others who are capable of beating them both (Kogo, Soi). I'm going against the grain and taking Gebremariam due to my new Fantasy League rule: if an Ethiopian shows up at the start line, he's ready to run near his best.

110m Hurdles
Terrence Trammell, 85%
Antwon Hicks, 5%
David Payne, 5%
Aries Merritt, 2%
Eric Mitchum, 1%
Richard Phillips, 1%
Jerome Miller, 0%
Shamar Sands, 0%
Ladji Doucoure, 0%
Ryan Brathwaite, 0%
Analysis: Trammell.

Reebok 400m Hurdles
Angelo Taylor, 52%
Bershawn Jackson, 32%
Michael Tinsley, 3%
Derrick Williams, 3%
Javier Coulson, 3%
Brandon Johnson, 2%
James Carter, 2%
Reggie Rucker, 1%
Kenneth Ferguson, 1%
Dean Griffiths, 0%
Danny McFarlane, 0%
Reuben McCoy, 0%
Markino Buckley, 0%
Analysis: Tinsley and Taylor are good choices, but I think there's going to be an upset. Learn the name "Javier Culson" because he'll be first across the line on Saturday.

USATF Javelin
Sean Furey, 27%
Adam Montague, 17%
Bobby Smith, 14%
Justin St Clair, 13%
Dan Gale, 10%
Barry Krammes, 9%
Joshua Kaehler, 9%
Analysis: Pick 'em.

Visa 100m
Veronica Campbell-Brown, 43%
Carmelita Jeter, 27%
Muna Lee, 8%
Lauryn Williams, 7%
Torri Edwards, 5%
Bianca Knight, 3%
Marshevet Hooker, 2%
Angela Williams, 1%
Debbie Ferguson, 1%
Sheri-Ann Brooks, 1%
Kelly-Ann Baptiste, 1%
Shalonda Solomon, 1%
Tahesia Harrigan, 0%
Carol Rodriguez, 0%
Gloria Asumnu, 0%
Schillonie Calvert, 0%
Muriel Hurtis-Houairi, 0%
Analysis: VCB's exploits in Florida last weekend lead me to believe she'll beat Jeter, but it will be closer than a lot of people think it will be.

Bianca Knight, 38%
Lauryn Williams, 28%
Shalonda Solomon, 17%
Debbie Ferguson, 9%
Simone Facey, 3%
Aleen Bailey, 3%
Muriel Hurtis-Houairi, 1%
Cydonie Mothersill, 1%
Analysis: I don't have a clear favorite here, but I think I'm going with Knight. Bailey or Mothersill would be good upset picks.

Nutrilite 400m
Allyson Felix, 83%
Natasha Hastings, 9%
Shericka Williams, 2%
Monica Hargrove, 2%
Novlene Williams-Mills, 1%
Shana Cox, 1%
Shereefa Lloyd, 1%
Nadia Cunningham, 0%
Analysis: Felix. Duh.

Hazel Clark, 43%
Kenia Sinclair, 21%
Anna Willard, 12%
Alysia Johnson, 6%
Katie Waits, 5%
Erin Donohue, 4%
Nikeya Green, 3%
Rebecca Johnstone, 2%
Sophia Smellie, 1%
Maggie Vessey, 1%
Jesse Carlin, 1%
Morgan Uceny, 0%
Analysis: Sinclair, hands down.

Reebok 1500m
Sally Kipyego, 32%
Mestawot Tadesse, 14%
Vivian Cheruiyot, 13%
Lindsey Gallo, 12%
Christin Wurth-Thomas, 12%
Treniere Clement, 4%
Amy Mortimer, 3%
Malika Akkaoui, 3%
Lauren Hagans, 2%
Julia Howard, 2%
Kalkidan Gezahegne, 1%
Roisin McGettigan, 1%
Malindi Elmore, 0%
Renee Metivier-Baillie, 0%
Deidre Byrne, 0%
Analysis: Cheruiyot is so much better than anyone else in the race.

NYRR 5000m
Tirunesh Dibaba, 56%
Genzebe Dibaba, 13%
Jen Rhines, 9%
Katie McGregor, 4%
Carrie Tollefson, 4%
Kim Smith, 4%
Linet Masai, 3%
Korene Hinds, 2%
Barbara Parker, 2%
Maureen McCandless, 1%
Delilah DiCrescenzo, 1%
Marina Muncan, 1%
Emily Brown, 0%
Julie Culley, 0%
Mardrea Hyman, 0%
Analysis: According to my new Ethiopian rule, you have to take Tiru Dibaba. Which you would have done anyway.

Irie JAM 400m Hurdle
Tiffany Ross-Williams, 61%
Melanie Walker, 15%
Latosha Wallace, 5%
Nickiesha Wilson, 4%
Ajoke Odumosu, 4%
Angel Perkins, 3%
Nicole Dumpson, 2%
Kaliese Spencer, 2%
Christine Spence, 1%
Tasha Danvers, 1%
Shevon Stoddart, 1%
Miriam Barnes, 0%
Angela Morosanu, 0%
Analysis: Walker is the defending Olympic champ, and while it's her season opener in the hurdles, no one else in the race has run particularly fast yet. A no-brainer.

Reebok Long Jump
Grace Upshaw, 45%
Carolina Kluft, 27%
Tianna Madison, 12%
Brianna Glenn, 8%
Jovanee Jarrett, 7%
Ruky Abdulai, 0%
Analysis: This is tough. No one has shown particularly good form yet save Upshaw. The real confounding variable is Kluft, who has yet to compete in 2009. I'd have to go with her, though.

Nutrilite Pole Vault
Jenn Stuczynski, 89%
Stacy Dragila, 4%
Lacy Janson, 1%
Becky Holliday, 1%
Jillian Schwartz, 1%
April Steiner-Bennett, 1%
Shuying Gao, 1%
Chelsea Johnson, 1%
Analysis: Stuczynski.

USATF Shot Put
Michelle Carter, 40%
Jillian Camarena, 17%
Elizabeth Wanless, 8%
Cleopatra Borel-Brown, 7%
Chandra Brewer, 7%
Jessica Pressley, 7%
Rachel Jansen, 6%
Kristin Heaston, 5%
Abigail Ruston, 3%
Analysis: I'm betting this will come down to Wanless, Camarena, and Borel-Brown. I'm going with the latter.

USATF Discus
Stephanie Brown Trafton, 53%
Suzy Powell Roos, 22%
Summer Pierson, 8%
Gia Lewis, 7%
Becky Breisch, 5%
Aretha Thurmond, 4%
Analysis: Brown-Trafton is the defending Olympic champ and threw the world leader last weekend. Easy pick.

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