IAAF Preview
Net Coverage:
WCSN, 6:00 PM (now!) and 5:45 AM
TV Coverage:
CBC, Noon-1:00 PM and 4:00-6:00 PM
NBC, 2:00-3:30 PM
Versus, 9:00-11:00 PM (repeats at 1:00 AM)
Final events:
6:00 PM, Men's 50k Walk (IAAF preview, T&FN discussion)
all day, Men's Decathlon (T&FN discussion)
6:30 AM, Men's Pole Vault (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
7:30 AM, Women's 5000 meters (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
9:05 AM, Women's 4x100 Relay (T&FN discussion)
9:20 AM, Men's 4x100 Relay (IAAF preview, T&FN discussion)
Friday, August 31, 2007
Day 7 Review
Results
IAAF Review
Sports Illustrated Review
USATF Recap
USA Today Notebook
My thoughts on the seventh day of the World Championships...
Somehow I didn't see the fact that the Versus coverage began at 6:00 instead of 7:00, and missed an entire hour. So as of right now I can only really address the last half of the broadcast. They a pretty good job with what I saw with one exception: they never even mentioned the fact that Andrey Krauchenko false-started out of the decathlon.
Event-by-even reactions...
Women's 20k Walk: I do like all the events, and I'll even take the effort to watch this one when I can. But it's not like I feel cheated because I missed it. Another Russian win.
Women's 1500m semis: One favorite won her semi, the other favorites went 1-2 in theirs. Expect them to win the medals.
Men's 800m semis: The semis did not go according to form. While favorite Borzakovskiy won his, the others went to Yego of Kenya and Reed of Canada, and Ramzi and Kamel are out. If you're willing to take a risk in the fantasy league, Reed could prove worthy.
Women's Triple Jump: A big upset--a Lebedeva victory in this event was billed as one of the most sure things of the meet. In fact, I made her one of my captains in the fantasy league, so I'm double-happy that she already won the long jump.
Women's Javelin: Another upset; Obergfoll got her first loss of the year, although she almost pulled it out on her final throw. Once again, results of the qualifying rounds predicted the final result (champion Špotáková won her qualifying group while Obergfoll did not). File this knowledge away for future fantasy-league domination.
Men's Decathlon: When I made my multis picks a week or so ago, I said I really didn't believe Clay could do anything considering that he's only finished one decathlon in the past two years. He went out hurt again. Upstart Maurice Smith is leading for now, but get prepared to sing "Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan, greatest country in the world..."
Women's 200m final: Allyson Felix is having a great year, and I'd have to say she's got the inside track on Athlete of the Year. 21.81 is seriously moving--it's the second-best best mark of the last ten years (save a few by Marion "What? Me BALCO?" Jones). Richards had an uncharacteristically poor race--I hope this isn't a bad omen for the 4x400.
Men's 400m final: USA sweep, led by two PRs. Wariner ran a dominant homestretch to kick all asses. You expected something different?
Men's 110m Hurdles: First and second went according to form; Liu is unquestionably the dominant hurdler of our time. Yesterday I said Payne could surprise, and I was right.
IAAF Review
Sports Illustrated Review
USATF Recap
USA Today Notebook
My thoughts on the seventh day of the World Championships...
Somehow I didn't see the fact that the Versus coverage began at 6:00 instead of 7:00, and missed an entire hour. So as of right now I can only really address the last half of the broadcast. They a pretty good job with what I saw with one exception: they never even mentioned the fact that Andrey Krauchenko false-started out of the decathlon.
Event-by-even reactions...
Women's 20k Walk: I do like all the events, and I'll even take the effort to watch this one when I can. But it's not like I feel cheated because I missed it. Another Russian win.
Women's 1500m semis: One favorite won her semi, the other favorites went 1-2 in theirs. Expect them to win the medals.
Men's 800m semis: The semis did not go according to form. While favorite Borzakovskiy won his, the others went to Yego of Kenya and Reed of Canada, and Ramzi and Kamel are out. If you're willing to take a risk in the fantasy league, Reed could prove worthy.
Women's Triple Jump: A big upset--a Lebedeva victory in this event was billed as one of the most sure things of the meet. In fact, I made her one of my captains in the fantasy league, so I'm double-happy that she already won the long jump.
Women's Javelin: Another upset; Obergfoll got her first loss of the year, although she almost pulled it out on her final throw. Once again, results of the qualifying rounds predicted the final result (champion Špotáková won her qualifying group while Obergfoll did not). File this knowledge away for future fantasy-league domination.
Men's Decathlon: When I made my multis picks a week or so ago, I said I really didn't believe Clay could do anything considering that he's only finished one decathlon in the past two years. He went out hurt again. Upstart Maurice Smith is leading for now, but get prepared to sing "Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan, greatest country in the world..."
Women's 200m final: Allyson Felix is having a great year, and I'd have to say she's got the inside track on Athlete of the Year. 21.81 is seriously moving--it's the second-best best mark of the last ten years (save a few by Marion "What? Me BALCO?" Jones). Richards had an uncharacteristically poor race--I hope this isn't a bad omen for the 4x400.
Men's 400m final: USA sweep, led by two PRs. Wariner ran a dominant homestretch to kick all asses. You expected something different?
Men's 110m Hurdles: First and second went according to form; Liu is unquestionably the dominant hurdler of our time. Yesterday I said Payne could surprise, and I was right.
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Day 7 Preview
IAAF Preview
Net Coverage:
WCSN, 9:00 PM (now!) and 5:30 AM
CBC, 6:30 AM
TV Coverage:
Versus, 7:00-9:00 PM tomorrow(reruns at 1:00 AM, 9:00 AM and 3:00 PM Friday)
Final events:
7:00 PM, Women's 20k Walk (IAAF preview, T&FN discussion)
all day, Men's Decathlon (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
6:30 AM, Women's Triple Jump (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
7:40 AM, Women's Javelin Throw (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
8:15 AM, Women's 200 meters (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
9:05 AM, Men's 400 meters (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
9:20 AM, Men's 110m Hurdles (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
Net Coverage:
WCSN, 9:00 PM (now!) and 5:30 AM
CBC, 6:30 AM
TV Coverage:
Versus, 7:00-9:00 PM tomorrow(reruns at 1:00 AM, 9:00 AM and 3:00 PM Friday)
Final events:
7:00 PM, Women's 20k Walk (IAAF preview, T&FN discussion)
all day, Men's Decathlon (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
6:30 AM, Women's Triple Jump (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
7:40 AM, Women's Javelin Throw (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
8:15 AM, Women's 200 meters (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
9:05 AM, Men's 400 meters (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
9:20 AM, Men's 110m Hurdles (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
Day 6 Review
Results
IAAF Review
USATF Recap
USA Today Notebook
My thoughts on the sixth day of the World Championships...
Even though Versus/NBC is still scared of putting meaningful field-event stats on screen, they used the read "leader line" extremely well in tonight's long jump competition. But what about the stinkin' hammer throw?
Event-by-event reactions...
Women's Hammer final: Well, I'd like to have seen it.
Women's 400H final: I thought Nosova was the favorite going in to the meet, but I had enough confidence in Rawlinson to put her on my fantasy league team right from the start. Not only did she come through, but Jesien (a late pickup) ran a gutsy homestretch to pick up bronze.
Men's Long Jump: The event of the night for sure. My silver-medal pick, Andrew Howe, took the lead with his last jump. Then my gold-medal pick, Irving Saladino, came through on his final jump for the win and a new national record.
Men's 110H semis: The three favorites (Xiang, Robles, Trammell) all ran well. Wild card David Payne ran nearly as well; he could be a real surprise tomorrow.
Women's 200m semis: The favorites all came through.
Men's 200m final: Tyson Gay has raised our expectations so much that 19.76 doesn't seem that quick for him anymore.
IAAF Review
USATF Recap
USA Today Notebook
My thoughts on the sixth day of the World Championships...
Even though Versus/NBC is still scared of putting meaningful field-event stats on screen, they used the read "leader line" extremely well in tonight's long jump competition. But what about the stinkin' hammer throw?
Event-by-event reactions...
Women's Hammer final: Well, I'd like to have seen it.
Women's 400H final: I thought Nosova was the favorite going in to the meet, but I had enough confidence in Rawlinson to put her on my fantasy league team right from the start. Not only did she come through, but Jesien (a late pickup) ran a gutsy homestretch to pick up bronze.
Men's Long Jump: The event of the night for sure. My silver-medal pick, Andrew Howe, took the lead with his last jump. Then my gold-medal pick, Irving Saladino, came through on his final jump for the win and a new national record.
Men's 110H semis: The three favorites (Xiang, Robles, Trammell) all ran well. Wild card David Payne ran nearly as well; he could be a real surprise tomorrow.
Women's 200m semis: The favorites all came through.
Men's 200m final: Tyson Gay has raised our expectations so much that 19.76 doesn't seem that quick for him anymore.
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Day 6 Preview
IAAF Preview
Net Coverage:
WCSN, 6:10 AM
CBC, 6:30 AM
TV Coverage:
Versus, 7:00-9:00 PM tomorrow
(reruns at 1:00 AM, 9:00 AM and 3:00 PM Friday)
Final events:
6:30 AM, Women's Hammer Throw (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
7:25 AM, Women's 400m Hurdles (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
7:40 AM, Men's Long Jump (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
9:20 AM, Men's 200 meters (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
Net Coverage:
WCSN, 6:10 AM
CBC, 6:30 AM
TV Coverage:
Versus, 7:00-9:00 PM tomorrow
(reruns at 1:00 AM, 9:00 AM and 3:00 PM Friday)
Final events:
6:30 AM, Women's Hammer Throw (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
7:25 AM, Women's 400m Hurdles (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
7:40 AM, Men's Long Jump (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
9:20 AM, Men's 200 meters (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
Day 5 Review
Results
IAAF Review
Sports Illustrated Review
USATF Recap
USA Today Notebook
My thoughts on the fifth day of the World Championships...
Versus managed to show us a decent amount of a semifinal in the women's 5000 meters and ended their telecast early, but couldn't find time to show us the women's discus final. Naughty, naughty!
Event-by-event reactions...
Men's High Jump: Shocker. Donald Thomas has been a high jumper for less than two years and is now a world champion.
Women's Discus: Un-shocker. Heavily favored Franka Dietszch won her third world championship on her first throw.
Women's 100m Hurdles: Michelle Perry won a close one.
Men's 400m semis: USA looks to sweep.
Women's 400 meters: I thought Novlene Williams was the best runner in the race, and she might have been if not for an overly aggressive early pace. Britain's one-two sweep was truly unexpected.
Men's 200m semis: According to form. Bolt and Spearmon are battling...for second.
Men's 1500 meters: The message board must have every English-speaking knucklehead on earth chiming in. In short, Webb doesn't have any race-strategy subtlety or ability to think on his feet plus he's a little short in sprint speed. The exact opposite is true of Lagat and always has been. Webb is going to beat himself up over this (with plenty of help from the press and the peanut gallery) but really, he just has to figure out how to use his abilities to his benefit. It took El Guerrouj a while to make it work, too.
P.S. This is probably the biggest single news item for US distance running in 20 or 25 years.
P.P.S. The whole Ramzi thing is just wierd. He doesn't race all year long and then comes up silver at the Worlds. What the heck is that?
IAAF Review
Sports Illustrated Review
USATF Recap
USA Today Notebook
My thoughts on the fifth day of the World Championships...
Versus managed to show us a decent amount of a semifinal in the women's 5000 meters and ended their telecast early, but couldn't find time to show us the women's discus final. Naughty, naughty!
Event-by-event reactions...
Men's High Jump: Shocker. Donald Thomas has been a high jumper for less than two years and is now a world champion.
Women's Discus: Un-shocker. Heavily favored Franka Dietszch won her third world championship on her first throw.
Women's 100m Hurdles: Michelle Perry won a close one.
Men's 400m semis: USA looks to sweep.
Women's 400 meters: I thought Novlene Williams was the best runner in the race, and she might have been if not for an overly aggressive early pace. Britain's one-two sweep was truly unexpected.
Men's 200m semis: According to form. Bolt and Spearmon are battling...for second.
Men's 1500 meters: The message board must have every English-speaking knucklehead on earth chiming in. In short, Webb doesn't have any race-strategy subtlety or ability to think on his feet plus he's a little short in sprint speed. The exact opposite is true of Lagat and always has been. Webb is going to beat himself up over this (with plenty of help from the press and the peanut gallery) but really, he just has to figure out how to use his abilities to his benefit. It took El Guerrouj a while to make it work, too.
P.S. This is probably the biggest single news item for US distance running in 20 or 25 years.
P.P.S. The whole Ramzi thing is just wierd. He doesn't race all year long and then comes up silver at the Worlds. What the heck is that?
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Day 5 Preview
IAAF Preview
Net coverage:
WCSN, 9:00 PM and 6:15 AM
CBC, 6:30 AM
TV coverage:
7:00-9:00 PM tomorrow on Versus
repeats Thursday at 1:00 AM, 9:00 AM and 3:00 PM
Final events:
6:35 AM, Men's High Jump (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
6:45 AM, Women's Discus Throw (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
8:05 AM, Women's 100m Hurdles (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
8:50 AM, Women's 400 meters (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
9:05 AM, Men's 1500 meters (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
Net coverage:
WCSN, 9:00 PM and 6:15 AM
CBC, 6:30 AM
TV coverage:
7:00-9:00 PM tomorrow on Versus
repeats Thursday at 1:00 AM, 9:00 AM and 3:00 PM
Final events:
6:35 AM, Men's High Jump (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
6:45 AM, Women's Discus Throw (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
8:05 AM, Women's 100m Hurdles (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
8:50 AM, Women's 400 meters (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
9:05 AM, Men's 1500 meters (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
Day 4 Review
Results
IAAF review
Sports Illustrated review
USATF report
USA Today notebook
My thoughts on the fourth day of the World Championships...
Why, oh why can we never get an on-screen version of the chart in the high jump and pole vault? And why is it that the conventional wisdom states an eight-minute race is too long to hold attention, but ten minutes of jaw-flapping prior to a hurdle final is OK?
Event-by-event reactions...
Women's Pole Vault: Isi wins as expected. For it starting so promising, Stuczynski is having a very difficult year.
Men's Discus Throw: Shocker! Alekna bombs! I suppose it had to happen sometime, but why now? (If you couldn't guess, he was my one of fantasy league team captains.)
Women's 100H semis: Perry and Kallur, the summer season's two leading hurdlers, won the two semis with Perry's performance making her a heavy favorite.
Men's 200m quarters: Bolt looked very good. Gay looked great.
Men's Steeplechase: Kenyan sweep. Hardly a surprise, except that the favorite ended up second.
Women's Long Jump: Russian sweep. The same.
Women's 800 meters: The French would use the term "s'imposer" to describe Jepkosgei's semi and final: she imposed herself on the competition. Benhassi ran a smart race for second.
Women's 400H semis: Rawlinson on Nosova won their semis with the two best times, which is what you'd expect. Somewhat of a surprise was Jesien winning her semi in the next best time. Need a Pole for the fantasy league?
Men's 400H finals: Clement has been known for tremendous potential and inconsistency. The word potential implies opportunities unfulfilled. I'd still call him inconsistent--this was his only win of the year so far--but for once you can definitely say he lived up to his abilities.
IAAF review
Sports Illustrated review
USATF report
USA Today notebook
My thoughts on the fourth day of the World Championships...
Why, oh why can we never get an on-screen version of the chart in the high jump and pole vault? And why is it that the conventional wisdom states an eight-minute race is too long to hold attention, but ten minutes of jaw-flapping prior to a hurdle final is OK?
Event-by-event reactions...
Women's Pole Vault: Isi wins as expected. For it starting so promising, Stuczynski is having a very difficult year.
Men's Discus Throw: Shocker! Alekna bombs! I suppose it had to happen sometime, but why now? (If you couldn't guess, he was my one of fantasy league team captains.)
Women's 100H semis: Perry and Kallur, the summer season's two leading hurdlers, won the two semis with Perry's performance making her a heavy favorite.
Men's 200m quarters: Bolt looked very good. Gay looked great.
Men's Steeplechase: Kenyan sweep. Hardly a surprise, except that the favorite ended up second.
Women's Long Jump: Russian sweep. The same.
Women's 800 meters: The French would use the term "s'imposer" to describe Jepkosgei's semi and final: she imposed herself on the competition. Benhassi ran a smart race for second.
Women's 400H semis: Rawlinson on Nosova won their semis with the two best times, which is what you'd expect. Somewhat of a surprise was Jesien winning her semi in the next best time. Need a Pole for the fantasy league?
Men's 400H finals: Clement has been known for tremendous potential and inconsistency. The word potential implies opportunities unfulfilled. I'd still call him inconsistent--this was his only win of the year so far--but for once you can definitely say he lived up to his abilities.
Monday, August 27, 2007
Day 4 Preview
IAAF preview
Net coverage
WCSN, 9:00 PM and 6:00 AM
CBC, 6:30 AM
TV Coverage on Versus:
Day 3 reruns at 1:00 AM, 9:00 AM and 3:00 PM
Day 4 coverage at 7:00-9:00 PM
Final events:
6:30 AM, Women's Pole Vault (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
6:30 AM, Men's Discus Throw (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
7:50 AM, Women's Long Jump (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
7:55 AM, Men's Steeplechase (IAAF preview, Let's Run preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
8:20 AM, Women's 800 meters (IAAF preview, Let's Run preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
9:20 AM, Men's 400m Hurdles (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
Net coverage
WCSN, 9:00 PM and 6:00 AM
CBC, 6:30 AM
TV Coverage on Versus:
Day 3 reruns at 1:00 AM, 9:00 AM and 3:00 PM
Day 4 coverage at 7:00-9:00 PM
Final events:
6:30 AM, Women's Pole Vault (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
6:30 AM, Men's Discus Throw (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
7:50 AM, Women's Long Jump (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
7:55 AM, Men's Steeplechase (IAAF preview, Let's Run preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
8:20 AM, Women's 800 meters (IAAF preview, Let's Run preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
9:20 AM, Men's 400m Hurdles (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
Day 3 Review
Results
IAAF Review
Sports Illustrated review
USATF report
USA Today notebook
My thoughts on the third day of the World Championships...
It's really frustrating that Versus makes us wait until 7 PM to see events that completed almost ten hours previously. On the other hand, the coverage was about as good as this crew has ever done. The men's hammer and triple jumps got great coverage; the 10k wasn't given short shrift; and they conveyed the tension of the women's 100 meters.
Event-by event reactions...
Men's Hammer final: No, Murofushi did not deserve the pre-meet hype he was given. The medals went pretty much according to the form of the season so far.
Women's Steeple final: This evolving event looks like it will be Russia versus Kenya for the forseeable future.
Men's Triple Jump: They said this was wide-open and they were right. Win or lose, Gregorio is fun to watch.
Men's 1500m semis: Lagat is a cool customer and always has been; Webb looked shellshocked. I don't want to jump on the anti-Webb bandwagon (I'm sure it's been going for a good 13 hours now) but it seems as though he's suffered from a crisis of confidence ever since his lone track season in Ann Arbor went poorly. His over-celebration after major victories this year struck me less as venting his frustrations of the last few years and more as windows into his thoughts--and those thoughts are "this is an upset because I'm not the top dog" instead of "I'm the best fucker here and all of you can kiss my ass". Champions absolutely must have the latter going through their minds.
Oh, and there's no freakin' way Rashid Ramzi should be able to race like this in his first meet of the year.
Women's 400m semis: This looks wide-open, with the strong possibility that Ana Guevara will win the final. If you're looking for a pick-up in the fantasy league you might give her a shot.
Men's 10k final: Let's Run called Sihine the most underappreciated runner in the world. They were right. For a while there I thought he might pull it off.
Women's 100 meters: Hey, what is this? I wanted a close race! Yikes. But I called it, didn't I? And another 100 points into my fantasy league totals.
IAAF Review
Sports Illustrated review
USATF report
USA Today notebook
My thoughts on the third day of the World Championships...
It's really frustrating that Versus makes us wait until 7 PM to see events that completed almost ten hours previously. On the other hand, the coverage was about as good as this crew has ever done. The men's hammer and triple jumps got great coverage; the 10k wasn't given short shrift; and they conveyed the tension of the women's 100 meters.
Event-by event reactions...
Men's Hammer final: No, Murofushi did not deserve the pre-meet hype he was given. The medals went pretty much according to the form of the season so far.
Women's Steeple final: This evolving event looks like it will be Russia versus Kenya for the forseeable future.
Men's Triple Jump: They said this was wide-open and they were right. Win or lose, Gregorio is fun to watch.
Men's 1500m semis: Lagat is a cool customer and always has been; Webb looked shellshocked. I don't want to jump on the anti-Webb bandwagon (I'm sure it's been going for a good 13 hours now) but it seems as though he's suffered from a crisis of confidence ever since his lone track season in Ann Arbor went poorly. His over-celebration after major victories this year struck me less as venting his frustrations of the last few years and more as windows into his thoughts--and those thoughts are "this is an upset because I'm not the top dog" instead of "I'm the best fucker here and all of you can kiss my ass". Champions absolutely must have the latter going through their minds.
Oh, and there's no freakin' way Rashid Ramzi should be able to race like this in his first meet of the year.
Women's 400m semis: This looks wide-open, with the strong possibility that Ana Guevara will win the final. If you're looking for a pick-up in the fantasy league you might give her a shot.
Men's 10k final: Let's Run called Sihine the most underappreciated runner in the world. They were right. For a while there I thought he might pull it off.
Women's 100 meters: Hey, what is this? I wanted a close race! Yikes. But I called it, didn't I? And another 100 points into my fantasy league totals.
Sunday, August 26, 2007
Day 3 Preview
IAAF preview
Net coverage:
WCSN, 9:00 PM and 6:10 AM
CBC, 6:30 AM
TV coverage:
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 9:00-11:00 AM, 3:00-5:00 PM, 7:00-9:00 PM
(late-night will likely be a rerun of today's broadcast)
Final events:
6:30 AM, Men's Hammer Throw (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
7:20 AM, Women's Steeplechase (IAAF preview, Let's Run preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
7:30 AM, Men's Triple Jump (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
8:40 AM, Men's 10,000 meters (Let's Run preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
9:20 AM, Women's 100 meters (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
Net coverage:
WCSN, 9:00 PM and 6:10 AM
CBC, 6:30 AM
TV coverage:
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 9:00-11:00 AM, 3:00-5:00 PM, 7:00-9:00 PM
(late-night will likely be a rerun of today's broadcast)
Final events:
6:30 AM, Men's Hammer Throw (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
7:20 AM, Women's Steeplechase (IAAF preview, Let's Run preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
7:30 AM, Men's Triple Jump (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
8:40 AM, Men's 10,000 meters (Let's Run preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
9:20 AM, Women's 100 meters (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
Day 2 Review
Results
IAAF review
USATF report
Sports Illustrated review
USA Today notebook
My thoughts on the second day of the World Championships...
Yesterday I ran down CBC's announcers a bit. Today I want to talk up their producers and program directors. While their on-air talent are a little bland and and sometimes less than brilliant (today Whitman called a 20.54-meter throw a "world-leading time"), the network does a great job of simply putting a lot on the screen. They got around to covering the women's 10k today and showed us just what happened to Turinesh Dibaba (at 6k she was tripped, partly lost her shoe and put it back on). Over the heptathlon's two days they gave deeper coverage which builds tension a little more like actually being there.
Canada's lack of metric-phobia allows CBC to make good use of the IAAF's field-event feed but NBC/Versus is apparently terrified of anything with a decimal and avoids the host feed like the plague. Today, NBC's coverage of the women's shot was limited to a single put, while CBC gave the event the attention it deserved.
Overall grades: CBC gets an A- from shot put extra credit, NBC gets a B- for blowing off the assignment.
Individual event reactions...
Men's 20k Walk: Umm, you were on the edge of your seat for this one, right? I feel like a sucker for missing out on an Ecuadorean gold medal in the fantasy league.
Women's Heptathlon: The naysayers thought Kluft might lose and certainly didn't think she'd break 7000 points, let alone her European record. Whoops.
Men's 400H semis: Not going according to form. Bershawn Jackson doesn't make the final, Marek Plawgo and Adam Kunkel lead late in their races. Now the final will be a two-man show, James Carter versus Felix Sanchez.
Women's 800m semis: T&FN favorite Olga Kotlyarova did not look like a champ, finishing second in her heat and then lying down on the track to gasp for air. Janeth Jepkosgei did look like one, running a world leader and calmly walking into the mixed zone as if she'd just gone for a jog in the park. Since I've already got a Kenyan in the fantasy league plus Maria Mutola , if I were looking for an athlete in this race to pick up I'd go with Hasna Benhassi.
Men's 100m: Thrilling. They say first and second in the final are almost always the two semifinal winners, and when Atkins beat Powell in their semi I thought that rule would go out the window. I'll let the video do the talking:
Women's Shot Put: Doubtless the event of the day. First off, heavy favorite Nadyesa Ostapchuk barely got into the final. Then she took the lead on her first throw, then fouled on three of her next four. Valerie Vili moved up to second on her fifth-round throw, then unleashed the world leader on her final attempt. Ostapchuk countered with her best of the year and came up just six centimeters short. What I found most interesting was that the other competitors who appeared on screen (Nadine Kleinert and Chiara Rosa, I think) looked truly excited that Vili won...or maybe that Ostapchuk lost? I don't know, and maybe I'm reading too much into this.
IAAF review
USATF report
Sports Illustrated review
USA Today notebook
My thoughts on the second day of the World Championships...
Yesterday I ran down CBC's announcers a bit. Today I want to talk up their producers and program directors. While their on-air talent are a little bland and and sometimes less than brilliant (today Whitman called a 20.54-meter throw a "world-leading time"), the network does a great job of simply putting a lot on the screen. They got around to covering the women's 10k today and showed us just what happened to Turinesh Dibaba (at 6k she was tripped, partly lost her shoe and put it back on). Over the heptathlon's two days they gave deeper coverage which builds tension a little more like actually being there.
Canada's lack of metric-phobia allows CBC to make good use of the IAAF's field-event feed but NBC/Versus is apparently terrified of anything with a decimal and avoids the host feed like the plague. Today, NBC's coverage of the women's shot was limited to a single put, while CBC gave the event the attention it deserved.
Overall grades: CBC gets an A- from shot put extra credit, NBC gets a B- for blowing off the assignment.
Individual event reactions...
Men's 20k Walk: Umm, you were on the edge of your seat for this one, right? I feel like a sucker for missing out on an Ecuadorean gold medal in the fantasy league.
Women's Heptathlon: The naysayers thought Kluft might lose and certainly didn't think she'd break 7000 points, let alone her European record. Whoops.
Men's 400H semis: Not going according to form. Bershawn Jackson doesn't make the final, Marek Plawgo and Adam Kunkel lead late in their races. Now the final will be a two-man show, James Carter versus Felix Sanchez.
Women's 800m semis: T&FN favorite Olga Kotlyarova did not look like a champ, finishing second in her heat and then lying down on the track to gasp for air. Janeth Jepkosgei did look like one, running a world leader and calmly walking into the mixed zone as if she'd just gone for a jog in the park. Since I've already got a Kenyan in the fantasy league plus Maria Mutola , if I were looking for an athlete in this race to pick up I'd go with Hasna Benhassi.
Men's 100m: Thrilling. They say first and second in the final are almost always the two semifinal winners, and when Atkins beat Powell in their semi I thought that rule would go out the window. I'll let the video do the talking:
Women's Shot Put: Doubtless the event of the day. First off, heavy favorite Nadyesa Ostapchuk barely got into the final. Then she took the lead on her first throw, then fouled on three of her next four. Valerie Vili moved up to second on her fifth-round throw, then unleashed the world leader on her final attempt. Ostapchuk countered with her best of the year and came up just six centimeters short. What I found most interesting was that the other competitors who appeared on screen (Nadine Kleinert and Chiara Rosa, I think) looked truly excited that Vili won...or maybe that Ostapchuk lost? I don't know, and maybe I'm reading too much into this.
Saturday, August 25, 2007
Fantasy Leagues
My fantasy football team just did our online draft for the upcoming season. While waiting for it to get started, I fiddled with my IAAF fantasy team.
If you don't know what's going on, here's the contest in a nutshell. You pick 20 athletes (ten men, ten women) from any events and one team in each relay and get points from their place (best single result from athletes who double). You name one male and one female as "team captains" and their points are doubled. The kicker? The athletes have to be from 20 different countries, the relays from four different countries.
You can drop an athlete and replace him/her once per day. You do not retain points from dropped athletes, and your replacement's points can only come after you pick them up.
The IAAF is giving out a free trip to a World Athletics Tour event to the overall winner. You can also set up "buddy leagues" for fun just like thousands of Americans do with NFL fantasy leagues.
The way the contest is set up, it pays off to know what the schedule is and notice someone who looks like a potential winner. For example, I dropped Rutger Smith after his fourth-place finish in the shot and replaced him with Felix Sanchez. I don't think Derrick Atkins has any real chance of winning the 100, but if someone breaks down he might get a silver. Otherwise, he's on the trashheap tommorrow in favor of someone else, like maybe Rashid Ramzi.
If you don't know what's going on, here's the contest in a nutshell. You pick 20 athletes (ten men, ten women) from any events and one team in each relay and get points from their place (best single result from athletes who double). You name one male and one female as "team captains" and their points are doubled. The kicker? The athletes have to be from 20 different countries, the relays from four different countries.
You can drop an athlete and replace him/her once per day. You do not retain points from dropped athletes, and your replacement's points can only come after you pick them up.
The IAAF is giving out a free trip to a World Athletics Tour event to the overall winner. You can also set up "buddy leagues" for fun just like thousands of Americans do with NFL fantasy leagues.
The way the contest is set up, it pays off to know what the schedule is and notice someone who looks like a potential winner. For example, I dropped Rutger Smith after his fourth-place finish in the shot and replaced him with Felix Sanchez. I don't think Derrick Atkins has any real chance of winning the 100, but if someone breaks down he might get a silver. Otherwise, he's on the trashheap tommorrow in favor of someone else, like maybe Rashid Ramzi.
Day 2 Preview
IAAF Preview
Sports Illustrated meet preview
TV Coverage:
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM
NBC, 12:30-2:30 PM
CBC, 3:00-5:00 PM
Versus, 6:00-8:00 PM
Net Coverage:
WCSN, live now and at 4:15 AM
CBC, 6:30-9:30 AM
Final events:
7:00 PM, Men's 20k Walk (IAAF preview, T&FN discussion) sorry,it's already over!
all day, Women's Heptathlon (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
6:45 AM, Women's Shot Put (my picks, T&FN discussion)
9:20 AM, Men's 100 meters (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
Sports Illustrated meet preview
TV Coverage:
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM
NBC, 12:30-2:30 PM
CBC, 3:00-5:00 PM
Versus, 6:00-8:00 PM
Net Coverage:
WCSN, live now and at 4:15 AM
CBC, 6:30-9:30 AM
Final events:
7:00 PM, Men's 20k Walk (IAAF preview, T&FN discussion) sorry,it's already over!
all day, Women's Heptathlon (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
6:45 AM, Women's Shot Put (my picks, T&FN discussion)
9:20 AM, Men's 100 meters (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN discussion)
Day 1 Review
Results
IAAF highlights
USA Today Worlds notebook
My thoughts on the first day of the World Championships...
In total I watched 5 hours of TV coverage but didn't have the opportunity to see anything live on WCSN.
I'm not a big fan of CBC's announcers; Don Whitman's inability to pronounce anyone's name just turns me off, and Michael Smith's thick-headed comment that the marathoners should be able to run fast because of a flat course and low elevation but in spite of a heat index of 87 didn't go over so well either. But CBC's metric-friendliness does make some of their coverage better.
Unlike CBC's hours of marathon coverage, Versus gave the event less than three minutes. But this did free up time to give us superior coverage just about everywhere else. CBC didn't show the women's 10k at all whereas Versus gave it the air time it deserved. And Versus muzzled Carol Lewis while prominently featuring Ato Boldon.
Overall grades: CBC gets a C, Versus gets a B+.
Individual event reactions...
Men's Marathon: Worlds marathons tend to be wide-open, so the fact that a Kenyan won is hardly a big surprise. But I thought the one area of the world that had no chance at all due to the heat was northern/western Europe. Then Viktor Rothlin of Switzerland ran a brilliant race to come up with third (and damn near second).
Women's Heptathlon: Kluft is still the queen. The competition isn't over, but she's leading with her best event up next.
Men's 1500m heats: Kiprop looks dangerous and so does Ramzi.
Women's 800m heats: No clues here on who's looking the best right now.
Men's 400H heats: Felix Sanchez is back from the dead. T&FN put him tenth on the formchart but after that heat he has to be considered a real threat to win.
Men's 100m heats / quarters: Boldon said Gay must start well. If he does, I still say he's far superior to Powell. But those first two rounds make me nervous.
Men's Shot: Hoffa is one of my very favorite athletes, so I was happy to see him win. I'll have to drop Rutger Smith from my fantasy team after two athletes I underestimated beat him.
Women's 10k: The winner was no surprise, although she did it in a more interesting fashion than she wanted. The stunner was Kara Goucher in third, probably the story of the day from a US perspective. SI's Tim Layden weighs in.
IAAF highlights
USA Today Worlds notebook
My thoughts on the first day of the World Championships...
In total I watched 5 hours of TV coverage but didn't have the opportunity to see anything live on WCSN.
I'm not a big fan of CBC's announcers; Don Whitman's inability to pronounce anyone's name just turns me off, and Michael Smith's thick-headed comment that the marathoners should be able to run fast because of a flat course and low elevation but in spite of a heat index of 87 didn't go over so well either. But CBC's metric-friendliness does make some of their coverage better.
Unlike CBC's hours of marathon coverage, Versus gave the event less than three minutes. But this did free up time to give us superior coverage just about everywhere else. CBC didn't show the women's 10k at all whereas Versus gave it the air time it deserved. And Versus muzzled Carol Lewis while prominently featuring Ato Boldon.
Overall grades: CBC gets a C, Versus gets a B+.
Individual event reactions...
Men's Marathon: Worlds marathons tend to be wide-open, so the fact that a Kenyan won is hardly a big surprise. But I thought the one area of the world that had no chance at all due to the heat was northern/western Europe. Then Viktor Rothlin of Switzerland ran a brilliant race to come up with third (and damn near second).
Women's Heptathlon: Kluft is still the queen. The competition isn't over, but she's leading with her best event up next.
Men's 1500m heats: Kiprop looks dangerous and so does Ramzi.
Women's 800m heats: No clues here on who's looking the best right now.
Men's 400H heats: Felix Sanchez is back from the dead. T&FN put him tenth on the formchart but after that heat he has to be considered a real threat to win.
Men's 100m heats / quarters: Boldon said Gay must start well. If he does, I still say he's far superior to Powell. But those first two rounds make me nervous.
Men's Shot: Hoffa is one of my very favorite athletes, so I was happy to see him win. I'll have to drop Rutger Smith from my fantasy team after two athletes I underestimated beat him.
Women's 10k: The winner was no surprise, although she did it in a more interesting fashion than she wanted. The stunner was Kara Goucher in third, probably the story of the day from a US perspective. SI's Tim Layden weighs in.
Friday, August 24, 2007
Sports and Global Warming
Dave Ungrady at WCSN recently reported that the 2012 London Olympic organizers plan to make their games the most environmentally friendly in history. While that's not a particularly high hurdle to get over, it appears that it's not mere rhetoric but a dedicated effort; organizers are working with the World Wildlife Fund to get it done. This decision, first made two years ago, spurred the IAAF into creating its Green Project. The real leader in all of this was Germany's Green Goal, part of the 2006 World Cup.
Contrast this with next year's Olympics in Beijing, which just might be the dirtiest in history. According to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, China has now become the world's leader in CO2 production.
I don't think I need to stress the importance of actually doing something. Even in the US, we've reached the tipping point in public opinion; a local car-dealer commercial series noted for making fun of politicians now lampoons Bush's refusal to admit that humans are the cause of global warming.
Contrast this with next year's Olympics in Beijing, which just might be the dirtiest in history. According to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, China has now become the world's leader in CO2 production.
I don't think I need to stress the importance of actually doing something. Even in the US, we've reached the tipping point in public opinion; a local car-dealer commercial series noted for making fun of politicians now lampoons Bush's refusal to admit that humans are the cause of global warming.
Day One Preview
IAAF preview
The first event, the men's marathon, begins at 6:00 PM (Eastern) today. I guess if you don't live in the Eastern time zone, you're used to figuring out the offset--I'm not, and even though I have a mathematics degree I always screw it up. Thank you, World Clock!
Net coverage: WCSN at 6 PM tonight and 5:45 AM tomorrow
TV coverage: CBC 3:00-6:00 PM tomorrow; Versus 6:00-8:00 PM tomorrow
Final events:
6:00 PM: Men's marathon (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN preview, Let's Run preview)
all day: Women's Heptathlon, day one (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN preview)
7:40 AM: Men's shot put (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN preview)
8:50 AM: Women's 10,000m (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN preview, Let's Run preview)
I'm going to do a write-up on a more or less daily basis, but the timing of this meet couldn't be worse for me. Tomorrow is my team's first meet, tonight's pre-meet dinner begins at 6:00, and the first (and therefore busiest) week of school begins Monday. I won't get any analysis up until 6:00 PM at the earliest, and maybe as late as 10:00.
The first event, the men's marathon, begins at 6:00 PM (Eastern) today. I guess if you don't live in the Eastern time zone, you're used to figuring out the offset--I'm not, and even though I have a mathematics degree I always screw it up. Thank you, World Clock!
Net coverage: WCSN at 6 PM tonight and 5:45 AM tomorrow
TV coverage: CBC 3:00-6:00 PM tomorrow; Versus 6:00-8:00 PM tomorrow
Final events:
6:00 PM: Men's marathon (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN preview, Let's Run preview)
all day: Women's Heptathlon, day one (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN preview)
7:40 AM: Men's shot put (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN preview)
8:50 AM: Women's 10,000m (IAAF preview, my picks, T&FN preview, Let's Run preview)
I'm going to do a write-up on a more or less daily basis, but the timing of this meet couldn't be worse for me. Tomorrow is my team's first meet, tonight's pre-meet dinner begins at 6:00, and the first (and therefore busiest) week of school begins Monday. I won't get any analysis up until 6:00 PM at the earliest, and maybe as late as 10:00.
Thursday, August 23, 2007
All Alan Webb, Alll The Time
The always-professional Tim Layden has a nice article on Alan Webb in today's Sports Illustrated. Just yesterday he was on the front page of the Washington Post and had a writeup in USA Today. British bookies list him as the men's 1500m favorite (2-1 odds).
All this is nice, but I can't help thinking that it's more of the same expectations that he couldn't possibly have fulfilled in the past. If Webb bombs, he'll be considered damaged goods by the media until he wins an Olympic gold medal. If he only medals, it will get an "Oh, that's nice" treatment (especially if Lagat beats him). And if he should actually win, it will be treated by the US sports media as little but a stepping stone to next year's Olympics, giving them an entire year to set up the expectations even higher. In short, nothing will be good enough.
I agree that there's almost no such thing as bad sports publicity, save corruption or crime. But the whole scene makes me a bit nervous. There are multiple distance runners in the US capable of medaling or even winning next week. Why concentrate on just one?
All this is nice, but I can't help thinking that it's more of the same expectations that he couldn't possibly have fulfilled in the past. If Webb bombs, he'll be considered damaged goods by the media until he wins an Olympic gold medal. If he only medals, it will get an "Oh, that's nice" treatment (especially if Lagat beats him). And if he should actually win, it will be treated by the US sports media as little but a stepping stone to next year's Olympics, giving them an entire year to set up the expectations even higher. In short, nothing will be good enough.
I agree that there's almost no such thing as bad sports publicity, save corruption or crime. But the whole scene makes me a bit nervous. There are multiple distance runners in the US capable of medaling or even winning next week. Why concentrate on just one?
Predictions comparison
T&FN finally mailed out its preview the other day. There's an essential dilemma in doing this kind of stuff; you want to have enough time to read and digest the material before the meet, but you also want the details to be up-to-date.
Anyway, I did my pre-meet picks before theirs were released. For the most part, I've picked the same winners as they have. When we disagree, it's probably because they're better at making picks than I am. But I thought I'd at least defend mine.
Men's 800m
Their pick: Yuriy Borzakovskiy (Russia)
My pick: Belal Mansour Ali (Bahrain)
Justification: Ali is listed for the 800 but apparently not running it. I think Borza will be runner-up anyway due to his unimodal and overly-simplistic race strategy.
Men's 1500m
Their pick: Bernard Lagat (USA)
My pick: Belal Mansour Ali (Bahrain)
Justification: They say Lagat because of big-meet experience and recent good races. I say he's old and even his best races were inferior to Ali's. Note that British bookmakers' odds have Ali at 9-2 and Lagat at 16-1, with Webb as the favorite at 2-1.
Men's 5000m
Their pick: Tariku Bekele (Ethiopia)
My pick: Eliud Kipchoge (Kenya)
Justification: Kipchoge has very good speed, which he has used to win big meets before. If T&FN can use "experience" to justify picking someone to win, so can I.
Men's Pole Vault
Their pick: Brad Walker (USA)
My pick: Steve Hooker (Australia)
Justification: Walker has been too inconsistent.
Men's Hammer Throw
Their pick: Koji Murofushi (Japan)
My pick: Ivan Tikhon (Belarus)
Justification: Murofushi, 11th on the yearly list, has thrown over 77 meters only once this year.
Men's Decathlon
Their pick: Brian Clay (USA)
My pick: Andrey Kravchenko (Belarus)
Justification: Clay has only finished one decathlon in the last two seasons. Kravchenko is a star on the rise.
Women's 100m
Their pick: Torri Edwards (USA)
My pick: Veronica Campbell (Jamaica)
Justification: When conditions are taken into account, Campbell's times are clearly superior to Edwards'. While 200m results should be taken with a grain of salt, Campbell thrashed Edwards at the distance in London.
Women's 800m
Their pick: Olga Kotlyarova (Russia)
My pick: Kenia Sinclair (Jamaica)
Justification: None.
Women's Long Jump
Their pick: Lyudmila Kolchanova (Russia)
My pick: Tatyana Lebedeva (Russia)
Justification: Lebedeva is a supreme big-meet competitor and Kolchanova is still a bit green. But I'm probably going to be wrong here.
Anyway, I did my pre-meet picks before theirs were released. For the most part, I've picked the same winners as they have. When we disagree, it's probably because they're better at making picks than I am. But I thought I'd at least defend mine.
Men's 800m
Their pick: Yuriy Borzakovskiy (Russia)
My pick: Belal Mansour Ali (Bahrain)
Justification: Ali is listed for the 800 but apparently not running it. I think Borza will be runner-up anyway due to his unimodal and overly-simplistic race strategy.
Men's 1500m
Their pick: Bernard Lagat (USA)
My pick: Belal Mansour Ali (Bahrain)
Justification: They say Lagat because of big-meet experience and recent good races. I say he's old and even his best races were inferior to Ali's. Note that British bookmakers' odds have Ali at 9-2 and Lagat at 16-1, with Webb as the favorite at 2-1.
Men's 5000m
Their pick: Tariku Bekele (Ethiopia)
My pick: Eliud Kipchoge (Kenya)
Justification: Kipchoge has very good speed, which he has used to win big meets before. If T&FN can use "experience" to justify picking someone to win, so can I.
Men's Pole Vault
Their pick: Brad Walker (USA)
My pick: Steve Hooker (Australia)
Justification: Walker has been too inconsistent.
Men's Hammer Throw
Their pick: Koji Murofushi (Japan)
My pick: Ivan Tikhon (Belarus)
Justification: Murofushi, 11th on the yearly list, has thrown over 77 meters only once this year.
Men's Decathlon
Their pick: Brian Clay (USA)
My pick: Andrey Kravchenko (Belarus)
Justification: Clay has only finished one decathlon in the last two seasons. Kravchenko is a star on the rise.
Women's 100m
Their pick: Torri Edwards (USA)
My pick: Veronica Campbell (Jamaica)
Justification: When conditions are taken into account, Campbell's times are clearly superior to Edwards'. While 200m results should be taken with a grain of salt, Campbell thrashed Edwards at the distance in London.
Women's 800m
Their pick: Olga Kotlyarova (Russia)
My pick: Kenia Sinclair (Jamaica)
Justification: None.
Women's Long Jump
Their pick: Lyudmila Kolchanova (Russia)
My pick: Tatyana Lebedeva (Russia)
Justification: Lebedeva is a supreme big-meet competitor and Kolchanova is still a bit green. But I'm probably going to be wrong here.
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Osaka Marathon Preview
Picking these kinds of races are always damn near impossible. Marathon careers are so short that once someone proves themselves a consistent big-time winner they're almost over the hill. And unlike the big-city invitational marathons, every dark horse is here. So I'm not doing it.
Instead, I'll look at how the race might affect the World Marathon Majors standings.
MEN
Abderrahim Goumri (Morocco) is the only athlete in the top ten of the 2006-07 standings even entered in the race. This is only his second marathon ever. If he did win, he'd move up to a tie for second, which pays out...nothing. However, he'd take the lead in the 2007-08 standings and put himself in a very good position for next year's payout. The only athletes I could see outrunning him are the Japanese.
WOMEN
Zhou Chunxiu (China) is T&FN's favorite and currently seventh in the 2006-07 standings, and even with a win she could only get to second. Galina Bogomolova (Russia) is also entered (currently third, could move to second by winning). So there's nothing on the line here for this year's championship.
As far as next year's championship goes, though, there is a lot on the line. Zhou won in London and another win here would put her in the driver's seat. Noting that she's completed twelve marathons in the last four years, I'd say she's approaching the downside of her career so she'd better not waste any opportunities she has. No one else who has scored any points in the '07-'08 competition is entered.
Instead, I'll look at how the race might affect the World Marathon Majors standings.
MEN
Abderrahim Goumri (Morocco) is the only athlete in the top ten of the 2006-07 standings even entered in the race. This is only his second marathon ever. If he did win, he'd move up to a tie for second, which pays out...nothing. However, he'd take the lead in the 2007-08 standings and put himself in a very good position for next year's payout. The only athletes I could see outrunning him are the Japanese.
WOMEN
Zhou Chunxiu (China) is T&FN's favorite and currently seventh in the 2006-07 standings, and even with a win she could only get to second. Galina Bogomolova (Russia) is also entered (currently third, could move to second by winning). So there's nothing on the line here for this year's championship.
As far as next year's championship goes, though, there is a lot on the line. Zhou won in London and another win here would put her in the driver's seat. Noting that she's completed twelve marathons in the last four years, I'd say she's approaching the downside of her career so she'd better not waste any opportunities she has. No one else who has scored any points in the '07-'08 competition is entered.
Osaka Multis Predictions
Men
Gold - Andrei Krauchanka (Belarus). Has won twice this year, including beating Šebrle at Götzis.
Silver - Roman Šebrle (Czech Republic).
Bronze - Dmitriy Karpov (Kazakhstan). If he wins, we'll get to find out if his national anthem is really the one from Borat, or if they just made it up.
Women
Gold - Carolina Klüft (Sweden). Until she's beaten, she'll always be the favorite.
Silver - Lyudmila Blonska (Ukraine).
Bronze - Jessica Ennis (Great Britain).
Gold - Andrei Krauchanka (Belarus). Has won twice this year, including beating Šebrle at Götzis.
Silver - Roman Šebrle (Czech Republic).
Bronze - Dmitriy Karpov (Kazakhstan). If he wins, we'll get to find out if his national anthem is really the one from Borat, or if they just made it up.
Women
Gold - Carolina Klüft (Sweden). Until she's beaten, she'll always be the favorite.
Silver - Lyudmila Blonska (Ukraine).
Bronze - Jessica Ennis (Great Britain).
Monday, August 20, 2007
IAAF World Rankings Kaput
Officially.
Discuss.
The IAAF unveiled its own World Rankings a few years back. They were somewhat akin to those used in professional tennis and golf, but but not quite as useful. In fact, sometimes they were downright awful.
I respect and honor Track & Field News' annual world rankings; the format is simple, the criteria are objective, and a subjective "town meeting" of great minds determine the results. They have been recocgnized as THE world rankings for over half a century.
Still, the teeming millions hunger for more. tafnut: "perhaps someone could use the T&FN methodology (assuming T&FN is too busy itself to do it) to come up with a 'better mousetrap' to serve the world's real fans." on an interim basis. Well, I was going to wait a year to roll this out, as I am in no way ready, but I'll at least explain my idea.
The IAAF more or less pioneered the system of a season-long points race (the Grand Prix circuit) that qualified the top athletes to a season-ending championship (the GP Final). NSACAR and the PGA have stolen the idea. Nowadays they call it the World Athletics Tour and the World Athletics Final. The tour encompasses every invitational meet that means anything, and they still keep season-long standings. I like it because you can see exactly what one athlete needs to do in order to leapfrog another.
But the points standings system has drawbacks. First, it doesn't encompass all meaningful meets. The upcoming World Championships don't count, and neither does the World Final. International and regional games and cups (e.g., Pan-Am, Euro Cup) don't count, and neither do national championships. Indoor track and cross country are totally left out. The now-defunct World Rankings addressed this, but attempted to shove everything into a one-size-fits-all formula and obviously it didn't work. More to the point, the IAAF's rankings were heavily based on marks and used place in the competition as merely a supplement. It really should be the reverse.
And that's just what I'm going to do. In any competition, an athlete will earn points for place just like on the World Athletics Tour, and just like on the tour the bigger meets score more points. Athletes can earn up to ten bonus points in a meet based on their mark. The eight best competitions for the year will count. The top athletes will be the ones who consistently place high in the biggest meets and consistently put up good marks.
I will have one major departure from tradition, though. This year we've seen athletes wander into events other than their major emphasis, such as Allyson Felix in the 400 or Alan Webb in the 800. Success in related events has some meaning and we all know this. So up to two of the eight competitions can be in other events.
This is an experiment, one that I won't even be able to get off the ground until next season. I've played around with it in the men's 100 meters and here's what I've got (scoring only seven best meets since the season isn't to its climax yet):
1. Tyson Gay (134)
2. Derrick Atkins (119)
3. Asafa Powell (99)
4. Marlon Devonish (77)
5. Francis Obikwelu (74)
5. Churandy Martina (74)
7. Shawn Crawford (70)
8. Walter Dix (64)
9. Nesta Carter (61)
10. Trindon Holliday (59)
This is not any prediction of how they'll run at the Worlds or even a merit ranking in the manner of T&FN's. It's merely a way of tabulating what they've done; Powell ranks lower than he should due to the fact that he's only run six races this year (five 100s and a 200). In fact the numbers aren't even quite right as I haven't awarded time points for any 200m races (if I did, Gay would be even farther ahead).
Where this is superior to any other system is for determining some kind of jackpot winner. The Golden League (and its predecessor, the Golden Four) have always paid off the undefeated. This rewards not neccessarily the dominant athletes but sometimes the ones with no competition. At the end of the season there's no drama except for spoilers. Bo-ring.
Suppose instead we havea hot rivalry between two really good, say for example, hurdlers. They just about split their head-to-head meetings, rarely if ever lose to anyone else, and put up great marks in the process. That's the kind of competition that should be rewarded; in my setup they'd almost assuredly have the highest point totals of any athletes in any events. And they'd have to battle to the end of the year for a jackpot. Exciting!
As I say, this is merely an experiment. We'll see how it goes somewhere around next May.
Discuss.
The IAAF unveiled its own World Rankings a few years back. They were somewhat akin to those used in professional tennis and golf, but but not quite as useful. In fact, sometimes they were downright awful.
I respect and honor Track & Field News' annual world rankings; the format is simple, the criteria are objective, and a subjective "town meeting" of great minds determine the results. They have been recocgnized as THE world rankings for over half a century.
Still, the teeming millions hunger for more. tafnut: "perhaps someone could use the T&FN methodology (assuming T&FN is too busy itself to do it) to come up with a 'better mousetrap' to serve the world's real fans." on an interim basis. Well, I was going to wait a year to roll this out, as I am in no way ready, but I'll at least explain my idea.
The IAAF more or less pioneered the system of a season-long points race (the Grand Prix circuit) that qualified the top athletes to a season-ending championship (the GP Final). NSACAR and the PGA have stolen the idea. Nowadays they call it the World Athletics Tour and the World Athletics Final. The tour encompasses every invitational meet that means anything, and they still keep season-long standings. I like it because you can see exactly what one athlete needs to do in order to leapfrog another.
But the points standings system has drawbacks. First, it doesn't encompass all meaningful meets. The upcoming World Championships don't count, and neither does the World Final. International and regional games and cups (e.g., Pan-Am, Euro Cup) don't count, and neither do national championships. Indoor track and cross country are totally left out. The now-defunct World Rankings addressed this, but attempted to shove everything into a one-size-fits-all formula and obviously it didn't work. More to the point, the IAAF's rankings were heavily based on marks and used place in the competition as merely a supplement. It really should be the reverse.
And that's just what I'm going to do. In any competition, an athlete will earn points for place just like on the World Athletics Tour, and just like on the tour the bigger meets score more points. Athletes can earn up to ten bonus points in a meet based on their mark. The eight best competitions for the year will count. The top athletes will be the ones who consistently place high in the biggest meets and consistently put up good marks.
I will have one major departure from tradition, though. This year we've seen athletes wander into events other than their major emphasis, such as Allyson Felix in the 400 or Alan Webb in the 800. Success in related events has some meaning and we all know this. So up to two of the eight competitions can be in other events.
This is an experiment, one that I won't even be able to get off the ground until next season. I've played around with it in the men's 100 meters and here's what I've got (scoring only seven best meets since the season isn't to its climax yet):
1. Tyson Gay (134)
2. Derrick Atkins (119)
3. Asafa Powell (99)
4. Marlon Devonish (77)
5. Francis Obikwelu (74)
5. Churandy Martina (74)
7. Shawn Crawford (70)
8. Walter Dix (64)
9. Nesta Carter (61)
10. Trindon Holliday (59)
This is not any prediction of how they'll run at the Worlds or even a merit ranking in the manner of T&FN's. It's merely a way of tabulating what they've done; Powell ranks lower than he should due to the fact that he's only run six races this year (five 100s and a 200). In fact the numbers aren't even quite right as I haven't awarded time points for any 200m races (if I did, Gay would be even farther ahead).
Where this is superior to any other system is for determining some kind of jackpot winner. The Golden League (and its predecessor, the Golden Four) have always paid off the undefeated. This rewards not neccessarily the dominant athletes but sometimes the ones with no competition. At the end of the season there's no drama except for spoilers. Bo-ring.
Suppose instead we havea hot rivalry between two really good, say for example, hurdlers. They just about split their head-to-head meetings, rarely if ever lose to anyone else, and put up great marks in the process. That's the kind of competition that should be rewarded; in my setup they'd almost assuredly have the highest point totals of any athletes in any events. And they'd have to battle to the end of the year for a jackpot. Exciting!
As I say, this is merely an experiment. We'll see how it goes somewhere around next May.
Osaka 10k Predictions
Men
Gold - Kenenisa Bekele (Ethiopia).
Silver - Zersenay Tadesse (Eritrea).
Bronze - Sileshi Sihine (Ethiopia).
Women
Gold - Tirunesh Dibaba (Ethiopia).
Silver - Mestawet Tufa (Ethiopia).
Bronze - Kayoko Fukushi (Japan). I'll bet no one else is picking her to medal, so remember you heard it here.
Gold - Kenenisa Bekele (Ethiopia).
Silver - Zersenay Tadesse (Eritrea).
Bronze - Sileshi Sihine (Ethiopia).
Women
Gold - Tirunesh Dibaba (Ethiopia).
Silver - Mestawet Tufa (Ethiopia).
Bronze - Kayoko Fukushi (Japan). I'll bet no one else is picking her to medal, so remember you heard it here.
Osaka 5k Predictions
IAAF Distance Preview
Predicting the 5k and 10k is always difficult for several reasons. First, we're not always sure exactly who is going to run what event until the last minute. Second, the lack of pacemakers in championship races often makes them quite different from the the races we've seen over the summer. And finally, the ability to peak at the right time plays a role as well. I'm calling these picks little but a crapshoot.
Men
Gold - Eliud Kipchoge (Kenya).
Silver - Craig "Buster" Mottram (Australia).
Bronze - Sileshi Sihine (Ethiopia).
Women
Gold - Meseret Defar (Ethiopia).
Silver - Tirunesh Dibaba (Ethiopia).
Bronze - Mariem Alaoui Selsouli (Morocco).
Predicting the 5k and 10k is always difficult for several reasons. First, we're not always sure exactly who is going to run what event until the last minute. Second, the lack of pacemakers in championship races often makes them quite different from the the races we've seen over the summer. And finally, the ability to peak at the right time plays a role as well. I'm calling these picks little but a crapshoot.
Men
Gold - Eliud Kipchoge (Kenya).
Silver - Craig "Buster" Mottram (Australia).
Bronze - Sileshi Sihine (Ethiopia).
Women
Gold - Meseret Defar (Ethiopia).
Silver - Tirunesh Dibaba (Ethiopia).
Bronze - Mariem Alaoui Selsouli (Morocco).
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Osaka Javelin Throw Predictions
Men
Gold - Tero Pitkämäki (Finland). His only loss this year was after a grisly accident in Rome took the spirit out of him.
Silver - Andreas Thorkildsen (Norway). Remarkably consistent.
Bronze - Breaux Greer (USA). Has lost to no one but the above two, and beat Thorkildsen in Oslo.
Women
Gold - Christina Obergföll (Germany). Undefeated.
Silver - Steffi Nerius (Germany). The 35-year-old vet has a winning record against all but Obergföll.
Bronze - Barbora Špotáková (Czech Republic).
Gold - Tero Pitkämäki (Finland). His only loss this year was after a grisly accident in Rome took the spirit out of him.
Silver - Andreas Thorkildsen (Norway). Remarkably consistent.
Bronze - Breaux Greer (USA). Has lost to no one but the above two, and beat Thorkildsen in Oslo.
Women
Gold - Christina Obergföll (Germany). Undefeated.
Silver - Steffi Nerius (Germany). The 35-year-old vet has a winning record against all but Obergföll.
Bronze - Barbora Špotáková (Czech Republic).
Osaka Hammer Throw Predictions
Men
Koji Murofushi is a home favorite, but he just hasn't done enough this year for me to figure him into the medals.
Gold - Ivan Tsikhan (Belarus).
Silver - Primož Kozmus (Slovenia). Split his four meetings with Tsikhon this year.
Bronze - Krisztián Pars (Hungary). The only other thrower to beat Tsikohn this year, and has a 3-3 record versus next best thrower Libor Charfrietag.
Women
World record setter Tatyana Lysenko is out.
Gold - Yipsi Moreno (Cuba). Has a winning record versus all major competitors.
Silver - Ivana Brkljacic (Croatia).
Bronze - Betty Heidler (Germany).
Koji Murofushi is a home favorite, but he just hasn't done enough this year for me to figure him into the medals.
Gold - Ivan Tsikhan (Belarus).
Silver - Primož Kozmus (Slovenia). Split his four meetings with Tsikhon this year.
Bronze - Krisztián Pars (Hungary). The only other thrower to beat Tsikohn this year, and has a 3-3 record versus next best thrower Libor Charfrietag.
Women
World record setter Tatyana Lysenko is out.
Gold - Yipsi Moreno (Cuba). Has a winning record versus all major competitors.
Silver - Ivana Brkljacic (Croatia).
Bronze - Betty Heidler (Germany).
Saturday, August 18, 2007
Osaka Discus Throw Predictions
Men
Gold - Virgilijus Alekna (Lithuania). One of the safer bets in the whole meet.
Silver - Gerd Kanter (Estonia).
Bronze - Piotr Malachowski (Poland).
Women
Gold - Franka Dietzsch (Germany).
Silver - Darya Pishchalnikova (Russia).
Bronze - Vera Pospíšilová-Cechlová (Czech Republic).
Gold - Virgilijus Alekna (Lithuania). One of the safer bets in the whole meet.
Silver - Gerd Kanter (Estonia).
Bronze - Piotr Malachowski (Poland).
Women
Gold - Franka Dietzsch (Germany).
Silver - Darya Pishchalnikova (Russia).
Bronze - Vera Pospíšilová-Cechlová (Czech Republic).
Street Vault
Every year I do a local five-miler. It's part of a fair in Pemberville, a small town just ten miles outside of Bowling Green. This year I saw in the fair booklet that they were going to have a street vault the next day, so I thought I'd go take a look.
I got into town just as the fair's parade was beginning.
I took a walk over to the "street" vault.
I'd never been to one of these before. Michigan had a big beach vault last month, and there's a whole bunch of vaults like this all over. This one really wasn't a "street" vault, more of a "school parking lot" vault.
When I showed up, the high school boys were at 12 feet. I figured it would just be some local kids and when the bar got up to 13' 6" or so it would come to an end. How wrong I was. It turned out that quite a few top kids came for this. Two were still left at 16 feet, Miek Uhle and Anthony Amore. Uhle made the height:
and went on to try a new "state record" of 16' 7" (he didn't make it). Last week Uhle set the record at 16' 6". It won't ever be considered official in any way, but it will appear as a footnote on my state lists.
After two hours of watching this I'd had my fill and didn't stay around for the open competition. It featured college kids, local high school coaches, and even one of the world's best in the 60-65 age group. When I get results, I'll post 'em.
I got into town just as the fair's parade was beginning.
I took a walk over to the "street" vault.I'd never been to one of these before. Michigan had a big beach vault last month, and there's a whole bunch of vaults like this all over. This one really wasn't a "street" vault, more of a "school parking lot" vault.
When I showed up, the high school boys were at 12 feet. I figured it would just be some local kids and when the bar got up to 13' 6" or so it would come to an end. How wrong I was. It turned out that quite a few top kids came for this. Two were still left at 16 feet, Miek Uhle and Anthony Amore. Uhle made the height:
and went on to try a new "state record" of 16' 7" (he didn't make it). Last week Uhle set the record at 16' 6". It won't ever be considered official in any way, but it will appear as a footnote on my state lists.After two hours of watching this I'd had my fill and didn't stay around for the open competition. It featured college kids, local high school coaches, and even one of the world's best in the 60-65 age group. When I get results, I'll post 'em.
Osaka Shot Put Predictions
IAAF Throws Preview
Men
Gold - Reese Hoffa (USA). The rap on Hoffa used to be that he threw poorly under pressure, but not anymore. His biggest threat, Christian Cantwell, didn't make the US team. I'd be very surprised if Hoffa didn't win.
Silver - Rutger Smith (Netherlands). Madrid and London were the major meetings of top putters this summer; in the former Smith beat Hoffa, and in the latter he beat all but Hoffa and Cantwell.
Bronze - Dan Taylor (USA). Runner-up at the USATF and fairly consistent on the GP circuit.
Women
Gold - Nadzeya Ostapchuk (Belarus).
Silver - Anna Omarova (Russia).
Bronze - Petra Lammert (Germany).
Men
Gold - Reese Hoffa (USA). The rap on Hoffa used to be that he threw poorly under pressure, but not anymore. His biggest threat, Christian Cantwell, didn't make the US team. I'd be very surprised if Hoffa didn't win.
Silver - Rutger Smith (Netherlands). Madrid and London were the major meetings of top putters this summer; in the former Smith beat Hoffa, and in the latter he beat all but Hoffa and Cantwell.
Bronze - Dan Taylor (USA). Runner-up at the USATF and fairly consistent on the GP circuit.
Women
Gold - Nadzeya Ostapchuk (Belarus).
Silver - Anna Omarova (Russia).
Bronze - Petra Lammert (Germany).
Friday, August 17, 2007
Osaka Triple Jump Predictions
Men
Heavy favorite Christian Olsson out with injury.
Gold - Jadel Gregorio (Brazil).
Silver - Aarik Wilson (USA).
Bronze - Oh hell, I dunno now that Olsson is out.
Women
Gold - Tatyana Lebedeva (Russia). Again.
Silver - Marija Šestak (Slovenia).
Bronze - Yargelis Savigne (Cuba).
Heavy favorite Christian Olsson out with injury.
Gold - Jadel Gregorio (Brazil).
Silver - Aarik Wilson (USA).
Bronze - Oh hell, I dunno now that Olsson is out.
Women
Gold - Tatyana Lebedeva (Russia). Again.
Silver - Marija Šestak (Slovenia).
Bronze - Yargelis Savigne (Cuba).
Osaka Long Jump Predictions
Men
World leader Loúis Tsátoumas (Greece) is out injured.
Gold - Irving Saladino (Panama). The long jump is generally not prone to big upsets and I certainly don't expect one here.
Silver - Andrew Howe (Italy). No, that name doesn't sound Italian. He was born in LA and moved to Rieti when he was five years old.
Bronze - Dwight Phillips (USA). It looks like his streak of World championships is going to end at two.
Women
Gold - Tatyana Lebedeva (Russia).
Silver - Lyudmila Kolchanova (Russia). The defending European champion has improved significantly each year since hitting the world stage.
Bronze - Naide Gomes (Portugal).
World leader Loúis Tsátoumas (Greece) is out injured.
Gold - Irving Saladino (Panama). The long jump is generally not prone to big upsets and I certainly don't expect one here.
Silver - Andrew Howe (Italy). No, that name doesn't sound Italian. He was born in LA and moved to Rieti when he was five years old.
Bronze - Dwight Phillips (USA). It looks like his streak of World championships is going to end at two.
Women
Gold - Tatyana Lebedeva (Russia).
Silver - Lyudmila Kolchanova (Russia). The defending European champion has improved significantly each year since hitting the world stage.
Bronze - Naide Gomes (Portugal).
Thursday, August 16, 2007
Osaka Pole Vault Predictions
Men
Gold - Steve Hooker (Australia).
Silver - Brad Walker (USA). If he's on he's unbeatable, but he does have his down days.
Bronze - Danny Ecker (Germany). Appears to be the best of the Europeans this year.
Women
Gold - Yelena Isinbayeva (Russia).
Silver - Svetlana Feofanova (Russia).
Bronze - Monica Pyrek (Poland).
Gold - Steve Hooker (Australia).
Silver - Brad Walker (USA). If he's on he's unbeatable, but he does have his down days.
Bronze - Danny Ecker (Germany). Appears to be the best of the Europeans this year.
Women
Gold - Yelena Isinbayeva (Russia).
Silver - Svetlana Feofanova (Russia).
Bronze - Monica Pyrek (Poland).
Osaka High Jump Predictions
IAAF Jumps Preview
Men
Gold - Stefan Holm (Sweden). The reigning European Indoor champ is a heavy favorite.
Silver - Yaroslav Rybakov (Russia). Always does well in the biggest meets.
Bronze - Tomáš Janku (Czech Republic). Jumping fairly consistently and appears to be peaking.
Women
Gold - Blanka Vlašic (Croatia). Bet the farm on this one.
Silver - Yelena Slesarenko (Russia). The Euro Cup champ has rarely lost to anyone but Vlašic, and beat her in Oslo.
Bronze - Kajsa Bergqvist (Sweden).
Men
Gold - Stefan Holm (Sweden). The reigning European Indoor champ is a heavy favorite.
Silver - Yaroslav Rybakov (Russia). Always does well in the biggest meets.
Bronze - Tomáš Janku (Czech Republic). Jumping fairly consistently and appears to be peaking.
Women
Gold - Blanka Vlašic (Croatia). Bet the farm on this one.
Silver - Yelena Slesarenko (Russia). The Euro Cup champ has rarely lost to anyone but Vlašic, and beat her in Oslo.
Bronze - Kajsa Bergqvist (Sweden).
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Osaka 400m Hurdle Predictions
Men
Gold - James Carter (USA). Has a winning record against all major competitors.
Silver - Kerron Clement (USA). Tends to be a bit unpredictable but is getting more consistent.
Bronze - LJ Van Zyl (South Africa).
Women
Gold - Yulia Nosova-Pechonkina (Russia).
Silver - Jana Pittman-Rawlinson (Australia).
Bronze - Sheena Johnson (USA). This was a tossup choice with Yevgenia Isakova (Russia).
Gold - James Carter (USA). Has a winning record against all major competitors.
Silver - Kerron Clement (USA). Tends to be a bit unpredictable but is getting more consistent.
Bronze - LJ Van Zyl (South Africa).
Women
Gold - Yulia Nosova-Pechonkina (Russia).
Silver - Jana Pittman-Rawlinson (Australia).
Bronze - Sheena Johnson (USA). This was a tossup choice with Yevgenia Isakova (Russia).
Osaka High Hurdle Predictions
IAAF Hurdles Preview
Men
Gold - Liu Xiang (China). Has lost only once this year and has put up the best series of marks.
Silver - Dayron Robles (Cuba). If you went purely by marks on the world list, you'd have to pick him for third. I think he's a better hurdler than Trammell, though.
Bronze - Terrence Trammell (USA).
Women
Gold - Michelle Perry (USA). Pretty clear-cut here; Perry has lost just twice this year.
Silver - Susanna Kallur (Sweden). Only once this year has she been beaten by anyone but Perry.
Bronze - Lolo Jones (USA). Consistently the next best after these two.
Men
Gold - Liu Xiang (China). Has lost only once this year and has put up the best series of marks.
Silver - Dayron Robles (Cuba). If you went purely by marks on the world list, you'd have to pick him for third. I think he's a better hurdler than Trammell, though.
Bronze - Terrence Trammell (USA).
Women
Gold - Michelle Perry (USA). Pretty clear-cut here; Perry has lost just twice this year.
Silver - Susanna Kallur (Sweden). Only once this year has she been beaten by anyone but Perry.
Bronze - Lolo Jones (USA). Consistently the next best after these two.
Monday, August 13, 2007
Osaka Steeplechase Predictions
Men
The two best steeplers are out. Saif Saaeed Shaheen has been injured and will not run, and World Athletics Tour leader Paul Kipsiele Koech did not make Kenya's team.
Gold - Ezekiel Kemboi (Kenya). You simply must take any Kenyan steeplechase champion seriously. Kemboi's not just any Kenyan champ, either. He's having a good year with several big wins (aside from the Paris debacle). He has a good record in big meets, too; in the last three WC/OG meets, he's only lost to Shaheen, who's not going to be there this time.
Silver - Richard Kipkemboi Mateelong (Kenya).
Bronze - Brimin Kiprop Kipruto (Kenya). Theoretically, Bob Tahri (France) or Mustafa Mohamed (Sweden) could break up the medal sweep, but that's only if one of the Kenyans falls. I wouldn't bet on it.
Women
Not much history here, so it's a bit harder to handicap. Defending World Champ Dorcus Inzikuru is out (pregnancy).
Gold - Gulnara Galkina-Sabitova (Russia)
Silver - Eunice Jepkorir (Kenya)
Bronze - Donna McFarlane (Australia)
The two best steeplers are out. Saif Saaeed Shaheen has been injured and will not run, and World Athletics Tour leader Paul Kipsiele Koech did not make Kenya's team.
Gold - Ezekiel Kemboi (Kenya). You simply must take any Kenyan steeplechase champion seriously. Kemboi's not just any Kenyan champ, either. He's having a good year with several big wins (aside from the Paris debacle). He has a good record in big meets, too; in the last three WC/OG meets, he's only lost to Shaheen, who's not going to be there this time.
Silver - Richard Kipkemboi Mateelong (Kenya).
Bronze - Brimin Kiprop Kipruto (Kenya). Theoretically, Bob Tahri (France) or Mustafa Mohamed (Sweden) could break up the medal sweep, but that's only if one of the Kenyans falls. I wouldn't bet on it.
Women
Not much history here, so it's a bit harder to handicap. Defending World Champ Dorcus Inzikuru is out (pregnancy).
Gold - Gulnara Galkina-Sabitova (Russia)
Silver - Eunice Jepkorir (Kenya)
Bronze - Donna McFarlane (Australia)
Hal Davis obit
Hal Davis, probably the greatest sprinter who never won an Olympic title, has died.
Davis, who held the "World's Fastest Human'' title from 1941-43 after winning just about every major sprint title during that period, was a member of the original National Track and Field Hall of Fame, a class that included Jesse Owens.In the 1940-43 seasons, Davis lost only three times at 100y/100m and was undefeated at 220y/200m. Discuss.
Sunday, August 12, 2007
Osaka 1500m Predictions
Men
If we've learned anything over the last two decades, it's that championship races without a rabbit reward a slightly different set of abilities than the GP circuit's high-speed time trials. This adds a layer of complexity.
Gold - Belal Mansoor Ali (Bahrain). The fact that he's won his last three outings at 1500m on the World Athletics Tour is meaningful, but that he's also won twice at shorter distances is much more meaningful. The 800m and 1k require a bit more speed-endurance, and also require a bit more actual racing skill.
Silver - Alan Webb (USA). Clearly he's running better than any miler in the world right now. He also has a history of running poorly in races where he may have to think on his feet. I'm not ready to jump on the Webb bandwagon yet, but counting him out of the medals would be stupid.
Bronze - Asbel Kiprop (Kenya). A big question mark. He's won four big meets in Africa (World Junior XC, Kenyan Championships, All-Africa Games, Kenyan Trials) and ran poorly in his two European outings. Note that the experts say an altitude-trained athlete needs time to acclimate to sea level before he has any "snap" in his legs, so those two WAT races might not mean much. Reasonable people have even picked him to win.
Women
Gold - Maryam Yusuf Jamal (Bahrain). Has lost only to Soboleva this summer and her history at championship meets is very good.
Silver - Yelena Soboleva (Russia). Running great, but doesn't do so well at the big meets.
Bronze - Irina Lishchynska (Ukraine). A safe pick.
If we've learned anything over the last two decades, it's that championship races without a rabbit reward a slightly different set of abilities than the GP circuit's high-speed time trials. This adds a layer of complexity.
Gold - Belal Mansoor Ali (Bahrain). The fact that he's won his last three outings at 1500m on the World Athletics Tour is meaningful, but that he's also won twice at shorter distances is much more meaningful. The 800m and 1k require a bit more speed-endurance, and also require a bit more actual racing skill.
Silver - Alan Webb (USA). Clearly he's running better than any miler in the world right now. He also has a history of running poorly in races where he may have to think on his feet. I'm not ready to jump on the Webb bandwagon yet, but counting him out of the medals would be stupid.
Bronze - Asbel Kiprop (Kenya). A big question mark. He's won four big meets in Africa (World Junior XC, Kenyan Championships, All-Africa Games, Kenyan Trials) and ran poorly in his two European outings. Note that the experts say an altitude-trained athlete needs time to acclimate to sea level before he has any "snap" in his legs, so those two WAT races might not mean much. Reasonable people have even picked him to win.
Women
Gold - Maryam Yusuf Jamal (Bahrain). Has lost only to Soboleva this summer and her history at championship meets is very good.
Silver - Yelena Soboleva (Russia). Running great, but doesn't do so well at the big meets.
Bronze - Irina Lishchynska (Ukraine). A safe pick.
Saturday, August 11, 2007
Olympic Trials countdown
It's more or less a done deal now. This morning I bought my airline ticket to Eugene for next summer's Olympic Trials. I'm going with Track & Field News Tours (I had to get on their wait list, and finally got in just a while ago).
I went with the T&FN gang once before, to the 2001 World Championships in Edmonton. Some say their tours are overpriced. I'm not so sure. For my estimated final tab of $1400 I get eleven nights of lodging, prime tickets for all eight days of the meet, and a snooty lunch where I get to meet some stars. It's possible that I could have beaten the price doing all the legwork myself, but not by more than a hundred dollars or so and I'm virtually certain my seating wouldn't be nearly as good doing it myself.
Osaka 800m Predictions
IAAF Middle Distance Preview
Men
The picture is muddled to say the least. Only three runners have as many as two wins this year in Grand Prix meets, and all of them have bombed at times. Usually you can count on Kenya to send a fine group but even here we basically have a trio of unknown quantities (while Bungei is a very good runner he has a history of running poorly at championships).
That would make prognosticating difficult enough, but then we've got the additional issue of how the race will be run, which will make a huge difference in who gets the medals. T&FN's early favorite, Yuriy Borzakovskiy, always hangs back in the first lap and attempts to come storming to the front in the final 200 meters. Nick Symmonds has also picked up this strategy (but isn't nearly as extreme); two of his races show its strengths and weaknesses.
At the Prefontaine meet, Khadevis Robinson took out the pace hard (50.7) while Symmonds ran behind all but Borzakovskiy. Robinson tired and it was fairly easy for Symmonds to pass a strung-out field. But at the USATF meet, Robinson held back a bit (51.1) and held on for the win, while a tighter pack of runners boxed in Symmonds and then he had to swing wide on the homestretch. Four-tenths of a second might not seem like a lot, but in these two races it was the difference between winning and losing.
Which way will it go? Well, big-time races have been run this way. Munich '72, Seoul '88, and Athens '04 jump to mind. But these jump to mind because they are unusual. So I'm going to guess that the race will not begin at a suicidal pace, and Borzakovskiy will come up short and win silver.
Gold - Belal Mansoor Ali (Bahrain). I don't yet know if he will run this event in Osaka.
Silver - Yuriy Borzakovskiy (Russia).
Bronze - Abraham Chepkirwok (Uganda). Here I'm more or less throwing darts at a list of names.
Women
Gold - Kenia Sinclair (Jamaica). Has lost only once this year on the World Athletics Tour (to Mutola at Eugene) and avenged that loss in Lausanne.
Silver - Maria Mutola (Mozambique). We can only assume she has a painting of an old and very slow Mutola in her attic.
Bronze - Olga Kotlyarova (Russia). Had a so-so summer until the recent Russian Championships, where she ran very well to win.
Men
The picture is muddled to say the least. Only three runners have as many as two wins this year in Grand Prix meets, and all of them have bombed at times. Usually you can count on Kenya to send a fine group but even here we basically have a trio of unknown quantities (while Bungei is a very good runner he has a history of running poorly at championships).
That would make prognosticating difficult enough, but then we've got the additional issue of how the race will be run, which will make a huge difference in who gets the medals. T&FN's early favorite, Yuriy Borzakovskiy, always hangs back in the first lap and attempts to come storming to the front in the final 200 meters. Nick Symmonds has also picked up this strategy (but isn't nearly as extreme); two of his races show its strengths and weaknesses.
At the Prefontaine meet, Khadevis Robinson took out the pace hard (50.7) while Symmonds ran behind all but Borzakovskiy. Robinson tired and it was fairly easy for Symmonds to pass a strung-out field. But at the USATF meet, Robinson held back a bit (51.1) and held on for the win, while a tighter pack of runners boxed in Symmonds and then he had to swing wide on the homestretch. Four-tenths of a second might not seem like a lot, but in these two races it was the difference between winning and losing.
Which way will it go? Well, big-time races have been run this way. Munich '72, Seoul '88, and Athens '04 jump to mind. But these jump to mind because they are unusual. So I'm going to guess that the race will not begin at a suicidal pace, and Borzakovskiy will come up short and win silver.
Gold - Belal Mansoor Ali (Bahrain). I don't yet know if he will run this event in Osaka.
Silver - Yuriy Borzakovskiy (Russia).
Bronze - Abraham Chepkirwok (Uganda). Here I'm more or less throwing darts at a list of names.
Women
Gold - Kenia Sinclair (Jamaica). Has lost only once this year on the World Athletics Tour (to Mutola at Eugene) and avenged that loss in Lausanne.
Silver - Maria Mutola (Mozambique). We can only assume she has a painting of an old and very slow Mutola in her attic.
Bronze - Olga Kotlyarova (Russia). Had a so-so summer until the recent Russian Championships, where she ran very well to win.
Friday, August 10, 2007
Anti-Doping News
Breaking news: Moroccon 1500m star Adil Kaouch failed a test and is provisionally suspended pending B-sample confirmation.
Discuss: Old farts / Young punks
The International Federation of Athletics (IAAF) has provisionally suspended Moroccan athlete Adil Kaouch after he failed a drug test during the last Golden League meet in Rome, MAP quoted a Moroccan Royal Athletics Federation statement as saying on Thursday (August 9th). Kaouch won the men's 1,500m on July 13th. The statement said Kaouch continues his preparations for the World Championships in Osaka, confident in the final results of the test. The IAAF has carried out anti-doping tests on many Moroccan athletes since the beginning of the year, the statement said, and all these tests were negative.Due to looming declaration deadlines, Kaouch is virtually certain to miss the Worlds even if his B-sample comes out negative. Note that just a few weeks ago French Athletics Federation president Bernard Amsalem warned us about coming scandals involving many athletes in the western Mediterannean basin.
Discuss: Old farts / Young punks
Osaka 400m Predictions
Men
Gold - Jeremy Wariner (USA). In Stockholm he removed any doubts. He is as close to a lock as there is in a running event.
Silver - LaShawn Merritt (USA). He has not been worse than second all year and has a winning record against all but Wariner.
Bronze - Here's where it gets dicey. Gary Kikaya (Congo) looked very good early, then bombed in Rome a month ago and hasn't raced since. If he's at his best, he could even get second. I'm going to play it safe, though, and go with Angelo Taylor (USA).
Women
The two best in this event, Sanya Richards and Allyson Felix, will not be competing, thus making the choices slightly more complex.
Gold - Novlene Williams (Jamaica). Has a winning record against all who will run.
Silver - Amy Mbacke Thiam (Senegal). Probably the best of the rest.
Bronze - A tossup between Natasha Hastings (USA) and Mary Wineberg (USA). At their best, it's no contest -- Hastings is a much better runner. However, it's been a very long year for the NCAA indoor/outdoor champ, and Wineberg has been improving all summer, beating Hastings handily in Stockholm. But it was the first time all year and Hastings has several weeks to get it back together. I'm going with Hastings because she doesn't even have to be at her best, only just good enough.
I reserve the right to re-arrange these predictions in the unlikely but possible occurrence that DeeDee Trotter drops out of the Worlds and Sanya Richards competes.
Gold - Jeremy Wariner (USA). In Stockholm he removed any doubts. He is as close to a lock as there is in a running event.
Silver - LaShawn Merritt (USA). He has not been worse than second all year and has a winning record against all but Wariner.
Bronze - Here's where it gets dicey. Gary Kikaya (Congo) looked very good early, then bombed in Rome a month ago and hasn't raced since. If he's at his best, he could even get second. I'm going to play it safe, though, and go with Angelo Taylor (USA).
Women
The two best in this event, Sanya Richards and Allyson Felix, will not be competing, thus making the choices slightly more complex.
Gold - Novlene Williams (Jamaica). Has a winning record against all who will run.
Silver - Amy Mbacke Thiam (Senegal). Probably the best of the rest.
Bronze - A tossup between Natasha Hastings (USA) and Mary Wineberg (USA). At their best, it's no contest -- Hastings is a much better runner. However, it's been a very long year for the NCAA indoor/outdoor champ, and Wineberg has been improving all summer, beating Hastings handily in Stockholm. But it was the first time all year and Hastings has several weeks to get it back together. I'm going with Hastings because she doesn't even have to be at her best, only just good enough.
I reserve the right to re-arrange these predictions in the unlikely but possible occurrence that DeeDee Trotter drops out of the Worlds and Sanya Richards competes.
Thursday, August 09, 2007
More Worlds Predictions
On to the 200 meters.
Men
Gold - Tyson Gay (USA). Just flat-out better than anyone else
Silver - Usain Bolt (Jamaica). Has split his four meetings with Spearmon and appears to be peaking better.
Bronze - Wallace Spearmon (USA).
Women
Gold - Allyson Felix (USA). Has only run the 200 three times this outdoor season, as she's dabbled in other distances. Undefeated and showing good form at 100 meters and great form at 400.
Silver - Sanya Richards (USA). Has only lost to Felix, and just set a big 100m PR.
Bronze - Veronica Campbell (Jamaica). Lost to Felix and Richards in Sheffield a few weeks ago, but then thrashed Torri Edwards in London. No one else could touch her.
Men
Gold - Tyson Gay (USA). Just flat-out better than anyone else
Silver - Usain Bolt (Jamaica). Has split his four meetings with Spearmon and appears to be peaking better.
Bronze - Wallace Spearmon (USA).
Women
Gold - Allyson Felix (USA). Has only run the 200 three times this outdoor season, as she's dabbled in other distances. Undefeated and showing good form at 100 meters and great form at 400.
Silver - Sanya Richards (USA). Has only lost to Felix, and just set a big 100m PR.
Bronze - Veronica Campbell (Jamaica). Lost to Felix and Richards in Sheffield a few weeks ago, but then thrashed Torri Edwards in London. No one else could touch her.
Worlds Predictions
We're now in a bit of a dead time before the World Championships begin on August 25. I'll throw my hat into the prediction ring on a day-by-day basis.
Today I'll call the 100 meters for men and women.
IAAF Sprints Preview
Men
Gold - Tyson Gay (USA). When I saw him in person, the level of dominance was ridiculous. Even though he doesn't look quite in the same form now, no one else has moved up even to his "bad day" level.
Silver - Asafa Powell (Jamaica). Hasn't been beaten this season in the 100 meters.
Bronze - Derrick Atkins (Bahamas). Has lost to each of the two above but no one else.
Women
Gold - Torri Edwards (USA). This one is a bit harder to call. Edwards has lost to Cambell but not lately (except for a sound thrashing at 200 meters in London last week). Edwards has lost to no one else.
Silver - Veronica Campbell (Jamaica). Has lost to no one but Edwards.
Bronze -A tough call. Me'Lisa Barber (USA) appears to be the world's third-best right now, but she didn't make the USA team. Kim Gevaert (Belgium) is up there but inconsistent. Lauryn Williams (USA) is a past big-time champ but not running particularly well either. I'm going out on a limb and picking Carmelita Jeter (USA) based on three recent strong showings.
EDIT: After taking a second look at things, I've changed my mind.
Gold - Campbell
Silver - Edwards
Bronze - I'm really going out on a limb and picking Tezzhan Naimova (Bulgaria). Provided, of course, that she's not caught up in the same problems as other top Bulgarian women.
Today I'll call the 100 meters for men and women.
IAAF Sprints Preview
Men
Gold - Tyson Gay (USA). When I saw him in person, the level of dominance was ridiculous. Even though he doesn't look quite in the same form now, no one else has moved up even to his "bad day" level.
Silver - Asafa Powell (Jamaica). Hasn't been beaten this season in the 100 meters.
Bronze - Derrick Atkins (Bahamas). Has lost to each of the two above but no one else.
Women
Gold - Torri Edwards (USA). This one is a bit harder to call. Edwards has lost to Cambell but not lately (except for a sound thrashing at 200 meters in London last week). Edwards has lost to no one else.
Silver - Veronica Campbell (Jamaica). Has lost to no one but Edwards.
Bronze -A tough call. Me'Lisa Barber (USA) appears to be the world's third-best right now, but she didn't make the USA team. Kim Gevaert (Belgium) is up there but inconsistent. Lauryn Williams (USA) is a past big-time champ but not running particularly well either. I'm going out on a limb and picking Carmelita Jeter (USA) based on three recent strong showings.
EDIT: After taking a second look at things, I've changed my mind.
Gold - Campbell
Silver - Edwards
Bronze - I'm really going out on a limb and picking Tezzhan Naimova (Bulgaria). Provided, of course, that she's not caught up in the same problems as other top Bulgarian women.
Track on TV
Friday, August 10
Sports Time Ohio, 7:00-8:00 PM
Jesse Owens Returns to Berlin
(repeats 8/12 at 1 AM, 8/13 at 3:30 AM, 8/16 at 2:30 AM, and 8/19 at 1 AM)
Saturday, August 11
Fox College Sports Atlantic, 6:30-8:30 AM
SEC Outdoor Championships
Saturday, August 25
CBC, 3:00-6:00 PM
World Championships
Versus, 6:00-8:00 PM
World Championships
Sunday, August 26
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM and 6:00-8:00 PM
World Championships
NBC, 12:30-2:30 PM
World Championships
CBC, 3:00-5:00 PM
World Championships
(repeats at 12:30 AM)
Monday, August 27
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 9:00-11:00 AM, 3:00-5:00 PM, 7:00-9:00 PM
World Championships
Tuesday, August 28
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 9:00-11:00 AM, 3:00-5:00 PM, 7:00-9:00 PM
World Championships
Wednesday, August 29
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 9:00-11:00 AM, 3:00-5:00 PM, 7:00-9:00 PM
World Championships
Thursday, August 30
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 9:00-11:00 AM, 3:00-5:00 PM, 7:00-9:00 PM
World Championships
Friday, August 31
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 9:00-11:00 AM, 3:00-5:00 PM, 7:00-9:00 PM
World Championships
Saturday, September 1
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 9:00-11:00 AM, 9:00-11:00 PM
World Championships
CBC, Noon-1:00 PM and 4:00-6:00 PM
World Championships
NBC, 12:30-2:30 PM
World Championships
Sunday, September 2
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 6:00-8:00 PM
World Championships
NBC, 1:00-3:00 PM
World Championships
Monday, September 3
CBC, 12:30-2:30 AM
World Championships
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 4:00-6:00 PM
World Championships
Saturday September 8
CBC, 2:00 PM
Zurich Golden League
Saturday September 15
CBC, 2:30 PM
Brussels Golden League
Sunday September 16
CBC, 4:00 PM
Berlin Golden League
December 1
NBC, 4:30-6:00 PM
Ironman Triathlon World Championships
Sports Time Ohio, 7:00-8:00 PM
Jesse Owens Returns to Berlin
(repeats 8/12 at 1 AM, 8/13 at 3:30 AM, 8/16 at 2:30 AM, and 8/19 at 1 AM)
Saturday, August 11
Fox College Sports Atlantic, 6:30-8:30 AM
SEC Outdoor Championships
Saturday, August 25
CBC, 3:00-6:00 PM
World Championships
Versus, 6:00-8:00 PM
World Championships
Sunday, August 26
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM and 6:00-8:00 PM
World Championships
NBC, 12:30-2:30 PM
World Championships
CBC, 3:00-5:00 PM
World Championships
(repeats at 12:30 AM)
Monday, August 27
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 9:00-11:00 AM, 3:00-5:00 PM, 7:00-9:00 PM
World Championships
Tuesday, August 28
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 9:00-11:00 AM, 3:00-5:00 PM, 7:00-9:00 PM
World Championships
Wednesday, August 29
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 9:00-11:00 AM, 3:00-5:00 PM, 7:00-9:00 PM
World Championships
Thursday, August 30
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 9:00-11:00 AM, 3:00-5:00 PM, 7:00-9:00 PM
World Championships
Friday, August 31
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 9:00-11:00 AM, 3:00-5:00 PM, 7:00-9:00 PM
World Championships
Saturday, September 1
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 9:00-11:00 AM, 9:00-11:00 PM
World Championships
CBC, Noon-1:00 PM and 4:00-6:00 PM
World Championships
NBC, 12:30-2:30 PM
World Championships
Sunday, September 2
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 6:00-8:00 PM
World Championships
NBC, 1:00-3:00 PM
World Championships
Monday, September 3
CBC, 12:30-2:30 AM
World Championships
Versus, 1:00-3:00 AM, 4:00-6:00 PM
World Championships
Saturday September 8
CBC, 2:00 PM
Zurich Golden League
Saturday September 15
CBC, 2:30 PM
Brussels Golden League
Sunday September 16
CBC, 4:00 PM
Berlin Golden League
December 1
NBC, 4:30-6:00 PM
Ironman Triathlon World Championships
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