Boston predictions

The Science of Sport blog has made some rather detailed predictions about how the Boston Marathon will progress and eventually play out. How does this impartial South African see the Americans doing? Tucker picks Ryan Hall to break the course record but finish third, while he sees Kara Goucher pulling away at the very end to break the 24-year drought.

Tucker's predictions were a bit tongue-in-cheek, but if I had to guess which of the two is more likely to win I'd also go with Goucher. Legendary Greater Boston Track Club coach Bill Squires believes the course is tricky enough that it's hard to win on the first try, which both are attempting. Goucher has the benefit of training under Alberto Salazar, who did manage to win Boston in his first try (and had the benefit of growing up in The Hub).