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Thursday, May 14, 2009

Fantasy League Outlook

Every other sport has online analysis to help you win your fantasy league.  So I'm here to offer up my thoughts for USATF's Pick & Win game.

 

Below are the fields for this weekend's Adidas Track Classic, and the percent of players who have pciked each athlete.  (Data as of Thursday afternoon.)

 

MEN

Discus

Jarred Rome, 29%

Ian Waltz, 28%

Jason Morgan, 10%

Sam Lightbody, 6%

James Dennis, 3%

Adam Kuehl, 1%

Drew Ulrick, 1%

Analysis: Rome and Waltz are head and shoulders above everyone else.  It's a toss-up.

 

400m Hurdles,  

Kerron Clement, 47%

Bershawn Jackson, 24%

Angelo Taylor, 16%

Felix Sanchez, 4%

Michael Tinsley, 3%

Derrick Williams, 2%

Kenneth Ferguson, 1%

Brandon Johnson, 1%

James Carter, 0%

Analysis: Clement was dominant in this event last year, and won his season opener in Osaka last week in a world-leading time.

 

Long Jump,  

Tyrone Smith, 48%

Matthew Turner, 24%

Cadeau Kelly, 11%

Norris Frederick, 10%

Dwight Phillips, 7%

Analysis: Phillips had a big jump two weeks ago to show he's still got it.  This is a no-brainer.

 

110m Hurdles,  

Terrence Trammell, 91%

Aries Merritt, 6%

Maurice Wignall, 1%

Shamar Sands, 1%

Jacoby DuBose, 0%

Jeffrey Porter, 0%

Ronnie Ash, 0%

Analysis: Trammel.

 

Adidas 100m,  

Darvis Patton, 32%

Travis Padgett, 29%

Richard Thompson, 14%

Leroy Dixon, 8%

Derrick Atkins, 4%

Dwight Thomas, 3%

DaBryan Blanton, 2%

Daniel Bailey, 2%

Marcus Brunson, 2%

Yohon Blake, 2%

Trell Kimmons, 1%

Jason Smoots, 1%

Brent Gray, 1%

Marc Burns, 1%

Aaron Armstrong, 0%

Steve Mullings, 0%

Analysis:  Once you correct for wind and altitude, you have everything you need to know.  So that makes it a toss-up between Patton and Daniel Bailey.  I'm picking Bailey.

 

1500m,  

Bernard Lagat, 80%

Lopez Lomong, 4%

Leonel Manzano, 4%

Chris Lukezic, 3%

David Krummenacker, 2%

Nate Brannen, 1%

Boaz Lalang, 1%

Rob Myers, 1%

Pablo Solares, 1%

Said Ahmed, 1%

Kevin Sullivan, 1%

William Leer, 1%

Evan Jager, 0%

Adam Perkins, 0%

Brandon Shaw, 0%

Jon Rankin, 0%

Analysis:  Lagat is so much better than anyone else in this race.

 

Nutrilite 200m,  

Wallace Spearmon, 40%

LaShawn Merritt, 29%

Xavier Carter, 17%

Shawn Crawford, 13%

Rodney Martin, 1%

Bernard Williams, 1%

Marvin Anderson, 0%

Damien White, 0%

Analysis:  This is a tough one.  Merritt has run extremely well so far this year.  This will be the season opener for Spearmon and Crawford.  The latter two are better than the former, but does their lack of racing give Merritt an edge?

 

Visa 400m,  

Jeremy Wariner, 92%

David Neville, 2%

Greg Nixon, 1%

Renny Quow, 1%

Ricardo Chambers, 1%

Reggie Witherspoon, 1%

Chris Brown, 1%

Andrew Rock, 1%

Andretti Bain, 0%

Lionel Larry, 0%

Analysis:  The only person in the world who can beat Wariner is running the 200 instead.  This is the safest pick in the whole meet.

 

5000m,  

Alistair Cragg, 42%

Ian Dobson, 14%

Dejen Gebremeskel, 12%

Bolota Asmerom, 8%

Scott Bauhs, 7%

Stephen Pifer, 5%

Josphat Boit, 2%

Jorge Torres, 1%

Seth Summerside, 1%

Luke Watson, 0%

Jordan Horn, 0%

Jon Pierce, 0%

Analysis:  So who is this Dejen Gebremeskel guy?  He won a bronze medal in the 5000 at last year's World Junior Championships, was part of Ethiopia's record-breaking team at last fall's Chiba ekiden, and sports a 13:08.96 PR...set at last year's Adidas Track Classic.  He's the best runner in the field.

 

800m

Hazel Clark, 38%

Kenia Sinclair, 16%

Alysia Johnson, 10%

Christin Wurth-Thomas, 8%

Nikeya Green, 3%

Rebecca Johnstone, 2%

Jesse Carlin, 1%

Kaite Waits, 1%

Maggie Vessey, 1%

Analysis:  If you saw the Penn Relays sprint medley, you know who to take.  Sinclair is much better than Clark.

 

400m

Natasha Hastings, 45%

Novlene Williams, 22%

Shana Cox, 13%

Shareese Woods, 9%

Shereefa Lloyd, 5%

Angel Perkins, 2%

Rosemarie Whyte, 2%

Sonita Sutherland, 2%

Patricia Hall, 1%

Analysis:  Novlene Williams.

 

1500m

Mestawot Tadesse, 15%

Erin Donohue, 14%

Lindsey Gallo, 11%

Jordan Hasay, 6%

Jenelle Deatherage, 5%

Amy Mortimer, 4%

Malindi Elmore, 1%

Dacia Perkins, 1%

Lauren Hagans, 0%

Hilary Sterlingwerff, 0%

Marina Muncan, 0%

Sherron Rhetta, 0%

Analysis:  How is Donohue doing after splitting with her coach?  Picking her has potential for disaster.  Not so for Tadesse.  Go with the Ethiopian.

 

Visa 100m Hurdles

Dawn Harper, 34%

Michelle Perry, 24%

Virginia Powell, 13%

Perdita Felicien, 12%

Candice Davis, 5%

Vonette Dixon, 5%

Nickiesha Wilson, 2%

Angela Whyte, 2%

Priscilla Lopes-Schliep, 2%

Analysis:  With Lolo Jones injured, Lopes-Schliep is probably the best hurdler in the world right now.

 

Pole Vault

Jenn Stuczynski, 87%

Stacy Dragila, 6%

Chelsea Johnson, 3%

Lacy Jansen, 3%

April Steiner-Bennett, 1%

Shuying Gao, 1%

Analysis:  Stuczynski.

 

100m

Carmelita Jeter, 18%

Muna Lee, 13%

Lauryn Williams, 12%

Torri Edwards, 9%

Marshevet Hooker, 8%

Miki Barber, 4%

Kelly-Ann Baptiste, 2%

Gloria Asumnu, 1%

Bianca Knight, 1%

Tahesia Harrigan, 0%

Aleen Bailey, 0%

Stephanie Durst, 0%

Schillonie Calvert, 0%

Oludamola Osayomi, 0%

Analysis:  Jeter will win this one.

 

Triple Jump

Erica McLain, 27%

Yvette Lewis, 17%

Crystal Manning, 17%

Shakeema Welsch, 12%

Toni Smith, 12%

Cortney Stafford, 8%

Blessing Ufodiama, 5%

Tabia Charles, 2%

Analysis:  McLain had a big wind-aided mark at Stanford a few weeks ago. I'm figuring this one to come down to her and Shakeema Welsch; I'm taking McLain.

 

Adidas 200m

Allyson Felix, 82%

Sanya Richards, 9%

Shalonda Solomon, 4%

LaShaunte'a Moore, 2%

Nina Gilbert, 1%

Virgil Hodge, 1%

Brooklyn Morris, 0%

Sherry Fletcher, 0%

Analysis:  What, you think anyone is going to pick against Allyson Felix?

 

Nutrilite 5000m

Shalane Flanagan, 53%

Ejegayehu Dibaba, 16%

Genzebe Dibaba, 11%

Sally Kipyego, 8%

Amy Hastings, 4%

Jen Rhines, 3%

Sentayehu Ejigu, 2%

Rachel Marchand, 2%

Sara Slattery, 1%

Aheza Kiros, 0%

Carrie Tollefson, 0%

Sara Hall, 0%

Analysis:  This is hard to read.  Flanagan isn't quite at the same level as a year ago, but I'm not really sure where Ejagayehu Dibaba is either.  But Flanagan is second at worst, so I'm going with her.

 

3000m Steeplechase

Anna Willard, 51%

Irene Kimaiyo, 11%

Lindsey Anderson, 9%

Delilah DiCrescenzo, 7%

Lisa Galaviz, 5%

Amanda Lorenzen, 5%

Mardrea Hyman, 4%

Lindsay Allen, 4%

Kara June, 0%

Analysis:  Willard hasn't run the steeple yet this year but has been breaking PRs all over the place in flat races.  Easy pick.

1 comment:

oasis44 said...

Sentayehu Ejigu defeated Flanagan at the Reebok Indoor Games in the 5000 this winter. As long as she's still in shape, I gotta believe she'll be in the mix too...